If scores seemed too low on Day 1, the notoriously tough golf course showed its might in the second round as many of the world’s best players struggled.
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Nate Lashley … At the risk of getting dramatic, this could be the first of two career-defining weeks for the 36-year-old. While he’s set for Playoffs eligibility via conditional status at worst for the remainder of this season, he has two starts to burn via a medical extension. Should he finish no worse than solo 34th at Bay Hill, he’d meet the terms of the medical and rise into the Major Medical category, thus securing a full-time schedule for 2018-19. That result also would trigger a spot in next week’s PLAYERS, which, of course, is the PGA TOUR’s richest tournament with a prize fund of $12.5 million. When a T8 in Puerto Rico lifted him inside the bubble to qualify for his debut in the limited field at Bay Hill, he opted for rest after committing to The Honda Classic, so all of the stars are aligned. In the vacuum of results and analytics, he’s 6-for-6 this season with an average finish a shade better than 27th place, and he’s 23rd in greens hit, fifth in proximity and T20 in strokes gained: putting, so he just needs to remain on his trajectory. Brian Gay … For what he lacks in distance off the tee, he more than makes up for on the greens. In fact, the 47-year-old leads the PGA TOUR in strokes gained: putting. So much for old-man nerves setting in. He’s 10-for-11 this season with four top 25s, the most recent of which last week at PGA National where he was perfect on 57 chances from nine feet and in, 22 of which were from outside three feet. Before you dismiss him at Bay Hill where bombers crowd the leaderboard, consider that three of his 10 cuts made on the course went for a top 25. That includes a T22 last year. Luke List … Because he’s 34 years of age and because he’s still chasing his first PGA TOUR victory, it can be easy to forget that he’s among his generation as one of the longest off the tee. So, while his inconsistency over time relegates his expectations to that of a moving target, he was a fixture of success in both previous trips to Bay Hill. In 2017, he finished T17 that included a bonus of ranking 14th in strokes gained: putting. Last year, slotted third in strokes gained: tee-to-green en route to a T7. Talor Gooch … He’s been all or nothing this season, but that’s one way to succeed with conditional status. All four of his cuts made in eight starts have gone for a top 20 – two were top fives – and he’s 43rd in the FedExCup. Fresh off a T20 at The Honda Classic where he co-led the field in greens in regulation and ranked T3 in par-5 scoring. For the season, he’s 19th in adjusted scoring. Opened strong in his first appearance at Bay Hill last year with respective rounds of 65 and 70 before fading into a T26. J.T. Poston … The 25-year-old is following a natural progression as a third-year member of the PGA TOUR. As a sophomore on conditional status last year, he qualified for the FedExCup Playoffs in 22 starts, a feat more difficult to achieve than most understand. Now 59th in the FedExCup with four top 25s among eight paydays this season, he’s making his debut at Bay Hill where his knack for scoring on the par 5s and putting can make noise. Currently T18 in par-5 scoring and inside the top third in strokes gained: putting. NOTE: Sleeper is a relative term, so Rob uses unofficial criteria to determine who qualifies. Each of the following usually is determined to be ineligible for this weekly staple: Winners of the tournament on the current host course; winners in the same season; recent major champions; top 50 in the Official World Golf Ranking; recent participants of team competitions.
