Officialsportsbetting.com Golf Betting Win probabilities: Valspar Championship

Win probabilities: Valspar Championship

2022 Valspar Championship, Round 2 Top 10 win probabilities: 1. Matthew NeSmith (1, -14, 28.6%) 2. Justin Thomas (5, -10, 16.7%) 3. Adam Hadwin (2, -12, 15.9%) 4. Sam Burns (T3, -11, 13.6%) 5. Scott Stallings (T3, -11, 5.0%) 6. Xander Schauffele (T7, -8, 3.5%) 7. Louis Oosthuizen (T10, -7, 2.0%) 8. Webb Simpson (T7, -8, 1.9%) 9. Brian Harman (T7, -8, 1.4%) 10. Davis Riley (6, -9, 1.4%) Top Strokes-Gained Performers from Round 2: Putting: Callum Tarren +4.7 Around the Green: Bubba Watson +2.8 Approach the Green: Matthew NeSmith +4.8 Off-the-tee: Davis Riley +2.0 Total: Matthew NeSmith +9.5 NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Valspar Championship, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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Major Specials 2025
Type: To Win A Major 2025 - Status: OPEN
Scottie Scheffler+160
Bryson DeChambeau+350
Xander Schauffele+350
Ludvig Aberg+400
Collin Morikawa+450
Jon Rahm+450
Justin Thomas+550
Brooks Koepka+700
Viktor Hovland+700
Hideki Matsuyama+800
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PGA Championship 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+450
Scottie Scheffler+450
Bryson DeChambeau+1100
Justin Thomas+2000
Ludvig Aberg+2000
Xander Schauffele+2000
Collin Morikawa+2200
Jon Rahm+2200
Joaquin Niemann+3500
Brooks Koepka+4000
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US Open 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+500
Scottie Scheffler+500
Bryson DeChambeau+1200
Xander Schauffele+1200
Jon Rahm+1400
Ludvig Aberg+1400
Collin Morikawa+1600
Brooks Koepka+1800
Justin Thomas+2000
Viktor Hovland+2000
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The Open 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+500
Scottie Scheffler+550
Xander Schauffele+1100
Ludvig Aberg+1400
Collin Morikawa+1600
Jon Rahm+1600
Bryson DeChambeau+2000
Shane Lowry+2500
Tommy Fleetwood+2500
Tyrrell Hatton+2500
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Ryder Cup 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
USA-150
Europe+140
Tie+1200

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No. 13: Marc LeishmanNo. 13: Marc Leishman

THE OVERVIEW By Ben Everill, PGATOUR.COM For years, Marc Leishman flew under the radar, hardly noticed on the PGA TOUR. Despite being the 2009 PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year and winning the 2012 Travelers Championship, the affable Australian just kind of fell into the background of TOUR life. TOP 30 PLAYERS TO WATCH IN 2018: We’ll countdown our list with one new player each day in December. Click here for the published players. MORE: Top 30 explanation and schedule Partly because of his laidback demeanor and partly because he didn’t chase the limelight, his profile only took modest upward moves when he almost won the Masters in 2013 and the Open Championship in 2015. His amazing wife Audrey almost lost her life to sepsis in 2015. Even with that storyline, Leishman couldn’t find his way into the higher conscious of the golf public. But in 2017, Leishman finally started making more inroads. He showed that his skill can turn up more than just the odd week. A win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational was a long time coming and the way he surged late on Sunday would’ve made Mr. Palmer proud. But he didn’t let things lull there. Leishman missed just three cuts all season and was in the top-10 seven times and the top-25 16 times. One of those was a win at the BMW Championship, where he went wire-to-wire in ultra-impressive fashion after opening with a 62. Even more impressive was it came after losing the lead on Sunday to Justin Thomas the week before at the Dell Technologies Championship. He showed a mettle reserved for those with mental toughness. For most of this decade, the focus of Australian golf has centered on Jason Day and Adam Scott, but Leishman’s 2017 season was light years ahead of both his countrymen last season. He is now within striking distance of being the top-ranked Australian in the world, having already overtaken Scott and sniffing down Day’s neck. He started the new season with a playoff loss to Thomas, someone whose accolades he’s looking to emulate. He has the ability to have a year like Thomas did last year and if he does that, no one will ever be asking who Marc Leishman is anymore. Click here to follow Ben on Twitter BY THE NUMBERS How Marc Leishman ranked in Strokes Gained statistics during his last full season on the PGA TOUR. FEDEXCUP Current 2017-18 position: 13th Playoff appearances: 9 TOUR Championship appearances: 2 Best result: 6th (2017) INSIGHTS FROM THE INSIDERS PGATOUR.COM’s Insiders offer their expert views on what to expect from Marc Leishman in 2018. TOUR INSIDER by Cameron Morfit I like Leishman’s resilience. He had his best season in 2017 with two wins, including the BMW Championship in his first start after he’d blown a great chance to win the Dell Technologies Championship at TPC Boston two weeks earlier. (Leishman fell apart on the back nine of his final round in Boston to finish third.) He’s shown he has the game; now he’ll need to find more consistency if he is to improve on his sixth-place FedExCup finish, add to his three TOUR wins, and take the next step to elite status. Click here to follow Cameron on Twitter FANTASY INSIDER by Rob Bolton This is higher than where he belongs in draft leagues, but not by much. The talented Aussie is in his prime at 34 years of age and his results in 2017 prove it. Still a lock to start when the wind blows, he’s scaled leaderboards all over the place when it hasn’t thanks to a measured balancing of weapons throughout his bag. Because it took him a while to get there, the expectation is that the bubble won’t last long, but that same doubt enhances his value for the faithful because their pool isn’t overcrowded. Click here to follow Rob on Twitter EQUIPMENT INSIDER by Jonathan Wall Leishman added three Callaway GBB Epic metalwoods to the bag at the beginning of the year.  One of two PGA TOUR winners this season with a 7-wood in the bag. Only non-Callaway club is a 58-degree Titleist Vokey SM6 wedge.  Click here to follow Jonathan on Twitter STYLE INSIDER by Greg Monteforte The big Aussie has a closet full of classic looks with traditional fits. When Leishman tees it up in 2018, you can bet he will sport a variety of stripes and prints in his wardrobe. He would do well to improve his fashion game in the New Year by eliminating the white belts from his repertoire. Click here to follow Greg on Twitter

