Win probabilities: Valspar Championship

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GREENSBORO, N.C. – Justin Rose is a big tennis fan. He particularly likes Roger Federer and what he calls the “grace and elegance” in the way the genial Swede conducts himself and plays the game. Rose feels like he can learn from Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, too, though. The big three of tennis, who have each won a record 20 Grand Slam titles, swing freely and are always focused on their game plan, regardless of what circumstances might arise. “When they’re 15-30 down, they swing for the lines,” Rose said. “They don’t start chipping it back into the middle of the court, they commit to their shots. “Sometimes I find it easier to learn from other sports than I do in my own arena, probably just stubbornness of looking at other players and wanting to learn from them, but definitely when I see tennis players, yeah, they commit 100 percent.” And that’s exactly what Rose has done this week at the Wyndham Championship. He came to Sedgefield Country Club ranked 138th in the FedExCup and in danger of missing the Playoffs for the first time since they were created in 2007. But after rounds on 66 and 65 on the Donald Ross gem, Rose has moved inside the top 125, projected at 117th. Not only is Rose potentially playing his way to Liberty National next week, he’s got a chance to win for the first time since the 2019 Farmers Insurance Open, and 11th overall. He’s tied for fifth with Tyler Duncan and Brian Stuard at 9 under, five strokes off the pace being set by Russell Henley. “So far, so good for sure,” Rose said. “Objective number one is to make it to the Playoffs, but two, if you’re playing well this week, I know I need to finish top-10, but at the same time there’s no point limiting yourself to that kind of thinking at this point. “Winning would go a long way to kind of feel like you can compete in the Playoffs. Listen, that’s all way ahead of me, but tomorrow just kind of keep doing what I’m doing. I think this golf course suits good strategy and good patience, so those are some of the things I’m going to try to continue with over the weekend.” For Rose, who birdied the 72nd hole at the TOUR Championship in 2018 to win the $10 million FedExCup bonus, it’s already been a big week. He found out on Monday that he’d won the Payne Stewart Award, given annually since 2000 to a golfer who exemplifies the late pro’s character, sportsmanship and commitment to charity. He’s happy with the progress he’s seeing on the golf course, too. Rose has kept his mind clear and hit quality shots at the right time. In short, he’s doing what Federer and Djokovic and Federer would do. “Whatever the scenarios are this week, I need to be able to swing freely and commit through coming up the 18th hole with a chance to finish top-10 or a chance to win or whatever it might be,” Rose said. “It’s a great opportunity this week just to continue to kind of practice that kind of hopefully steppingstone back towards playing great.” NOTES: Matthew Wolff may have missed the cut at the Wyndham Championship, but he walked away with $1 million after winning the Aon Risk Reward Challenge. The competition is based on a player’s two best scores each week on a designated hole. He finished with a flourish, too, making birdie on the 15th at Sedgefield on Friday. “Obviously there’s a lot of money to be made out on TOUR, but I’m new out here and every little bit helps,” said the 22-year-old . “And Aon puts on a great contest, year-long contest. Just happy that I got it done. And I knew about it kind of the last couple months, so on the Aon know holes I was a little more nervous than I usually am, but played them pretty well and just came out on top.” … There will be no changes in the final Comcast Business TOUR Top 10 standings after Jason Kokrak, who came to Greensboro ranked No. 12, and Hideki Matsuyama, who was 14th, failed to make the cut. They were the only two who could have moved into the top 10, which is based on FedExCup points, this week. So Collin Morikawa, who won the Open Championship, will get the $2 million bonus. A total of $10 million is donated to the top 10 players with No. 10 earning $500,000. … Three of the six players tied for second after the first round – Scott Piercy, Michael Thompson and Ted Potter Jr. – came to the Wyndham Championship ranked outside the top 125 but were projected inside after the first round. But the hopes of making the Playoffs for Thompson and Potter ended on Friday after they missed the cut. Potter shot 64-77 and Thompson shot 64-74. … Tyler Duncan, who is tied for fifth after shooting 62 on Friday, is currently projected to move into the top 150 at No. 147. He is already exempt for the 2021-22 season by virtue of his win last year at the RSM Classic. … Two players are currently projected to move into the top 200, which would give the access to the Korn Ferry Tour Finals. Kiradech Aphibarnrat moved from No. 204 to 192nd after shooting 68 while David Lingmerth is projected to move from No. 205 to 197th after Friday’s 67. PLAYOFFS BUBBLE WATCH Here are the players who were projected to move in and out of the top 125 at the end of Friday’s second round at Sedgefield Country Club. PROJECTED IN Scott Piercy (126 to projected 80) – Piercy maintained a share of second after shooting 66 on Friday. He is tied with former Wyndham Championship winner Webb Simpson and Olympic silver medalist Rory Sabbatini. Rory Sabbatini (141 to projected 95) – Sabbatini did not make a bogey in his second round of 64. He has made 11 birdies and dropped just one shot to par over the first two rounds. Justin Rose (138 to projected 117) – Rose made his second eagle of the week in shooting 65 on Friday. PROJECTED OUT Ryan Armour (122 to projected 126) – Armour shot 68 on Friday but he missed the cut by one. He still has a chance to make the field for Liberty National but what happens is now out of his control. Patrick Rodgers (123 to projected 127) – Rogers rallied with a 67 but also missed the cut by one. He’s in the same boat as Armour. Bo Hoag (125 to projected 128) – Hoag followed up his 67 with a one-over 71 to miss the cut by a stroke, as well. The bubble boy will have to wait until Sunday night to find out his fate.

