Wolff WDs from Farmers Insurance Open with hand injury

For decades, players and fans alike have shared the colloquialisms common with Augusta National strategy. From the hilly terrain to the nuanced putting surfaces, “missing it in the right place,” and all points in-between. In recent years, the advent of Strokes Gained and its application in the major championships have provided a deeper understanding of what is required to win. That includes at Augusta National, where analytics have helped supplement the recent on-course stories played out by the world’s best. Its reputation as a ‘second shot’ golf course becomes even more fortified with a deep dive into the numbers. Little Penalty for Missing Fairway In order to best explain the significance of approach play at the Masters, the story begins with what players don’t have to worry about off the tee: rough. Annually, Augusta National yields the lowest penalty for missing fairways among major Tour venues around the world. Consider the rate at which players make birdie or better on certain holes across the last 10 Masters. On seven of 14 holes (par 4s and 5s), there is a difference of less than 10% in birdie-or-better rate depending on whether or not a player hits the fairway. For example, at the fifth hole, players who hit the fairway make birdie or better 8.7% of the time. Players who miss the fairway, 4.7%. Since 2010, players to finish in the top 10 at the Masters have averaged 9.6 fairways hit per round. Every other finisher at Augusta in that span has averaged almost the same total: 9.5. So while nobody wants to be stuck behind a pine tree, the numbers say that accuracy off the tee isn’t a significant advantage at the season’s first major. Approach Play Paramount In any given PGA TOUR season, a look at the Strokes Gained: Approach leaders often closely resembles the top of the Official World Golf Ranking. Six of the top-12 in this week’s OWGR are also ranked 12th or better in Strokes Gained: Approach per round this season on TOUR. That is to say, strong iron play is a prerequisite for great golf almost all the time. That is even more true at Augusta National, where five of the last seven champions have ranked top-five in the field that week in Strokes Gained: Approach. Jordan Spieth leads all players in that statistic since 2015, averaging 1.17 Strokes Gained: Approach per round. It’s no coincidence that he’s also the leader in cumulative score to par (45-under) and birdies-or-better (141) in that same stretch. Over the last eight PGA TOUR seasons, tournament winners have gained 35.4% of their strokes against the field with their approach play, the highest percentage of the four Strokes Gained disciplines (Off-the-Tee, Around-the-Green and Putting being the others). At the Masters in that span, that number is a bit higher, 36.0%. While this doesn’t seem like an enormous gap, the margin at which the best iron players can separate themselves from the pack is clearly larger at Augusta than at the typical PGA TOUR venue. How about the more traditional metric of greens in regulation? Since 2012, nine of 10 Masters winners have ranked inside the top-seven that week in greens in regulation, averaging a stout 73.6%. The field average in that span is 61.3%. For the winners of every other PGA TOUR event in that span, the average GIR rate is 74.1% – not quite as high an advantage over the field (about 66%). There have been 10 Masters victories by three or more strokes since 1996. All 10 of those champions ranked sixth or better for the tournament in greens hit, with four of them leading the field outright. The Greens at Augusta National How does the significance of approach play compare to putting? Again, the margins are small, but they add up quickly when it comes to determining who wins the Green Jacket. For the last seven winners (as far back as the data goes), 33.6% of the strokes gained by tournament winners have come on the greens, a bit less than on approach (36.0%). In seven of those 28 rounds, winners have had negative Strokes Gained: Putting. That is only the case for five rounds when it comes to approach play. Five of the last six Masters winners have ranked outside the top-five that week in Strokes Gained: Putting; only two have done so in Strokes Gained: Approach. The four players with the most Strokes Gained: Putting per round at the Masters since 2015 are Rickie Fowler (+1.60), Russell Henley (+1.47), Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.85) and Justin Rose (+0.82). Tiger Woods’ 2019 Triumph Three years ago, Tiger Woods won his fifth Masters title thanks to a week of exquisite, vintage approach play. Woods hit more than 80% of his greens in regulation, most of any player in the field and the most by an April Masters champion since Tiger himself 18 years prior. He also led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining more than a full stroke in Rounds 1, 2 and 3, and a whopping 2.87 on Sunday. In all, more than 57% of Woods’ total strokes gained against the field for the week came from his approaches. Whoever authors their winning Masters story this week will likely follow a similar formula.

