Win probabilities: WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational

THE OVERVIEW The projected lowest number is 352. According to the PGA TOUR’s ShotLink team, that’s the minimum number of points needed after this week’s Wyndham Championship to make the 125-man field advancing to the FedExCup Playoffs. A year ago, the No. 125th player after Wyndham had 454 points. In 2015, it was 458 points. In 2014, it was 438 points. If the projections (the high-end projection is 363 points) hold after this week, 352 points is significantly lower than in recent years. In fact, it would be the lowest minimum points since 2011, when it took 334 points to make the Playoffs. Why the decrease? With FedExCup points now determining which players get their PGA TOUR cards, the FedExCup tie tables were adjusted this season in order to more closely align with the money list (which previously had been a determining card factor). The changes placed greater emphasis this season on high finishes, particularly top 10s – much like the standard purse breakdown. Theoretically, more points are now weighted at the top – and with four players winning three or more tournaments this season, that point distribution was weighted even more. Consider this: the top four in points going into Wyndham are Hideki Matsuyama (three wins), Justin Thomas (four wins), Jordan Spieth (three wins) and Dustin Johnson (three wins). They’ve combined for 10,694 points. A year ago, the top four in points going into Wyndham had a combined 9,500 points. By collecting nearly 1,200 more points, the top four have made the points list more top-heavy this season. Based on the 352 projection, that means 122 of the 125 players in points have already accumulated enough points to make the Playoffs – meaning that three spots are still up for grabs. The three players currently inside the top 125 who are not yet at 352 points are Seamus Power, Daniel Summerhays and Geoff Ogilvy. They are wearing the targets at Sedgefield that all others outside the top 125 now have their sights on. (Click here to see the live projected points standings). It’s the story within a story that makes the Wyndham Championship so intriguing each season. Sunday didn’t go the way he wanted at the PGA Championship. Hopefully he’ll focus on the positives from last week. His results on TOUR this season seem eerily similar to his results going into the 2015 Wyndham … which he won at age 51. His first win. His best major finish. It’s been quite a two weeks for Stroud, who’s reaping the benefits for his perseverance. THREE PLAYERS TO PONDER THE FLYOVER The 507-yard par-4 18th is the longest par-4 at Sedgefield; it was also the toughest hole on the course last year, playing to a stroke average of 0.301 strokes above par. That made it the sixth toughest closing hole on the PGA TOUR last season. Here’s an overview of the hole. THE LANDING ZONE The par-4 eighth is the easiest and shortest par-4 at Sedgefield, with a scorecard length of 374 yards. In two of the four rounds last year, the hole played at 351 yards. No player drove the green; the longest recorded drive was 318 yards. With a bunker guarding the left front of the green, and other bunkers along the fairway to the right of the landing zone, the play for most is to land short of the left bunker, leaving a short wedge shot. Players still have to guard against the creek running up the left side; 10 players took penalty strokes last year. Here’s a look at where all drives landed in 2016. WEATHER CHECK PGA TOUR meteorologist Stewart Williams says potential scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for Thursday. Added Williams: “Looks like an approaching cold front will keep the chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast Friday into Friday night. The front should slowly push to the south of the Triad on Saturday, decreasing our chances for thunderstorms as we go through the day. Partly cloudy skies can be expected on Sunday with highs in the upper 80s.â€� For the latest weather news in Greensboro, North Carolina, check out PGATOUR.COM’s Weather Hub. SOUND CHECK It’s a great course, a lot of character. You’ve got to hit a lot of different shots off the tees, into the greens, a lot of different clubs. I enjoy golf courses like that. ODDS AND ENDS 1. EASY GREENS. Last season, the greens at Sedgefield played as the second-easiest greens to hit from inside 125 yards of any course on TOUR. Players hit the green in 1,829 of 2,055 attempts (89 percent) from inside this distance. 2. 54-HOLE JINX. In the last 17 PGA TOUR events, the 54-hole leader has failed to convert that lead into victory a total of 15 times. The only player in that span to win after carrying the third-round lead is Jordan Spieth, who did it at both the Travelers Championship and The Open Championship. 3. TOP 5 OPPORTUNITY. Kevin Kisner, who at No. 9 is the highest-ranked FedExCup player in the field, is the only player who can move inside the top 5 should he win this week. 4. THREE OF 16. Of the 16 players who have qualified for the FedExCup Playoffs every year, three are in the Wyndham field – Bill Haas (34), Ryan Moore (67) and Luke Donald (105). All three are guaranteed a Playoffs spot for the 11th consecutive year.