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Last week was all about the chalk. This week, it’s about the eraser. THE PLAYERS Championship arguably is the most equitable of all tournaments. Survival trumps solution. Repeated success cannot be ruled out as coincidence. No matter your flavor to attempt to describe the PGA TOUR’s home game, there’s never a fluke performance at TPC Sawgrass. This reality should generate pause when solidifying your six in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO. If you invest only in household names, it’s a recipe for regret. Furthermore, with nine more tournaments in Segment 3 to follow, including the U.S. Open (the only at which ShotLink will not be utilized), you’re going to want those household names lining up where course history matters. The fortunate beauty of THE PLAYERS is that there’s no shortage of value inside the ropes. As one of the deepest fields anywhere, you could craft five or six lineups and contend. Focus on getting four to the weekend and accept everything else as a bonus. PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO My roster for THE PLAYERS Championship (in alphabetical order): Jason Day Zach Johnson Francesco Molinari Webb Simpson Kyle Stanley Henrik Stenson You’ll find my starters in Expert Picks. Others to consider for each category (in alphabetical order): Scoring: Bryson DeChambeau; Dustin Johnson; Marc Leishman; Rory McIlroy; Phil Mickelson; Jon Rahm; Justin Rose; Justin Thomas Driving: Kevin Chappell; Bryson DeChambeau; Tommy Fleetwood; Rickie Fowler; Sergio Garcia; Emiliano Grillo; Alex Noren Approach: Emiliano Grillo; Chesson Hadley; Matt Kuchar; Rory McIlroy; Ian Poulter; Justin Rose; Jordan Spieth Short: Branden Grace; Chesson Hadley; Brian Harman; Kevin Kisner; Rory McIlroy; Phil Mickelson; Alex Noren; Jon Rahm; Justin Rose Notable WDs Graham DeLaet … Remains on the mend from stem-cell treatment on his back in January. Hasn’t competed since October, but has intimated that he might be ready to return soon. He won’t push it, of course, and he’d qualify for a Major Medical Extension for next season if he needs it. Every week he sits out, he rises a notch in value for full-season salary gamers in 2018-19. Luke Donald … It would be dramatic to state that he’s still stinging from his missed cut at the RBC Heritage, but that surprising result is his most recent. Prior to that tournament, the Englishman cited physical discomfort for his decision not to play the Houston Open, but he didn’t get specific. Currently 195th in the FedExCup standings. Camilo Villegas … Withdrew after his last three commitments due to ongoing pain in his right shoulder. The 36-year-old Colombian is 173rd in the FedExCup standings. Jim Herman … Continues to recover from surgery on both feet on March 6. Hasn’t competed since the Genesis Open, so he’d need to sit out until late June to qualify for a Major Medical Extension for 2018-19. At 222nd in the FedExCup standings, there’s little urgency to rush back. Morgan Hoffmann … Hasn’t competed since finishing T49 at The Honda Classic. Since, he’s launched the MH Foundation, which was inspired by his fight with Muscular Dystrophy. Brandon Hagy … Tendonitis in his left wrist has sidelined him for five months now. He’s been sharing progress of his recovery on Twitter recently, so perhaps a return is imminent. Seung-Yul Noh … Currently fulfilling his military conscription in his native South Korea. Won’t regain fantasy relevance until the 2019-2020 season. Power Rankings Recap – Wells Fargo Championship Power Ranking Player Result 1 Rory McIlroy T16 2 Justin Thomas T21 3 Rickie Fowler T21 4 Phil Mickelson T5 5 Webb Simpson T21 6 Patrick Reed 8th 7 Jason Day Win 8 Louis Oosthuizen MC 9 Tony Finau T21 10 Ryan Moore MC 11 Kevin Kisner MC 12 Paul Casey T5 13 Tommy Fleetwood MC 14 Chesson Hadley T16 15 Kevin Streelman MC Wild Card Hideki Matsuyama T76/MDF Sleepers Recap – Wells Fargo Championship Player Result Byeong Hun An T63 Scott Brown MC Charles Howell III T21 Grayson Murray T59 Kyle Stanley T13 Birthdays among active golfers on the PGA TOUR May 8 … Andres Romero (37); Chris Kirk (33) May 9 … none May 10 … Parker McLachlin (39) May 11 … Briny Baird (46) May 12 … Jim Furyk (48); Mike Weir (48) May 13 … none May 14 … none

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