Win probabilities: Vivint Houston Open

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A victorious Justin Rose started Sunday at the World Golf Championships – HSBC Champions playing for second place. While he hadn’t given up at Sheshan International he was realistic… he trailed the world No. 1 golfer Dustin Johnson by eight shots and Johnson had a six-shot buffer on his nearest rival. Rose had been here before – chasing down a supremely talented and in form golfer – and always set himself mini challenges. This time he pitted himself in a fictional match play battle on the back nine when he made the turn still six back of the lead. “I played a game with myself where I said, okay, I’m 4-down to the golf course: Can I win my match. Or I was thinking: Can I tie my match. 13-under par was by goal, and I exceeded that in the end,â€� Rose said. Exceeded he did. Rose – who had three bogeys in his last four holes during a front-nine even-par 36 – found five birdies between 11 and 17 to shoot 5-under 31 and finish at 14 under for the tournament. Recently he was seven behind Marc Leishman with a round to go at the BMW Championship but just two behind second place. In January last year he was eight behind leader Justin Thomas at the Sony Open, but just one back of second. On both occasions, he played his mini games and targeted second place and succeeded. He knew to win he would need help from the leader so why not just focus on what he could control just in case it eventuated. Thomas and Leishman closed but this time Johnson spectacularly collapsed. And as such Rose was ready. Johnson, who had steadied after back-to-back bogeys to open his round in blustery and tough windy conditions, dropped shots on the 12th, 15th and 16th and the breakdown was complete after a 5-over 77. An incredible 10 shots worse than Rose. “It was the perfect type of weather conditions to make a comeback,â€� Rose said. “This is the type of day when you are playing with a lead, every hole seems difficult. Obviously, someone is still capable of playing a special round of golf. And my back nine was just amazing today.â€� And so Johnson, who was poised to hold three of the four WGC trophies at one time, instead gave up the biggest 54-hole lead in WGC history. The last time the best player in the world gave up a lead like that was the 1996 Masters where Greg Norman collapsed from six ahead to give nick Faldo a third green jacket. The eight-shot deficit was the equal third biggest comeback in PGA TOUR history behind only Paul Lawrie (10 shots 1999 Open Championship) and Stewart Cink (nine shots 2004 RBC Heritage). “It’s the kind of day you certainly don’t expect,â€� Rose said. “It’s the kind of day you hope for, dream for, but a lot of things need to go your way in order for a day like today to happen… especially going against a player like DJ.â€� The win is Rose’s eighth triumph on the PGA TOUR and second WGC title. Having tasted five runner-up finishes since his last TOUR win in 2015 at the Zurich Classic it was a sweet one. The 550 FedExCup points rocket him to third on the points list early in the season – last year’s HSBC Champions winner Hideki Matsuyama rode the win all the way to the top seed entering the Playoffs. Of course Rose broke up his win “droughtâ€� with an Olympic Gold medal in 2016 so he has won somewhere in the world in each calendar year since 2010. “Whenever you beat the top players in the world, that gives a tournament victory so much more meaning, and obviously with a leaderboard like we had today with Dustin, Brooks (Koepka), (Henrik) Stenson, I take a lot of pride in winning this tournament,â€� he said. “And winning in China, to travel, to take your game internationally I think is something that’s very important to do.â€� Winning is always important – but so it seems is playing for second.

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