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Jason Day more than comfortable at AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmJason Day more than comfortable at AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

PEBBLE BEACH, Calif. – It feels like old times when Jason Day is strutting his stuff out here on the Monterey Peninsula and thrusting himself into contention. Unfortunately, he’s had to take his game to a lot of other zip codes and “to be honest, the last couple years have been a bit of a struggle,” said Day, who hasn’t won since 2018 and has seen his world ranking plummet. Which isn’t to say that he’s pushing to be nominated for any of those postseason awards. “I’m not looking at this as a comeback season. I’m just looking at it like every day, what can I do to try to get better?” So far, so good in 2022, because after playing nicely for four days at The American Express two weeks ago, Day had a chance to win last week’s Farmers Insurance Open before settling for a share of third on the strength of 70-65-67-72. It was a nice wave of confidence on which to ride into this week’s tournament where Day somehow, someway always feels good. “I just love Carmel by the Sea. I just love this area,” said Day, who is proving that once again. Backing up an opening 68 at Pebble Beach with Friday’s 5-under 66 at Monterey Peninsula, Day is at 9-under 134 at the halfway point and just seven off of a sizzling pace being set by Seamus Power (64-64) at 16-under. It’s not as close as Day has been in his recent run of success here in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am – the Aussie has been within six of the lead through 36 in each of the last seven starts here – but there’s little doubt that his name on the leaderboard gets people’s attention. No matter what his form has been of late – and the former world No. 1 started the season at 125 – Day is a fixture here. He’s finished top 10 in eight of his 12 previous starts, including each of the last five years and he’s broken par in 38 of his 48 rounds. “I think first and foremost it’s just having a really good attitude,” said Day. “There can be some pretty rough (weather) days, but then you have days like this (pulsating sun-splashed days with nary a cloud to be found) . . . it’s absolutely stunning.” Which is not exactly how Day would describe his game the last few years. The 34-year-old, 12-time winner clearly hasn’t played well, but it’s not like he’s going to sit there and cite all the health issues that have slowed him. “I think (this stretch of play) is real positive, not only personally, but with my back and when I get off the golf course I feel good.” He doesn’t even let it bother him that he’s outside the qualifying mark for the Masters, even after his T-3 at Farmers pushed him to 83rd. that’s still short of the Top 50 threshold. “I really just have to take care of the day-to-day stuff and then hopefully that turns into really good results and the confidence spurs more good results,” said Day. “If I do end up taking (the Masters) off because my ranking is not good enough, so be it. I’m thinking about long-term, trying to get myself climbing that ladder again. That’s the main process.” He just focuses on what is going right, which is a lot of things. Yes, the string of rounds at Torrey Pines that continued at Pebble Thursday and Monterey Peninsula Friday are steps in the right direction, a very positive progress report, if you will. But best of all, “I’m super, super obsessed with the golf swing right now, which is either a good thing or a bad thing. “I don’t know how to take that. But I’m always talking to my coach every day and I’m always constantly working on it.” As he spoke, Day knew he was a good bit behind Power, the Irishman who is on a tear. Turns out, it was a seven-shot deficit and there are others in between Day and the leader, but he’s quite comfortable on this three-course stage (Saturday, he’ll play Spyglass) and takes comfort from the string of top 10s where he’s done everything but win. “I think I’m very due. I’ve played some really solid golf over my lifetime here,” laughed Day. “I’m just not going to try to think about it too much. Hopefully, it falls in my lap.”

