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Win probabilities: WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational

2020 World Golf Championships-FedEx St Jude Invitational, Round 1 Scoring Conditions: Overall: -0.29 strokes per round Top 10 win probabilities: Brooks Koepka (1, -8, 22.1%) Justin Thomas (T5, -4, 13.7%) Rickie Fowler (T2, -6, 9.6%) Brendon Todd (T2, -6, 5.4%) Bryson DeChambeau (T9, -3, 5.3%) Xander Schauffele (T15, -2, 3.6%) Matt Kuchar (T5, -4, 3.3%) Viktor Hovland (T9, -3, 3.1%) Hideki Matsuyama (T15, -2, 2.9%) Abraham Ancer (T9, -3, 2.7%) Top Strokes-Gained Performers from Round 1: Putting: Matthew Fitzpatrick +4.1 Around the Green: Robert Macintyre +2.1 Approach the Green: Brooks Koepka +3.3 Off-the-tee: Xander Schauffele +1.8 Total: Brooks Koepka +7.7 NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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Major Specials 2025
Type: To Win A Major 2025 - Status: OPEN
Scottie Scheffler+160
Bryson DeChambeau+350
Xander Schauffele+350
Ludvig Aberg+400
Collin Morikawa+450
Jon Rahm+450
Brooks Koepka+700
Justin Thomas+700
Viktor Hovland+700
Hideki Matsuyama+800
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PGA Championship 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+500
Scottie Scheffler+500
Bryson DeChambeau+1400
Ludvig Aberg+1400
Xander Schauffele+1400
Jon Rahm+1800
Collin Morikawa+2000
Brooks Koepka+2500
Justin Thomas+2500
Viktor Hovland+2500
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US Open 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+500
Scottie Scheffler+500
Bryson DeChambeau+1200
Xander Schauffele+1200
Jon Rahm+1400
Ludvig Aberg+1400
Collin Morikawa+1600
Brooks Koepka+1800
Viktor Hovland+2000
Justin Thomas+2500
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The Open 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+500
Scottie Scheffler+550
Xander Schauffele+1100
Ludvig Aberg+1400
Collin Morikawa+1600
Jon Rahm+1600
Bryson DeChambeau+2000
Shane Lowry+2500
Tommy Fleetwood+2500
Tyrrell Hatton+2500
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Ryder Cup 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
USA-150
Europe+140
Tie+1200

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Featured Groups: OHL Classic at MayakobaFeatured Groups: OHL Classic at Mayakoba

