Win probabilities: TOUR Championship

HAMILTON, Ontario – A dream came true for Graeme McDowell on Sunday at the RBC Canadian Open, as he earned a spot in the 2019 Open Championship in his hometown at Royal Portrush. Related: Leaderboard | McIlroy shoots final-round 61 “I think I had reasonable belief in myself that I was going to be able to take care of it one of these weeks. Obviously as the pressure started to build, it was going to be more difficult as it went along,â€� he admitted. “Obviously very proud to have got one of the Open Championship spots and get that little monkey off my back and let me go and play some golf the next few weeks.â€� McDowell said earlier in the week he had accepted his fate as it pertained to The Open. If he played well, he said, he’d be in. If he didn’t, he’d be OK. He didn’t have to worry. After a 2-under 68 Sunday at the RBC Canadian Open, part of The Open Qualifying Series, he’s in – along with Canadian Adam Hadwin, who also earned a qualifying spot after finishing sixth. McDowell, who said he’s played Royal Portrush between 300-500 times, didn’t make qualifying easy on himself. He flared his approach on the par-4 18th – playing as the most difficult hole of the day – and ended up in the long rough near a bunker. He chipped it on, but had just over 29 feet for par. It was a curling, difficult putt – a “1-in-10,â€� McDowell said – but he drained it, and dropped to his knees in celebration. “The putt was not makeable, no. The putt had 12 feet of break on it,â€� said McDowell. “It was a ridiculously tough putt to make. Just fancied it, I saw it, liked the way it looked, and when I saw it go in it was a huge relief.â€� McDowell won his first PGA TOUR title in four years at the Puntacana Resort & Club Championship, but the victory didn’t guarantee a spot in The Open. He was near the top of the leaderboard after the first round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, another tournament in The Open Qualifying Series, but faded. He opened with a 5-under 65 this week at Hamilton Golf and Country Club – a course, he said, that fit his game – and backed that up with rounds of 67-70-68 to finish T-8, his fourth top-10 of the year. He knew he was trying to contend Sunday, but he couldn’t shake the thought of getting into The Open. “You’re out there playing for a lot of FedExCup Cup points,â€� he said, “and all I can focus on is trying to get exempt for The Open Championship. I might go to Portrush and miss the cut and think, ‘what was all that about?’â€� McDowell, who admitted he’s just excited to have the freedom to play well over the next few weeks, including at the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach – where he won in 2010 – to get ready for a big week in his hometown. Although that is still weeks away, he was already feeling the hometown love this week in Canada. “There are lots of Northern Irish people here. It’s a unique part of the world. Lots of Irish support, and people are always really nice to me up here,â€� he said. “Certainly enjoyed my week.â€� And now, he has another special week to look forward to in July.

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Early within the lineup of tentpole stops from March through July is a subset of something for everyone. It starts pre-Florida Swing with a World Golf Championship/additional event doubleheader, continues with another a month later – except the WGC is a Match Play – and lingers all the way to last week’s team event in New Orleans. It’s a harrowing stretch of competition, er, opportunity. The Valspar Championship represents the other side of it, but it’s not for the weary. Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club’s Copperhead Course perennially ranks among the most challenging courses every season. Scroll past the projected contenders for more on the brief history of the tournament, what’s new this year – other than its position on the schedule – and mre. RELATED: The First Look | How the field qualified POWER RANKINGS: VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP Sungjae Im, Joaquin Niemann, Abraham Ancer and Henrik Stenson will be among the notables reviewed in Tuesday’s Fantasy Insider. As a nascent event from 2000-2006, the Valspar Championship was contested later in the calendar year. It then transitioned into a fixture of the Florida Swing when the FedExCup was introduced in 2007. Like many other tournaments, it was canceled in 2020 due to the pandemic and repositioned this season by more than a month later than when it was accustomed. Thanks to extended daylight hours at this time of year, the 2021 edition will host 156 golfers for just the third time in its history (2002, 2013). It’s the first of a dozen tournaments extending through the Wyndham Championship in which reservations are made for the maximum. The only individual event staged on one course with as many golfers earlier in the season was the Safeway Open in early September of 2020. As it concerns the test itself, Copperhead is unchanged. It’s a par 36-35—71 that tips at 7,340 yards. It has the full complement of four par 5s, and they’re challenging, but it has five par 3s, which are just as daunting. However, what’s primarily different this year is that there’s no overseed on the Celebration bermudagrass fairways. Overseed still exists elsewhere, including on the TifEagle bermuda greens. Where it’s transitional won’t be an issue. Because the greens average just over 5,800 square feet, golfers who are stronger tee to green than they are wielding the flat stick have the inside lane. Two-time defending champion Paul Casey proved this in 2019. He led the field in total driving and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, but he finished a pedestrian 43rd in Strokes Gained: Putting. Sharpen the focus and you’ll find a winner who performed like any in a shootout, which this tournament most definitely is not. Casey ranked T5 in greens hit and second in converting those chances into par breakers. He also paced the field in par-5 scoring. All of that compensated for finishing T55 in par-4 scoring en route to his one-stroke title at 8-under 276. Leave it to the grizzled Englishman with the million-dollar smile to make it look easy. Copperhead averaged 71.981 in 2019, highest among all par 71s in non-majors that season. It was the third time in four season that it claimed that distinction. Moderate winds will contribute to the high scores again this week. They’ll start from a southerly direction early in the tournament before pushing in from the north on the weekend. A threat of inclement weather mid-tournament could cool the air, but daytime highs will reach the low- to mid-80s. The primary rough exceeds three inches and the putting surfaces can race to 12-and-a-half feet on the Stimpmeter. If you’re new to the tournament, you’ll be learning how unrelenting The Snake Pit can be. It consists of the closing par 4-3-4. In 2019, Nos. 16, 17 and 18 ranked a respective first, eighth and third in terms of difficulty on the course. Collectively, they averaged 0.611 strokes over par for the week. Casey scored 1-over on the trio during both victories. His only birdie on the stretch in 2019 occurred on the par-4 16th in the opening round. ROB BOLTON’S SCHEDULE PGATOUR.COM’s Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton recaps and previews every tournament from numerous angles. Look for his following contributions as scheduled. MONDAY: Power Rankings TUESDAY*: Sleepers; Fantasy Insider SUNDAY: Qualifiers, Reshuffle, Medical Extensions, Rookie Watch * – Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, which also publishes on Tuesday.