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Round 1 of THE ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP @ SHERWOOD begins Thursday. Here’s how to follow the action. Leaderboard Full tee times HOW TO FOLLOW Television: Thursday-Sunday, 5 p.m.-8 p.m. ET (Golf Channel) PGA TOUR LIVE: Thursday-Sunday, 12:45 p.m.-8 p.m. ET (Featured Groups) Radio: Thursday-Friday, 2 p.m.-8 p.m. Saturday-Sunday, 3 p.m.-8 p.m. (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com/liveaudio). FEATURED GROUPS Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Patrick Reed Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson Jon Rahm, Justin Rose, Hideki Matsuyama Tiger Woods, Matthew Wolff, Xander Schauffele MUST READS Power Rankings Expert Picks Tiger, Sherwood a perfect fit Tiger set to defend at THE ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP @ SHERWOOD Strong Japanese contingent set for this week Tiger’s best stats from his 82 wins

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SAN ANTONIO — The co-leaders after three rounds at the Valero Texas Open spoke on a darkening Saturday night about their hopes to play hard and well for one more day. Neither mentioned the personal stakes. One wants to win for the first time in 83 starts on the PGA TOUR. The other wants to win for the first time period. RELATED: Full leaderboard | Wallace plays with new cross-handed swing The last group in the final round of the oldest professional tournament in Texas, the one celebrating its 99th year on the TOUR, will feature Jordan Spieth and Matt Wallace at 12 under par, with Charley Hoffman two strokes behind them. Spieth, a Texan who has yet to triumph in his home state, looks to summon the brilliance of his first five seasons, when he won 11 times, including three majors. Wallace, an Englishman with 36 TOUR starts since 2017, has never finished better than third. Hoffman has no victories since the 2016. That was right here at TPC San Antonio, in the sixth-oldest professional golf tournament in the world. The three of them separated themselves on a cool, gloomy afternoon after rain postponed play for two and a half hours. Spieth and Wallace shot 5-under 67. Hoffman shot 65. They played the back nine in a combined 14 strokes under par, which bodes well for those who believe in momentum carried over. Spieth has had his opportunities in a resurgent 2021 season. He held a share of the 54-hole lead at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, his first since 2018. He finished tied for fourth. He did the same thing a week later, at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, but this time he had the 36-hole, too. He tied for third there. "I was pretty anxious to start that next day" in Phoenix, said Spieth, whose struggles since 2017 have been documented well and discussed widely, including after his even-par 72 in the fourth round in the desert. "I felt really calm at Pebble," he said, "and then been in contention a few times since." In his five starts in stroke-play tournaments since a missed cut in January at the Farmers Insurance Open, Spieth has had a reasonable chance to win four (he tied for 48th at THE PLAYERS Championship). In every one of them, he failed to break 70 in the final round. That pattern must end. "The goal this week was to get myself into contention and have a chance to win," Spieth said. "The next goal is to try and get myself into position to be in control on the back nine." Wallace knows and accepts that spectators at the Valero Texas Open, even in modest numbers in a pandemic, unanimously agitate for a Texan to prevail — or maybe even Hoffman, a Californian who, since 2006, has four finishes here inside the Top Five and six inside the Top 10. "Hopefully I won over some fans there today," Wallace said. Wallace, 30, has four international victories, all of them on the European Tour, but none in the U.S. "There's times in rounds where you know you need to make things happen and know you need to hole a putt at the right time," he said. "So I'll prepare myself for that and I'll think of the good stuff," he added. "That I've holed putts this week. I've pulled shots off." The winner of the Valero Texas Open gets a pair of Lucchese boots — crafted in Texas since 1883. Those are stakes of a different shape. The player who holes the most putts, pulls off the shots and produces enough of the good stuff gets to try them on for size.

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