Winner’s Bag: Sam Burns, Charles Schwab Challenge

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2021 TOUR Championship, Round 2 Top 10 win probabilities: 1. Jon Rahm (2, -16, 46.5%) 2. Patrick Cantlay (1, -17, 44.4%) 3. Bryson DeChambeau (3, -11, 3.2%) 4. Justin Thomas (4, -10, 1.5%) 5. Viktor Hovland (T5, -9, 1.0%) 6. Cameron Smith (T5, -9, 0.6%) 7. Harris English (T5, -9, 0.5%) 8. Tony Finau (T5, -9, 0.5%) 9. Rory McIlroy (T10, -8, 0.5%) 10. Louis Oosthuizen (T10, -8, 0.4%) Top Strokes-Gained Performers from Round 2: Putting: Hideki Matsuyama +2.9 Around the Green: Jon Rahm +2.4 Approach the Green: Louis Oosthuizen +1.9 Off-the-tee: Jason Kokrak +1.7 Total: Jon Rahm +3.7 NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the TOUR Championship, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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Hey! Remember us? Yeah, so you’re wish didn’t come true in the offseason. It’s still Glass and Rob analyzing the PointsBet boards for PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live. Better luck next time. Then again, Rob put up a decent fight last season to keep his card. He recorded two top 10s among seven top-30 finishes in this game. The highlight was the solo third on the timeliness of the rain at the conclusion of The Honda Classic. It no doubt aided in Sepp Straka hanging on for a breakthrough victory. Rob’s a lifelong Chicago Cubs’ fan, so it’s not the first time he’s benefited from weather late in a competition. Glass forever is the formidable foil, which is just how he likes it. He has Rob exactly where he wants him, or something like that. Our fellas haven’t wasted any time in latching hope to the shiny new toys, er, the latest Korn Ferry Tour Finals graduating class for the Fortinet Championship. As always, they’ve baked strategic advice and tips into their analyses below. Register for PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live here and monitor Rob’s and Glass’ progress as Influencers. For a broader explanation of the format and FAQs, click here. TOURNAMENT TO WIN Rob … Austin Eckroat (+12500) Not that anyone remembers – well, except for me – but I’m fresh off shutting out Glass in the 2021-22 season finale, so I open 2022-23 with the honor. That said, Glass totally has the right idea here. I’m done with limping in with odds shorter than five digits because even when my pre-tournament choices have been in contention on a Sunday and without me touching the dial, the odds have been longer on Sunday. I vow, never again. I’ll call Glass’ sophomore with Eckroat the rookie. He was the runner-up at the KFT Championship just down the road from Glass in The Crossroads of America. Rollovers of KFT studs into the fall portion of the TOUR schedule has been the real deal over time, so in this last experience of the phenomenon, I want to hop on for a ride. Glass … Brandon Wu (+12500) California love usually reigns here and so does painting fairways and greens. The Stanford alum sat 63rd in fairways hit and 19th in greens in regulation on TOUR last season, and he won’t be overwhelmed by his surroundings. With a pair of top-10 paydays and four of six finishes of T30 or better, he is trending in the right direction. As always with this early decision, start high and work your way back down, if necessary. TOP 10 Glass … Will Gordon (+1100) I’m not shy endorsing bombers this week and there are plenty entered. His second tour on TOUR sees him roll into town in fantastic form. A pair of T5s preceded his win on Poa annua at Albertsons in the KFT Finals. Grinding out cuts in the next two events of the Finals suggests he’s not settling this time around. Rob … Justin Suh (+550) Here’s where we need to be sharp about our selection. With this bet historically opening during a reasonable hour in the U.S. after R1, but then infrequently at the same hour after R2 and R3, I want to open with a strong foundation who I believe will shorten after he signs his first scorecard as a member of the PGA TOUR. Suh is everything we want, so I was going to figure out a way to slot the KFT points leader times two into a bet. I’d have been elated with, say, +400. TOP USA PLAYER Rob … Maverick McNealy (+1600) At last check, Eckroat was +8000, which is favorable, but we don’t know how often this bet will unlock, if at all. Before you consider griping, remember, this is gambling and we’re all in it together. Homa is No. 1 in my Power Rankings – he should be as the defending champion and home-state stud – but in respect to the potential that he’s looking ahead to his debut in next week’s Presidents Cup, I’m sliding down to the No. 2. McNealy was the runner-up last year and Silverado is almost as comfortable a stage as its regional neighbor and his personal haunt, Pebble Beach. He’s among the best on TOUR without a victory, but he doesn’t need to win to yield coinage. Glass … Scott Harrington (+15000) Not his first rodeo as he’s cashed in both previous visits to Silverado (T36-T23). Has no problem sending it and his aggregate total of 20-under doesn’t have me panicking. Yet. Good news is the market can be timed over the weekend – if you handle it – and adjustments can be made. Let’s hope that’s not the case in Week 1! ROUND 1 LEADER Glass … Patrick Rodgers (+10000) Five straight entered, five straight paid. The last two have been 68 and 67 so I’m looking for another low one, this time off the second group Thursday morning. The former Stanford player is teeing it up here for the ninth consecutive season so I won’t have to worry about him being motivated getting out of bed. Always dream early so that you can find reality later in the day. Rob … Cam Davis (+6000) Silverado is the most equitable in terms of its nines and how every hole lines up within them. So, there’s no reason to consider either side of the course as the opening half among the morning wavers. With the tournament in my time zone, I don’t have to worry about this window closing before I’m lucid, so it’s nice to know that it’s not entirely a lottery ticket. The Aussie was lighting the world on fire for four months, so he’s a no-brainer to get after it out of the fifth threesome going off 10. Sure, like others, he might be distracted by what’s on deck at the Presidents Cup, but all we care about here is one round. I also believe in thinking less about the action in favor of letting the body and muscle memory do its thing, so therein lies the experiment. NOTE: While Glass and Rob typically stick with their selections as detailed in Pick ‘Em Preview, they are allowed the right to make changes at any time.

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