Win probabilities: WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational

The beginning of the 2022-23 PGA TOUR season marks the end of an era. RELATED: Play Pick ‘Em Live | The First Look | Five Things to Know about the new season This week’s Fortinet Championship opens the last of 10 consecutive wraparound seasons. After the next FedExCup champion is crowned at the TOUR Championship in late August of 2023, there will be break of FedExCup action until January of 2024 when the following season launches. When considering only wraparound seasons, Silverado Resort and Spa’s North Course in Napa, California, has hosted in all but the first. The stock par 72 presents as a warm greeting for the latest Korn Ferry Tour graduating class as well as for returning members. For a brief review of the backdrop and more, continue reading beneath the ranking of those projected to contend. POWER RANKINGS: FORTINET CHAMPIONSHIP Draws and Fades will include reviews of 2020 champion Stewart Cink, Hideki Matsuyama, Webb Simpson, Davis Riley and other notables. Not unlike how East Lake Golf Club is the familiar setting for the TOUR Championship where last season concluded two weeks ago, Silverado sets up customarily for the in-crowd where the new season starts. Because they aren’t neutral sites, there are no surprises to everyone who’s been to either recently, but also there are no tricks for debutants. Silverado is the same as it ever was. Fairways are not overseeded, primary rough stands at three inches and the mostly Poa greens are prepped to measure 11½ on the Stimpmeter. This means that ball-striking among first-timers and hitting greens in regulation for all sets the stage for a chance to go into the books as the first winner of the season. Turning scoring opportunities into par breakers also is required. It’s a simple formula for which execution never is delivered by all 156 commits. Incidentally, because this is the last official stop of the summer in the Northern Hemisphere, it’s also the last maximum-strength field on a singular course for almost eight months. As they are every season, all four of the 156-man competitions in the interim will be contested on multiple courses. Last year’s scoring average of 71.04 at Silverado is essentially average with cooperating conditions. Scores may be higher this week but only marginally. Sustained moderate breezes will yield a few grimaces and wrinkled brows at times, but the weather will be ideal otherwise. Daytime highs in the 70s will accompany a mostly sunny sky throughout. In other words, in the context of the elements, none of the participants will be prevented from putting his best self on display. ROB BOLTON’S SCHEDULE PGATOUR.com’s Rob Bolton recaps and previews every tournament from numerous perspectives. Look for his following contributions as scheduled. MONDAY: Power Rankings TUESDAY*: Sleepers, Draws & Fades WEDNESDAY: Pick ’Em Preview SUNDAY: Medical Extensions, Qualifiers, Reshuffle * – Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, which also publishes on Tuesday.

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Tiger Woods paused just long enough to change into his signature red shirt between the third and fourth rounds of the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP in Chiba, Japan, on Sunday.  Now, after playing 29 holes and building a three-shot lead over Japan’s Hideki Matsuyama, he has history squarely in his sights. When players go back out to finish the final round at 7:30 a.m. Monday local time (6:30 p.m. ET Sunday on Golf Channel), Woods will be going for his 82nd PGA TOUR victory, which would tie Sam Snead for most all time.   RELATED: How to watch Round 4 | Chasing 82 | Visual Stories: Tiger’s Top 10 shots “Yeah, I have,â€� Woods said, when asked if he’d played this much golf in one day since he had his left knee operated on for the fifth time two months ago. “But it’s in a cart.â€� Woods has won in all sorts of ways. This one, should he hang on, has been a test of endurance. Tournament officials have been playing catch-up since Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club received 10 inches of rain in a typhoon that wiped out the second round before it began. Still, the first official TOUR event in Japan is on the verge of ending like so many before it.   “I think it’s the mind,â€� said Woods (64-64-66), when asked what was most taxing about playing so many holes Sunday, when he completed his round at 1:12 p.m. local time, changed his blue shirt for a red one, and went back out for the final round at 2 p.m. “Being in it for 10 hours is a long period of time … the mind tends to wander a little bit and just got to grab it and make it come back and be 100% committed on the shot.â€� Woods is also coming back from knee surgery. He considered having his left knee operated on for the fifth time in late 2018, but wanted to play a full schedule last season and put it off. He won the Masters Tournament, fell off, and after failing to qualify for the season-ending TOUR Championship two months ago, had the arthroscopic procedure done Aug. 20. “It’s great to see him healthy, first and foremost,â€� said reigning FedExCup champion Rory McIlroy (72-65-63), who is in fifth place, seven off the lead, with just two holes of his final round remaining. “Yeah, as soon as I get done tomorrow, I’ll be a very interested viewer.â€� Players were not re-paired after the third round, so even though Woods’ closest pursuer is Matsuyama, he is still playing with U.S. Open Gary Woodland. Both players are competing not only for the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP title but to justify a captain’s pick for the Presidents Cup in December. Woods will name his captain’s picks Nov. 7.  Woodland was considered a good bet to make the team even before the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP began; Woods, the U.S. Captain, was more of an unknown in light of his recent health issues. Now, however, both look likely to be playing for the U.S. at Royal Melbourne, Dec. 12-15.  “(Woods) played unbelievable today,â€� Woodland said after Sunday’s marathon session, which he finished at 12 under, tied with Sungjae Im, six back. “Let a couple get away on a couple par 5s, but pretty impressive the way he’s hitting the golf ball.â€� Play was called for darkness at 4:40 p.m. local time with 46 of 76 players still on the course.   Woods played his first 11 holes of the final round in 2 under, with three birdies and a bogey.  The ending looked all but written in stone as he completed his third round with a three-shot lead over Matsuyama, as he is 24 for 24 at closing out tournaments with a lead of three or more going into the final round. The lead reached five until Matsuyama birdied the 11th and 12th holes to get it back to three before players were pulled off the course for the day. “I have a lot of ground to make up tomorrow,â€� Matsuyama said. “I need to play well to even have a chance, but I will give it a shot and do my best.â€� Woods, who won the 2004 and ’05 Dunlop Phoenix tournaments in Japan, has won 93.1% of the time with at least a share of the 54-hole lead, tops on TOUR. Still, the scarcity of scoreboards on the course has given him pause as he’s tried to keep an eye on his closest pursuers. “We had to ask a few times what’s going on up there, to get updates,â€� he said. “That’s probably been the only thing that’s different than normal.â€� Well, that and the significance of a potential 82nd victory. Snead was 52 when he won his 82nd; Woods, who returned from back fusion surgery to win the TOUR Championship two seasons ago and the Masters last April, is 43.  They are the only two players with 80 or more TOUR titles, and soon, it seems, they will be tied at the top. “Well, if I do what I’m supposed to do, and get the job done, then I get a W,â€� Woods said. “I guess that will add up to the 82 number, but my main focus is doing what I need to do to get the W first.â€�

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Jon Rahm is coming off a forced layoff. The Bryson/Brooks feud enters a new chapter. Oh, and Phil Mickelson goes searching for that missing major title.

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