Woods needs miracle to make it to East Lake

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2023 Butterfield Bermuda Championship, Round 1 Scoring Conditions: Overall: -3.22 strokes per round Morning wave: -3.38 Afternoon wave: -3.06 Current cutline (top 65 and ties): 66 players at -4 or better (T54) Top 3 projected cutline probabilities: 1. 5 under par: 42.4% 2. 4 under par: 24.8% 3. 6 under par: 23.0% Top 10 win probabilities: 1. Denny McCarthy (T3, -8, 12.6%) 2. Adam Schenk (T3, -8, 7.4%) 3. Robby Shelton (T3, -8, 6.0%) 4. Austin Smotherman (T1, -9, 5.5%) 5. Seamus Power (T16, -6, 4.7%) 6. Greyson Sigg (T8, -7, 4.4%) 7. Harrison Endycott (T1, -9, 4.3%) 8. Thomas Detry (T8, -7, 3.6%) 9. Alex Smalley (T16, -6, 3.5%) 10. Justin Lower (T8, -7, 3.4%) NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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Here are nine tidbits from the first round of The Honda Classic that gamers can use tomorrow, this weekend or down the road. Be looking for the Emergency 9 shortly after the close of play of each round of the tournament. Know Thy Enemy These were the top-10 picked golfers in the PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO. People’s Choice No champion has defended at the Champion Course at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida but that didn’t stop you all from making the 2017 champ the No. 1 selection above. Usually posting 71 on a par-70 layout in round one isn’t anything to write home about. With the wind blowing and the greens a bit crusty, T36 with a round OVER par isn’t the end of the world (T36). There were only 20 players in red figures in round one. Morning Show Another week, another Alex Noren sighting as the Swede is having little trouble adapting to TOUR courses. His 66 (-4) in the morning wave included five birdies against only one bogey. After the round he suggested on television that the key was an “iron paradise”. He’s fifth in strokes-gained: approach-the-green and was also fourth in strokes-gained: putting. Nice combo.   Afternoon Edition Webb Simpson matched Noren’s score, total birdies and bogeys in the afternoon wave as they share the lead after 18 holes on 66 (-4). Simpson is making his first appearance here since 2011 and had only one previous round of eight in red figures (67). He leads the tournament in strokes-gained: putting. Wood(s)land Tiger Woods ground out a round of even-par in the early wave. I’m not sure what’s going on here as gamers made him only the 17th-most selected player in the PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO after he was the 13th-most selected last week. I guess the MC scared a few off but today’s round of even-par should rekindle some interest. If he’s on your bench, you have a very difficult decision for tomorrow afternoon but the way he hit it tee-to-green today has the arrows pointing up! … Gary Woodland has never missed in five tries including cashing T2 last year and T6 in 2011. Of his previous 19 rounds entering the week, 10 were par or better. He sits T69 (+3) but hit 10 of 14 fairways and 12 of 18 GIR so I’m sticking around for round 2. Worry? Who Me? If the wind blows all day again like it did on Thursday, I’m going to suggest that +3 should find the weekend comfortably. The forecast suggests even breezier conditions for Friday morning with a slight decrease later in the afternoon. Remember, since 2013 only three players have posted all four rounds in the 60’s so don’t let one in the black get you down. Morgan Hoffmann, who shot 67 in round one (T3) did it last year as he tied second. Justin Thomas, who also shot 67, performed the feat two years ago as he took home T3 cash. Ryan Palmer’s quartet of 60’s saw him enter a playoff quartet in 2014 that was eventually won by Russell Henley.   Collateral Damage Rory McIlroy, who made a double-bogey seven on his final hole to drop from T21 to T56, gave some interesting thoughts last week at Riviera regarding playing with Woods. He suggested the “circus” which surrounds him in the gallery each time he plays is a “two-shot disadvantage”. The Twitter-verse suggested today that the galleries following today were larger than both Torrey Pines and Riviera. Woods was even today but his playing partners, Brandt Snedeker and Patton Kizzire, both carded 74 (+4).   The “Nappy Factor” Conundrum Mac Hughes opened with 69 last year and eventually collected for T66 in his first appearance. This year his opening round 67 included a run of six birdies in seven holes on the front nine after firing two-over-par on his first nine, the back nine. He bogeyed his last hole to sit one behind the leaders. Hughes, whose wife gave birth to their first child in late October, entered the week without a paycheck in eight events this season. There’s always an exception to any rule! Study Hall There were only two, bogey-free rounds on the day as Daniel Berger (T3) and Adam Schenk (T12) shared that honor. … Bud Cauley posted 80 and WD as he cited a bothersome wrist … Martin Kaymer also cited a wrist issue as he hung it up after his 75. According to Kaymer’s Twitter feed, this is his first in-tournament WD in his career. At No. 82 in the OWGR we won’t have to worry about whether or not he’s playing in the WGC-Mexico Championship next week. … Danny Lee walked off the course with three holes remaining as he told officials he was dealing with a family issue. Thoughts and prayers for the Lee family at this time.

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