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Top 30 Players to Watch in 2019: No. 15 Francesco MolinariTop 30 Players to Watch in 2019: No. 15 Francesco Molinari

OVERVIEW In a game increasingly dominated by youth, 36-year-old Francesco Molinari had a career-changing year in 2018. He did it by improving his play with both the longest and shortest clubs in the bag. He took a page out of the youngsters’ playbook by making distance a priority and addressed his longtime struggles with the putter. After going winless in his first 120 PGA TOUR starts, he won twice in a three-tournament stretch this summer. He picked up his first PGA TOUR win at the Quicken Loans National, shooting a final-round 62 to win by eight. Then he stared down Tiger Woods to win The Open Championship at Carnoustie. Molinari sandwiched a runner-up at the John Deere Classic between those victories. He was 48 under in those 12 rounds, including six rounds of 65 or lower. He also qualified for his first TOUR Championship with a career-best FedExCup finish (17th). And, after going winless in his first two Ryder Cups, he led Europe to victory at Le Golf National, becoming the first player to win a major and go 5-0 in the Ryder Cup in the same season. “This year, it’s been incredible,â€� he said. That may be an understatement. — By Sean Martin Click here to see who else made the Top 30 list. BY THE NUMBERS FEDEXCUP UPDATE Current 2018-19 position: 173rd Playoff appearances: 4 TOUR Championship appearances: 2 Best FedExCup result: 17th in the 2017-18 season SHOTLINK FUN FACT Francesco Molinari is one of five first-time winners since the 2013-14 season to win multiple times in the same year as his breakthrough PGA TOUR win. INSIDER INSIGHTS PGATOUR.COM’s Insiders offer their expert views on what to expect from Francesco Molinari in 2019. TOUR INSIDER: Molinari’s work with putting instructor Phil Kenyon undoubtedly paid dividends in 2018. But so did a 20-yard distance gain over the past three seasons, including a 10-yard gain since 2017. And he was able to do it with only a small loss in accuracy. Compared to 2015, Molinari is gaining nearly two additional strokes per event with his tee shots. He gained distance with both changes to his swing and more trips to the gym. “I was more of a couch guy a couple years ago,â€� he joked. – By Sean Martin FANTASY INSIDER: It’d be unfair to predict the kind of success that he enjoyed worldwide in the last six months, but it’s still a reminder of what’s possible when we position expectations properly. For dual-tour threats like the 36-year-old Italian, the customary advice is to invest lightly and surround with busier talent based in the U.S. It provides both insurance for the worst of times and an injection for the best of times. No doubt, his encore will include a few blue notes, but he already was a standard on every set list because of his world-class ball-striking. It’s a skill that rarely strikes the wrong chord. — By Rob Bolton EQUIPMENT INSIDER: Molinari was part of the Nike staff left without an equipment deal when the company left the hard goods industry, and he’s since switched into mostly TaylorMade clubs. He’s currently using a TaylorMade M4 driver, an M3 fairway wood, P-790 driving irons (2 and 4), P-750 irons (5-PW), and Milled Grind wedges. He fills out his bag with a custom Bettinardi Dass BB-0 putter, stamped with a skull in the cavity that has green and red eyes to represent his pride of the Italian flag, and green and red stampings on the back bumpers. — By Andrew Tursky STYLE INSIDER: While many Nike athletes favor the brand’s sporty looks, Molinari gravitates towards the classic designs in Nike’s collection. Expect the reigning Open champ to stick with a neutral palette of colors with the occasional splash of intense pastels in 2019. — By Greg Monteforte

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