Click here to read the full article…

Nearly eight decades ago, a young boy trounced through the woods in search of work. Neither of his parents played golf, but this son of an auto mechanic had heard that caddying could be a good source of extra income.   It was 4 miles from his house to Avon Fields Golf Course in Cincinnati, Ohio. He made the commute on foot.   “I didn’t mind the walk over in the morning, but the walk home in the dark was spooky,� Paul Thomas said. He punctuates this sentence with a laugh, an acknowledgement that this scene – a 10-year-old boy walking through dark woods on the way home from work – is a remnant of a bygone era.    Paul didn’t have his own golf clubs, so he played his first rounds with the rental sets available at Avon Fields. The course let caddies play on Mondays. He remembers winning the caddie championship a few years later in the pouring rain.   These were the humble beginnings of a golfing genealogy that produced one of today’s top players. Paul Thomas begat Mike Thomas who begat Justin Thomas, the winner of the 2017 FedExCup and the defending champion at this week’s PGA Championship.   Paul Thomas turned pro as a teenager, but not for the same reasons his grandson made a similar move at age 20. Justin was a phenom who’d prepared his entire life for the pro ranks. Paul left school early to make a living.   “I was forced out (of school) because of finances, and that was the first opportunity at halfway decent employment,� Paul said. “I know it sure didn’t pay much in those days.�   Paul was a lifelong club pro, but also an accomplished player who competed in the same events as Palmer, Nicklaus and Hogan. Before Justin Thomas won golf’s richest prize, Paul would regale him with tales from professional golf’s hardscrabble days. Hearing about his grandfather’s brushes with the game’s greats stoked Justin’s passion for the game.   “He’s told me the same stories a million times, but I never tell him to stop,� Justin said. “I keep all his voicemails.�   His grandparents’ presence behind the 18th green was the reason Justin got emotional before hitting the final putt of his four-stroke victory at last week’s World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational. Paul and Phyllis Thomas had never been on-hand for one of their grandson’s nine PGA TOUR victories. Paul enjoyed ice cream for breakfast in player dining before watching Justin conquer the same Firestone course where he played the PGA Championship in 1960. Paul made the cut with a second-round 72 that even bested the great Ben Hogan by a stroke. As the courses have gotten longer and the crowds have grown larger, it’s become harder for Paul and Phyllis to watch their grandson play golf. They follow closely from their home in Columbus, Ohio, though. Paul was one of the first to call Justin after he won last year’s PGA at Quail Hollow. Paul felt the tension when Justin stepped to the tee at the watery par-3 17th and celebrated when his grandson’s 214-yard 7-iron stopped within 2 feet of the hole. “He stood up there like a man and just staked it,� Paul said. Paul could appreciate such a shot because he grew up in an era that demanded toughness. He took a crack at the TOUR as a 25-year-old in 1957, back when professional golf was still gaining traction and players caravanned across the country to play for pittance. Paul Thomas (center) stands next to his son Mike and grandson Justin. (Submitted photo) “I wasn’t nowhere near good enough. I was just scraping it together, anyway,� Paul said. “The TOUR was just getting organized. It was nothing like it is today. You’d enter one tournament from the last one.�   Paul served as an assistant pro at several clubs before becoming the head professional at Ohio’s Zanesville Country Club in 1963. He was 31 years old, and already had been a professional for 13 years.    He held the post for more than a quarter-century while remaining one of the top players in the Central Ohio PGA. He played with Arnold Palmer on the PGA TOUR Champions, made the cut in three U.S. Senior Opens and even beat former U.S. Open champion Tommy Bolt in an 18-hole exhibition.   Paul was an old-school instructor – “I don’t believe in theory because no two people are the same,� he said – whose students included two future LPGA Tour winners, Tammie Green and Michele Redman, and Mike Thomas, the second-oldest of his four sons.   