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FARMINGDALE, N.Y. – Lucas Glover smiled wryly when he was told he and Tiger Woods are the only two players in the PGA Championship field this week who have won majors at Bethpage Black. “That’s probably about it,â€� he joked when asked what else they might have in common. “That and we’ll have 14 clubs in the bag this week, I guess. “That’s pretty cool to have that (in common). That might be the only thing that anybody will ever use he and I’s name in the same breath. And any time you’re lumped in with him. It’s a pretty big honor.â€� But the now 39-year-old three-time PGA TOUR winner hopes he might have something else in common with Woods … the ability to recapture some old glory. Woods has famously returned from injury in the last year, winning the TOUR Championship and the Masters to pull within one of Sam Snead’s record 82 PGA TOUR wins. At East Lake it was Woods’ first TOUR win in five years and at Augusta it was his first major win in nearly 11 years. Glover, who won the 2009 U.S. Open, has faced similar lengthy win droughts. He has also battled some minor injuries, including most recently his knee. The last of his three TOUR titles came at the 2011 Wells Fargo Championship. But this season … well you could say he’s trending. Glover sits 31st in the FedExCup this season thanks to the fact he has four top-10s and 11 top-20s from 15 starts. Last season he managed just one top-10, back in October of 2017, so it is a welcome return to form. Related: Featured groups, tee times | Rethinking Tiger Woods | Spieth ‘flying under the radar’ in latest career Grand Slam bid | Nine things to know about Bethpage Black | The First Look Especially considering his FedExCup positioning since his last winning season reads 219th, 114th, 185th, 147th, 106th, 43rd and 135th. “I don’t think there’s been anybody to play this game that hasn’t been fried at one point or another,â€� Glover said. “It was pretty up and down and some lean times, but again, I don’t know of anybody that’s played this game for a long time that hasn’t gone through some ups and downs.â€� “Like (former NFL player) Brian Dawkins said in his Hall of Fame speech, you’re going through something so you’re going to come out on the other end, so that’s the way I’m looking at the last few years is I’ve come out the other side. “I haven’t won, I haven’t accomplished any of my goals, but I’ve come through it.â€� Glover’s victory in 2009 came in extremely wet conditions. The rain is again falling at Bethpage in the early part of this week. Back then he held off the likes of Woods, and Phil Mickelson as they charged towards him. He might have to do so again should he find himself in contention. “Any experience you have, good or bad, you can make it a positive, and that’s what I’m trying to do … I’m in every way a different person than 10 years ago, but I can still lean on all of that,â€� he adds. “My golf swing is different, my putting stroke is different, my brain is different, everything is different. But at the same time, I still get comfortable when I walk into the clubhouse or drive through the gate. “It’s just that calming feeling. It’s almost like how I imagine some guys feel driving down Magnolia Lane at Augusta that have had success there. It’s just like an automatic deep breath, like I’ve done it here, let’s see what we can do again.â€�

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