We head south of the border for this week’s PGA TOUR stop to see just who can keep their focus on work rather than relaxation in the gorgeous Playa Del Carmen region of Mexico. Perhaps the key to success at El Camaleon Golf Club is balancing the two to perfection, much like defending champion Pat Perez was able to do last year. Perez played sensational golf on the course and enjoyed the beauty of the region off it on his way to a great win. It started a career renaissance, which has also seen him win this season in Malaysia before his arrival ensuring he is the FedExCup leader up to this point. But he has some big stars standing in his way this time. Rickie Fowler is making his tournament and season debut. Patrick Reed, Charley Hoffman, Kevin Chappell, Si Woo Kim, Emiliano Grillo, Jhonattan Vegas and Anirban Lahiri all featured in the recent Presidents Cup and now find themselves in the Mexico field. There are five locals in the field: Abraham Ancer, Roberto Diaz, Carlos Ortiz, Jose de Jesus Rodriguez and Oscar Fraustro – who will all try to salute in front of the vocal home fans. Here are the featured groups. Playa Del Carmen falls in the same time zone as the East Coast. All tee times are Eastern Time. Rickie Fowler, Emiliano Grillo, Chesson Hadley: Fowler is making his debut on the season and in this event and will be hoping to start with a bang having already given up ground to plenty of his competitors. Grillo has already played three times this season and while he has made every cut he’s so fa failed to get things really going like he’d expect. Perhaps this is his week. The same could be said for Hadley who has been inside the top 5 the last three tournaments in a row. Is this the time he gets to the top? Tee times: Thursday 7:30 a.m. (ET) off 10 tee; Friday 12:00 p.m. off 1st tee Jhonattan Vegas, Kevin Chappell, Patrick Reed: An all Presidents Cup group this trio could certainly produce some fireworks. Expect Vegas and Reed to hunt aggressive looks at birdie while Chappell’s steady sublime ball-striking will ensure he’s not lacking chances. Vegas and Chappelll were winners last season… can they do it again? And will Reed return to glory? Tee times: Thursday 7:40 a.m. (ET) off 10 tee; Friday 12:10 p.m. off 1st tee Bryson DeChambeau, Si Woo Kim, Zach Johnson: DeChambeau is burning to get back out on course after making a run last week in Las Vegas only to fold late while Kim showed signs at the Presidents Cup that his PLAYERS championship victory was no flash in the pan. He’s looking to establish himself amongst the games super elite this season. Johnson comes in as understated as always. The two-time major champion is happy to let the others get the limelight – he will do his talking on the course. Tee times: Thursday 12:00 p.m. (ET) off 1st tee; Friday 7:30 a.m. off 10th tee Pat Perez, Charley Hoffman, Graeme McDowell: The last three champions of the event line up together. Perez comes in not only as the defending champion but also the FedExCup leader this season after his win at the CIMB Classic. He is the man with a target on his back. Chasing him down is Hoffman, who has good karma going for him after donating all his winnings from last week ($98,600) to the victims of the Las Vegas shooting. McDowell showed some sneaky form last week, coming home strong for a top-10… can he recapture his best at a happy hunting ground? Tee times: Thursday 12:10 p.m. (ET) off 1st tee; Friday 7:34 a.m. off 10th tee

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Kodaira storms from five back, beats Kim in playoff for first win at RBCKodaira storms from five back, beats Kim in playoff for first win at RBC