Green, whose seven wins included one major, the 1989 du Maurier, lists Paul as the biggest influence on her career. Mike Thomas was a good amateur and an all-Ohio Valley Conference honoree at Morehead State before following his father into the club pro ranks.   Mike, too, enjoyed a lengthy tenure at one club, Harmony Landing Country Club outside of Louisville, and Justin reaped the benefits. The members were supportive of their head pro’s son, allowing him full use of the course and practice facility.   “You could tell when he was 7, 8, 9, 10 years old, he had something. You could tell that there was a big possibility there,� Paul said. “I remember telling him a long time ago that, as well as he drives the ball, don’t spend your time hitting those irons. Get out there and hit the sand wedge and the pitching wedge.�   The Thomas men all have strong short games. The putter was one of the strongest clubs in Paul’s bag. Mike was influenced by his father’s devotion to that aspect of the game, and he enjoyed practicing shots that he could see go in the hole. And Justin followed his father to the chipping green, a constant site of competition between three generations of Thomas men.   Paul won’t take credit for his grandson’s success, though.   “I would say the most help I ever gave him was playing with him and talking to him,� he said. “His dad is his only teacher, and that’s the way it should be.� Paul’s stories “influenced Justin’s love and passion� for the game, Mike said. Paul’s success as a player helped him teach course management and the art of playing the game. The older Thomases could be overly technical, though, so Mike tried to keep his instruction of Justin simple, focusing on the fundamentals. And after struggling to meet his father’s high standards, Mike also wanted to ensure his son had fun on the course. “My dad will be the first to tell you that he was pretty hard on me,� Mike Thomas said. “He had fun, but when it came to competition he was hard on himself. He was hard on himself, so he was hard on me. “That was a different era. Those guys truly did dig it out of the dirt.� Paul was born in 1931 in Ashland, Kentucky, a steel town on the border of West Virginia, but his family moved to Cincinnati when he was 5. Two of his early assistant-pro jobs took him to York, Pennsylvania, and Tequesta, Florida, where he worked for Ohio native and established PGA TOUR winner Dow Finsterwald at Tequesta Golf Club. Tequesta is a short distance from Jupiter, where Justin Thomas and a parade of other PGA TOUR players now live.   In 1958, Paul returned to Cincinnati to work as an assistant pro at Western Hills Country Club. He quickly established himself as one of the state’s top players. He won that year’s Southern Ohio PGA Championship to qualify for the PGA Championship. He never made it to the national championship, though.   Paul was declared ineligible because his membership to his new PGA section hadn’t yet transferred. Finsterwald, his old boss, won with a final-round 67, finishing two shots ahead of Billy Casper. Paul’s favorite player, Sam Snead, finished third.   There would be other PGA Championship chances earned, however. Paul played at Firestone CC in 1960 and Olympia Fields in ’61, and he also competed in the 1962 U.S. Open at Oakmont.   He missed the 54-hole cut at Firestone but had good company: Hogan, weeks after nearly winning his fifth U.S. Open, also failed to qualify for the final round.   Thomas remained a stalwart in his PGA section, twice winning the Central Ohio PGA Championship. His best success came in his 40s and 50s; he finished T15 in the 1983 U.S. Senior Open and played with Palmer in the final round of the Citizens Union Senior Golf Classic in Lexington, Kentucky. Thomas trailed Palmer by just a stroke entering the final round, but shot a 77 to Palmer’s 67. Those numbers have long since faded. The memory hasn’t.   Paul, 86, still plays a handful of times per week and gives the occasional lesson. He’s shot his age every year since turning 64. And, of course, he watches his grandson succeed in the family trade.   “After he showed that he was going to make it, I told him, ‘Only you can screw this thing up. It’s up to you to make something out of yourself,’� Paul said. “And he sure did.�

Click here to read the full article…

Click here to read the full article…