Let’s say you were drafting a team of players based on a 10-year time horizon. How long would it take to pick Jon Rahm? Just 27 years old, Rahm is a recent world No. 1 and in June will defend his U.S. Open title at The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts. He has led the PGA TOUR each of the last two seasons in Strokes Gained: Total and goes into this week’s Mexico Open at Vidanta as the season leader in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (+1.30 per round) and greens in regulation (73.5%). Since Strokes Gained tracking began in 2004, only one player has finished a TOUR season atop both of those statistical categories: Sergio Garcia in 2005. Let’s look at this week’s runaway pre-tournament favorite in Mexico, his statistical road to becoming a TOUR star, and why he’s poised to be one of the best players in the sport for years. RAPID RISE Rahm spent 60 weeks as the top-ranked amateur in the world, a record for the WAGR until earlier this year. As a 20-year-old amateur, he finished tied for fifth at the 2015 WM Phoenix Open, the first amateur to top-five in a TOUR event in seven years. His 11 tournament wins at Arizona State are second-most in program history, trailing only Phil Mickelson (16). Rahm was considered a can’t-miss prospect. He has not missed; to say he adapted quickly to the pro game is an understatement. In his first TOUR start as a pro, the 2016 Quicken Loans National, Rahm held the 36-hole co-lead and tied for third. Had he played enough rounds to officially qualify, Rahm would have finished his 2015-16 season in the top five on TOUR in birdie average, scoring average, Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Strokes Gained: Putting. Rahm collected his first TOUR victory at the 2017 Farmers Insurance Open, becoming the first player to win his debut at the Farmers since Arnold Palmer in 1957, and the first player to eagle the 72nd hole to win the event since Tiger Woods in 1999. Four years later, Rahm would join Woods as a U.S. Open champion at Torrey Pines, claiming his first major championship win. BALANCED GREATNESS Since the beginning of 2020, Rahm is averaging 1.90 Strokes Gained: Total per round. Not only is that the highest average of any player on TOUR in that span, it’s 0.32 strokes ahead of second-best, Webb Simpson. The difference between Rahm and Simpson – one and two – is the same as the gap between Simpson and Will Zalatoris, who ranks 10th. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking is a statistic that combines the number of shots a player gains per round against the field with his drives and approach play. Rahm leads the TOUR in that statistic since January of 2020, at +1.43 strokes per round. Collin Morikawa is second at +1.41. While some rely on a singular aspect of their game, Rahm can do it all, which separates him from the pack. Since the beginning of 2020, there are more than 230 players with 40 or more rounds measured by ShotLink. Of that group, only three players have averaged 0.4 Strokes Gained or more Off-the-Tee, Approach and in Short Game (Around-the-Green plus Putting): Rahm, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay. Another way to illustrate that balance is through percentage of strokes gained – how much does each discipline (Off-the-Tee, Putting, etc.) factor into a single player’s success? There are 59 players averaging at least 0.50 Strokes Gained: Total per round since January of 2020. Only 11 of them owe at least 15% of that sum to each of Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Approach and Putting. Rahm is one of them. Let’s go back even further, though – to Rahm’s professional debut. Since June of 2016, there are more than 200 statistically-qualified players on TOUR. Only two of them have gained a quarter of a stroke or more on the field, per round, in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach, and Strokes Gained: Putting – Rahm and Schauffele. Since turning pro, Rahm has been elite off the tee, but can attribute his consistency to being well above average in every facet of the game. MAJOR CONSISTENCY That balanced performance has translated nicely at the game’s biggest championships. A brilliant Saturday 65 at the 2018 Masters pushed Rahm into major championship contention for the first time as a pro. He would ultimately finish fourth, his first career top-five in a major, and since then, he has added five more top-five finishes, trailing only four-time major winner Brooks Koepka for most in that span. Since 2018, Rahm is ranked fourth in scoring average in the majors, where he is fifth in Strokes Gained: Total. He’s second in cumulative score to par (-44) and rounds in the 60s (28), again only trailing Koepka during that stretch. Rahm has finished in the top 10 in five of his last six major starts, the only exception coming at the recent Masters (T-27). LOOKING FOR PUTTING REBOUND Rahm has struggled a bit this season on the greens, tumbling 90 spots in the Strokes Gained: Putting ranking – 132nd this season from 42nd in 2021. He has especially struggled from four to eight feet, where he currently ranks 191st on TOUR. Rahm was in the top 30 in that statistic last season. There is reason for optimism on this front, though. At the Masters, Rahm ranked 20th in Strokes Gained: Putting among players to make the cut, gaining one-third of a stroke per round on the field. A return to his old self on the greens could lead to a big summer.
Click here to read the full article…