Coming from five behind at the start of the day, Satoshi Kodaira of Japan fires a final-round 66 to force a playoff, then birdies the third extra hole to defeat Si Woo Kim of Korea. Welcome to the Monday Finish, where Kodaira followed a second-round 63 with an even more impressive 66 two days later in windy weather, breaking through at scenic Harbour Town. FIVE OBSERVATIONS 1. Yes, Kodaira’s victory was surprising, even to him. For one thing, when he speaks of Japan’s most famous player, five-time PGA TOUR winner Hideki Matsuyama, Kodaira still speaks with the reverence Wayne and Garth once reserved for Aerosmith. “Hideki is a great player,� said Kodaira, who is in fact two years older than Matsuyama. “And of course I’m not as good as him, but I’m getting closer.� Before Harbour Town, Kodaira had missed the cut at the Sony Open in Hawaii and Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard; finished 54th at the World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship and T59 at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play; and peaked with a T28 at the Masters. His results hardly seemed to indicate that this was coming, and he came into the RBC ranked 46th in the world. (He’s up to 27th. Matsuyama is eighth.) On the other hand, Japan Golf Tour fans were perhaps less shocked. Kodaira, 28, is a six-time winner on that tour, and has also collected three second-place finishes, and five thirds. 2. Runner-up Si Woo Kim moved up 24 spots to 26th in the FedExCup, and he played some great shots under pressure. Alas, he had a bad putting day at exactly the wrong time. Many will look back on Kim’s missed birdie from 6 feet, 4 inches on the last hole of regulation, but that was part of a larger nine-hole stretch on the back nine in which he could not buy a birdie. Also, don’t forget that Kim would have still won by two had he not incurred a two-shot penalty for wiping sand off the green between his ball and the 14th hole Friday. Amazingly, despite a triple bogey there, he still shot a second-round 65. Silver lining: He’s rounding into form nicely for his title defense at THE PLAYERS Championship next month. “Even though I’m not an American player,� he said at Harbour Town, “I’m just incredibly grateful to see some of these fans cheering my name and cheering for me in the playoff.� 3. Luke List just keeps on knocking on the door, and as he said afterward, it seems likely to open for him sometime soon. The Vanderbilt product admittedly wasn’t sharp in the final round, but he still gave himself an excellent chance to join the playoff by parking his approach shot to 10 feet, 3 inches on the last hole of regulation. He missed, his face a picture of agony, and signed for a 1-over 72 to finish T3. The bigger picture, though, shows a positive trajectory: in 16 starts this season, List has nine top-25 finishes, including four top 10s. His best: a playoff runner-up to Justin Thomas at The Honda Classic. List, who is originally from Seattle but plays out of Virginia Country Club in Long Beach, Calif., moved from 20th to 11th in the FedExCup. 4. Ian Poulter finally ran out of gas, which was understandable given the run he’s been on, a six-week stretch of tournament play that began at the Valspar Championship outside Tampa. Poulter made a run to the quarterfinals at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play; won the Houston Open to earn a last-second Masters invite; and while he did little besides make the cut at Augusta National, he built a one-stroke lead through 54 holes at Harbour Town. Alas, after a 47-hole stretch without a bogey earlier in the tournament, Poulter shot a 4-over 75 to finish 9 under and T7, making five of his six bogeys on the inward nine holes. Still, it’s worth remembering Poulter came into last year’s RBC Heritage at 210 in the Official World Golf Ranking. He came into this one 31st, and is now 29th. Oh, and don’t look now, but it’s a Ryder Cup year. 5. Harbour Town was the week’s big winner, as usual. The 7,099-yard, par-71 stood its ground as the field averaged 70.847 for the week, and 12-under was good enough to get into the playoff. The par-3 14th hole gave players fits, and all week players commented on how the layout was proof that one need not build a course to be 8,000 yards long to create a challenge. “The fairways sometimes aren’t quite good enough,� Poulter said. “You have to hit the right or left half of them. And it’s a great test of golf. … It’s a very clever course. It’s not the longest one we play, but it’s probably the smartest one.� FIVE INSIGHTS 1. Kodaira became the third player to win a TOUR event this season after opening with a 73. Jason Day (Farmers Insurance Open) and Poulter (Houston Open) were the first two. Kodaira collected his first win in his 15th PGA TOUR start, and his longest made putt of the week, of 24 feet, 6 inches, came as he closed out Kim on the third playoff hole (17). 2. Kodaira separated himself from the field on his approach shots. He averaged 29 feet, 6 inches on his approaches, which was nearly six feet closer than the field (35 feet, 5 inches) and was the third best average proximity to the hole by a winner on TOUR this season. His third-round 63 marked the fourth round of 63 or better by a winner at the RBC. Peter Lonard went for 62 in the first round of the 2005 RBC, while Loren Roberts (round three, 1996) and Jim Furyk (round four, 2015) also shot 63 in winning efforts. 3. Since 2007, seven of the 11 RBC Heritage champions have qualified for the TOUR Championship. Kodaira said it has always been his dream to play the PGA TOUR, and verbally accepted membership Sunday. Should he formally do so, he would earn a two-year membership with his win, carrying him through the 2019-20 season. And his non-member FedExCup points would transfer over to the member list. Should he accept TOUR membership, his win would also get him into THE PLAYERS Championship, Fort Worth Invitational, the Memorial Tournament, The National, and the PGA Championship. For next season, he gets into the Sentry Tournament of Champions, CareerBuilder Challenge, Arnold Palmer Invitational, and RBC Heritage. 4. Harbour Town’s small greens highlighted the importance of good iron play. Kodaira was seventh in the field in strokes gained: approach-the-green, and Kim was 12th. Meanwhile, Bryson DeChambeau and Luke List, who tied for third, were second and third, respectively. 5. There were six bogey-free rounds Thursday, nine Friday, three Saturday, and none Sunday. TOP THREE VIDEOS

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