The Hero World Challenge, hosted by Tiger Woods and his TGR Foundation, takes place at Albany in the Bahamas this week. The 20-man field was set to feature Woods in his first start since The 150th Open Championship in July but the 82-time PGA TOUR winner was forced to withdraw with plantar fasciitis. Sepp Straka gets the late call up against some elite talent. Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $300K Pitch + Putt [$100K to 1st] STRATEGY The field might be very limited with only 20 players, but it’s elite and features golfers from across the globe. All 20 reside inside the top 33 of the OWGR, giving us plenty of top options down the board to choose from for fantasy. Last year’s winner and runner-up (Viktor Hovland and Scottie Scheffler) are both in the field, as is 2018 winner Jon Rahm, who won twice on the DP World Tour this fall. With such a limited field — and every player guaranteed to get in four rounds of golf — every pick we make will have serious consequences for our daily fantasy golf lineups, so prepare for some big swings up and down the leaderboard this week as the event progresses. Albany is set near the sea and has little in the way of cover, with wide-open fairways tending to deemphasize power. Even with heavy winds from the sea often affecting play, the course itself is conducive to lower scoring. Albany has yielded a winning score of 18-under par or better in each of the past five seasons. The venue is unique in its setup in that designer Ernie Els set up Albany to play as more of a links-style venue, and Els even compared it stylistically to St. Andrews at one point. Rickie Fowler, who has proven himself to be an excellent links player (but who doesn’t qualify as a long hitter), is a past champion. The venue is also unique in that it features five par 5s and five par 3s (instead of the normal four we find on most par 72s). That makes this more of a shot-makers course and also siphons away some of the advantages that longer drivers have. Without a ton of the longer par 4s that we see on more traditional PGA TOUR setups, players who are weaker off the tee can challenge this week if they are firing with their approaches and putter. It’s near the end of the year and players will be coming in with varying form, but strong around the green and approach play has generally been the key to success at this event. Look for players who have been sharp in those areas this fall and who have experienced some success on the links in their careers already. GOLFERS TO CONSIDER Justin Thomas ($10,200) Taking Thomas this week could be a nice contrarian play in larger field tournaments on DraftKings. The American only played a couple of events over the fall with a T40 at THE CJ CUP in South Carolina being his best result. That’s not likely to get him a ton of eyeballs on a week where you only have to pay $500 more to get up to the red-hot Jon Rahm or have the choice of going more balanced by using players like Tony Finau ($9,300) and Viktor Hovland ($8,700) as your anchors. Thomas finally cracked the top 10 at this event in 2021, grabbing a T5 finish at Albany last season. With limited starts on his resume since the TOUR Championship, he should be eager to improve on that career-best finish in 2022. He’s also ranked first in around the green stats over the last 50 rounds in this field and has had plenty of success winning at non-mainland PGA TOUR courses over his career, grabbing wins in Malaysia, Hawaii (twice) and South Korea to date. While his price may seem high, his upside is every bit as elite as the other top players in the field, making him a solid contrarian play to build around in big field GPPs. Tommy Fleetwood ($7,300) Fleetwood is an experienced links player who has already had a terrific 2022 season and is coming off a win on the DP World Tour just a few weeks ago in South Africa. Like Thomas, Fleetwood has an elite short game that should allow him to handle this venue if and when the wind gets up. Fleetwood has also shown a ton of confidence with the putter over the back half of 2022, gaining strokes on the greens in six of his last seven PGA TOUR starts. A top-five finisher at The Open Championship in two of the past four years, Fleetwood also showed strong at Albany the last time he played this event in 2017 (his only invite), grabbing a share of third. Given his recent form and the success he’s had on links venues in the past, using him as a value play in this range makes plenty of sense for DFS purposes. Collin Morikawa ($6,900) Even in this elite field, Morikawa’s sub-$7,000 salary sticks out like a sore thumb. The two-time major winner may have had a down season by his standards, but he still finished top five at two of the four major championships in 2022, and encouragingly, looked better in his last fall start in Mexico where he grabbed a share of 15th place. Morikawa’s last two starts have also seen him gain strokes around the green which is perhaps a sign that the rest of his game is catching up to his elite iron play — which has him ranked third in this field in strokes gained approach stats over the last 50 rounds. Morikawa is an Open Championship winner who also prevailed for a big win against an elite WGC field down in Florida (at the very open and windy Concession Golf Course). He finished T5 at this event/venue last season and comes in with more motivation than his peers given he’s gone the entire year without a win. At under $7,000 on DraftKings, he’s criminally underpriced (even in this limited field) and makes for a terrific value target this week for fantasy. Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $300K Pitch + Putt [$100K to 1st] Place your golf bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app. I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
Roger Federer has remained on top of his sport longer than anyone expected. Tiger Woods’ downfall has been harsher than anyone could have imagined.
