Fantasy golf advice from Round 2 of WGC-Mexico Championship

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Ask any tournament setup staff how it wants a golf course to play and two goals will command the response: fair and consistent. No matter the level of difficulty, fairness is universal. Consistency, on the other hand, factors in only the 18 holes presented. Variables such as the speed of the greens, both for practice and across the course, as well as the height of the rough, are baseline expectations for a singular host. This says nothing of a course’s evolution over time, however. It can be consistent exclusive of how it scores year to year. Yet, even if a host track for a PGA TOUR event tried, it would have a hard time replicating what TPC Deere Run has accomplished for the John Deere Classic. Since 2009, the field scoring average hasn’t varied more than one-half stroke from the highest to the lowest. Last year’s clip of 69.896 on the par 71 marked the toughest the course has played during any of the last eight years. Angling hard at his next title. A solo eighth at the U.S. Open and T3 at the Travelers Championship in his last two starts are among five top 10s in 2017. Debutant who checks all of the other boxes. Usually a standout on Bermuda greens, lost in a playoff at TPC River Highlands (bentgrass) after a T5 in his debut there last year. The 2014 champ is in a career-defining stretch that includes a close call at Erin Hills. Eighth on TOUR in strokes gained: putting and 17th in birdie-or-better percentage. He’s risen 16 spots to 18th in Presidents Cup points with seven consecutive paydays, four of which for a top 10. T9 at Greenbrier. T3 in last appearance at the Deere in 2015. Rested since winning the Quicken Loans National, which punctuated a season’s worth of impressive showings. Among the best ball-strikers. Four top 25s in seven tries here. He’s been trading memorable performancs with those he’d rather forget for three months, but he’s earned benefit of the doubt. Averaged 68.38 in last eight rounds at the JDC. Returns not only to defend his title but also after five weeks sidelined with a strained tendon in his left shoulder. Scoring average in last 20 rounds at TPC Deere Run is 67.20. The three-time champ and tournament’s all-time earnings leader has enjoyed a noisy 2017 that’s included a T7 at Colonial and a T16 at the U.S. Open. Chased P2 at QLN with steady-not-spectacular T45 at Greenbrier. Penchant for red numbers plays at Deere, but it’s been six years since he put four rounds together for T5. Perfect in nine trips (2002, 2008-2015) with four top 15s. Fresh off a T9 at Greenbrier where he was ninth in strokes gained: putting. Co-leads the TOUR in scrambling. His phenomenal record here speaks for itself, but he’s going to need to tap into its strength to reverse a continually disappointing season. Just 103rd in FedExCup points. Thoroughbred for TPC Deere Run since 2014. He’s gone T7-T5-T5 with a scoring average of 66.92 since. Tied for fifth two weeks ago at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm. Surging. Season-best T3 at The Old White TPC. He’s 4-for-4 at TPC Deere Run, but his final-round scoring average is at least four strokes higher than any of the first three. Arguably most comfortable on bentgrass greens, evident again recently with a T10 at Memorial and T17 at Quicken Loans. Finished T4-T13-T8 here from 2013-2015. Nearly five months have elapsed since his last top 10 in a stroke-play event in the U.S. Snared one here last year with a T8. T13 in prior visit in 2014. Scored 14-under 270 in both. Power Rankings: John Deere Classic Rank Player Comment Bubba Watson, William McGirt and Greenbrier Classic runner-up Robert Streb are among the notables who will be included in Tuesday’s Fantasy Insider. One of the occasional narratives tossed around is that a golfer is unlikely to find his game on such-and-such a track. That’s usually due to a specific set of challenges that requires an elevated level of confidence and recently proven execution upon arrival. Almost never discussed is where he can find it. TPC Deere Run isn’t in Iowa – it’s close – but it is heaven. In 2016 and for the second consecutive edition, the 7,268-yard test yielded fairways-hit and greens-in regulation splits north of 70 percent. This supports why the D.A. Weibring design is one of the most scorable courses of the season in addition to its reputation as one of the most consistent. The entire field of 156 not only knows exactly what it needs to do to compete and contend, but there’s no guesswork in the context of how the course will play. The Confidence Factor on Tuesday will examine which elements of proficiency are projected to define the champion. Mother Nature makes no promises for glorious days in the summer in the heartland, but the weather forecast is quite favorable throughout the tournament. Plenty of sunshine will lift daytime highs well into the 80s. Light winds will help take a bite out of the thickness in the air. ROB BOLTON’S WRITING SCHEDULE PGATOUR.COM’s Fantasy Columnist Rob Bolton will be filing his usual staples leading up to this week’s event. Look for the following columns this week. MONDAY: Rookie Ranking, Qualifiers, Reshuffle, Medical Extensions, Power Rankings TUESDAY*: Sleepers, The Confidence Factor, Fantasy Insider WEDNESDAY: One & Done THURSDAY: Ownership Percentages in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, One & Done and Champions One & Done presented by SERVPRO * – Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO, which also publishes on Tuesdays.

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PEBBLE BEACH, Calif. – Aaron Wise beat Brooks Koepka by two shots in the final round of THE NORTHERN TRUST during last season’s FedExCup Playoffs but walked off the course knowing he needed to adapt to compete with the PGA TOUR Player of the Year. Neither had won the opening Playoff (Wise was fifth, Koepka eighth) but Wise had paid particular attention to Koepka’s ability to hit mid-irons out of the rough and on to the greens during their pairing. The former college star knew there was no way he could do that with his slight frame and if he was to continue his winning habits, he felt he might need to change things up. As a result Wise has since put on 20 pounds of muscle. It was an interesting choice given he had already won the NCAA Championship with Oregon and had trophies from the Mackenzie Tour – PGA TOUR Canada, the Web.com Tour and the PGA TOUR. He is the reigning PGA TOUR Rookie of The Year thanks mainly to his win at the AT&T Byron Nelson last year. So far this season Wise is 101st in the FedExCup with his lone top-10 coming last November at the Mayakoba Golf Classic. Stats suggest it is not getting used to his new frame that is the problem, unless the extra muscle has him hammering putts a little too hard. While ranked 16th on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee Wise is 176th in Strokes Gained: Putting. But on Thursday at the U.S. Open Wise produced his best opening round of the year. He shot a 5-under 66 at Pebble Beach to join a four-way tie for second, just one behind Justin Rose and gained 4.36 strokes on the greens in the round, ranked fourth in the field. “It was solid, it was nice to get my putter going. That’s kind of what’s been missing this whole year for me in a way. And today I was able to putt well,â€� Wise said. “Just really matching line and speed. I don’t think it is stroke-related at all. It’s just reading the putt correctly and hitting it with the appropriate speed and just been doing a lot of drills to emphasize that and it seems to be working.â€� But back to Koepka, the man who has won four of his last eight majors. Wise has built up a friendship with him. And is still trying to learn from him. They played a practice round together this week where Wise was once again keenly observing. “Something I can take away from him is just his calmness,â€� Wise said. “He’s literally the calmest person in the world. It’s just a calming influence and I can kind of just take away his mentality towards these (events), and the fact that he really slows things down and calms things down even more and that works well for him.â€� Just like Koepka Wise isn’t short on confidence. He expects more than he has delivered thus far this season but knows there is still time. He hopes that patience is rewarded. “Winning is kind of a habit,â€� he explains. “The only way you know you can do it is if you actually do it and put yourself in those situations over and over again. And winning last year… just makes you hungrier and makes you want to get there more. “I haven’t had exactly the best year yet but we still have two majors left and a WGC event and the Playoffs. There are still some big events ahead of me and I don’t need to kind of rush and think that this year is over almost already.â€�

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