NBA Veteran Extensions Have Increased 900 Percent Since 2011 CBA

Front office executives have communicated to multiple reporters the expectation that the 2025 NBA offseason will likely be an eventful one and even “might be the craziest ever.” Both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant could be traded with intriguing pieces certain to be dealt in return, while the Boston Celtics are expected to trade one or more key pieces as well. It will be part of the NBA’s ongoing trend of players becoming more likely to change teams via trade rather than free agency.

“It’s gonna be a crazy summer,” one Western Conference executive projects. “There’s going to be a lot of movement.”

“Trades are going to be the marquee aspect because there’s a number of high-level players [available] and there aren’t really any marquee free agents,” adds another team’s salary cap strategist.

Major roster moves are now happening more and more via trades rather than free agency, in part due to the NBA making it easier for players to sign extensions since the 2017 collective bargaining agreement. Under the 2011 CBA, there were an average of just two veteran extensions per season and that increased to 10 under the 2017 CBA. Since the 2023 CBA, there have been average of 20 players to sign extensions per season. The increase of 900 percent over the timespan doesn’t even include rookie-scale or designated player extensions.

Durant is an example of a player who likely wouldn’t have reached free agency as he did in 2016 had the supermax extension been available to he and the Oklahoma City Thunder. The supermax was instituted, at least in part, due to his exit to the Golden State Warriors.

The free agent class is a down one with James Harden, Kyrie Irving and LeBron James amongst the big names, who also all are expected to re-sign with their incumbent teams. Julius Randle and Myles Turner are also expected to re-sign with their current teams in free agency. Jonathan Kuminga, Josh Giddey and Quentin Grimes are a trio of prominent restricted free agents.

“I think this offseason, too, there’s going to be a lot of movement around the NBA,” Rob Pelinka said at the conclusion of the Los Angeles Lakers’ season. “It just feels that way. There’s so many aggressive leaders of organizations that are expecting, now, success. And so I think there will be a lot of opportunities for us to look at – I really do. I’m excited about the offseason and what’ll come our way.”