Win probabilities: TOUR Championship

The PGA TOUR said goodbye to the West Coast last week as Bubba Watson claimed his third title at Riviera. The TOUR shifts this week to Florida and Palm Beach Gardens for The Honda Classic. The Champion Course at PGA National will present 12 water hazards, over 75 bunkers, palm trees and TifEagle Bermuda grass greens for the pros to navigate. We say goodbye to Poa annua, kikuyu, Cypress and Eucalyptus trees and benign California weather as the TOUR descends on south Florida. Full kudos to the American Honda Motor Corporation for continuing the longest sponsorship of a PGA TOUR event as their commitment dates all the way back to 1982, a span of 37 years. The Champion Course at PGA National has been the exclusive host to The Honda Classic since 2007, so any data before then won’t be of much use this week. As pointed out above, it is important for gamers to know that conditions facing the pros this week will be quite different than the conditions over the few weeks in California and Arizona. For the first time this season we’ll see water in play on the majority of holes and plenty of sand to catch errant ball-striking. Although just playing 7,140 yards to a par 70, the Champion Course has been annually one of the toughest on TOUR due to the water hazards, closely-mown areas around the greens, the “Bear Trap”, holes Nos. 15-17, and the uneven weather. This time of year in Florida, the weather can swing violently but the one constant is the wind. Its ever-presence is noted, as there have been no multiple victories and obviously no repeat champions. The winners have posted double-figures under-par just three times in 11 tries with Camilo Villegas going lowest at 13-under-par 267 to set the tournament scoring record. Brian Harman didn’t take very long to acclimate here when he set the course record, 61, in just his second competitive round in 2012 (T12). Rickie Fowler set the 54-hole record last year en route to the biggest winning margin since Villegas in 2010. His 12-under-par 268 included 21 birdies, as he became only the third winner to hit double-digits under-par. The numbers above show how he did it, but the key for Fowler was his putter. He holed all 57 tries inside seven feet for the week, which helped tremendously. He also sank a pair of monsters on the back nine on Sunday for birdies when the train was getting off the tracks. Over the last three editions of this tournament, there have been exactly 16, bogey-free rounds. Fowler owns three of them including one last year and two from 2016. Avoiding bogeys is not one-dimensional golf; it takes a complete bag and Fowler has one of the deepest in the game. The weather was excellent last year with temperatures in the low 80’s for most of the week. With Adam Scott and Sergio Garcia tied after 54 holes and holding a four-shot advantage on third place, Sunday 2016 felt like match play. The Aussie became one of the few in the history of the PGA TOUR to make a quadruple bogey (Round 3) and go on to win. He dominated the ball-striking numbers and was excellent in avoiding bogeys, minus the quadruple! Fowler was in the mix again as he was bogey-free through 36 holes and led by one at the halfway point. His 74-71 weekend saw him finish T6 and he finished T3 in bogey avoidance for the week. Justin Thomas stuck all four rounds in the 60’s to collect T3. The cool-ish weather saw only the top 10 break par for the week. Sponsor’s exemption Padraig Harrington picked up the big check in 2015 in a playoff over then-rookie Daniel Berger as both ended up 274 (-6). Berger fired 64, joint lowest round of the week, in the final round to force the two extra holes. The Monday finish was a byproduct of the instable weather mentioned earlier. Harrington became the oldest winner at 43 even though he tried to give the tournament away twice in the final round with a pair of double bogeys. There’s a reason why getting to double-figures is a big deal here! It’s simply not an easy track. Just ask 54-hole leader Ian Poulter (-9) His final round 74 saw him drop to T3. NOTE: Golfers inside the top 25 in each statistic on the 2016-17 PGA TOUR are listed only if they are scheduled to compete in The Honda Classic. * – Finished inside the top 10 at The Honda Classic since 2013. Strokes-Gained: Tee-to-Green Rank  Golfer  6  *Justin Thomas  8  *Rory McIlroy 12 *Sergio Garcia 13 *Luke List 16 *Rickie Fowler 17 *Gary Woodland 18 Byeong-Hun An 19 *Adam Scott 20 *Lucas Glover 21 *Ryan Palmer 22 *Ian Poulter 24 Webb Simpson 25 Bud Cauley Bogey Avoidance Rank  Golfer  2  Chad Campbell  7  *Ian Poulter  9  Charles Howell III 10 *Lucas Glover 11 *Rickie Fowler 13 Webb Simpson 17 *Sergio Garcia 20 Martin Flores 21 *Justin Thomas 23 Seamus Power 24 John Huh 25 Ryan Armour Par-4 Scoring Rank  Golfer  2  *Justin Thomas  6  Stewart Cink  6  *Rickie Fowler  6  *Lucas Glover  6  Webb Simpson 15 *Daniel Berger 15 *Keegan Bradley 15 *Sergio Garcia 15 Robert Garrigus 15 Jamie Lovemark 15 *Ian Poulter 15 Brandt Snedeker Scrambling Rank  Golfer  1  *Ian Poulter    4  Webb Simpson  5  Chad Campbell  8  *Rickie Fowler 10 John Huh    12 Seamus Power 15 Brian Harman 16 Brandt Snedeker 18 Louis Oosthuizen 25 Charles Howell III Taming the Champion Course, as shown above, will take more than being a one-trick pony. There were plenty of categories to choose from to highlight this week, but I stuck with the ones that didn’t have a true outlier. With the wind blowing annually, it’s not a surprise that the last three winners have been veteran, world-class players. They know how to handle adverse conditions and have the tools in the bag to navigate the most difficult of courses. PGA National will also require patience and thought as playing shots with, across and into the wind also tests the space between the ears. The course will also force decisions on when to pull driver and when to leave it in the bag. The test is similar to Riviera, firm and fair, but with different, more penal hazards (wind, water). I’ll point out that Michael Thompson is the only winner out of 11 not to have multiple TOUR victories. Winning experience counts this week. The Champion Course is going to reward those who miss it in the right place and can avoid the big, crooked numbers. The TifEagle Bermuda grass will be a welcome sight to more than a few this week, as they return to their native grass. Breezy conditions shouldn’t bother the plethora of players who call this part of the world home or make their winters in Sea Island or Orlando; wind is a part of golf in paradise. Champion Course ratings since 2015: 2015: Second-toughest, non-major playing 1.832 strokes over-par; fourth-hardest course on TOUR. 2016: Second-toughest, non-major playing 1.768 strokes over-par; fifth-hardest course on TOUR. 2017: 16th-most difficult of the 50 courses used on TOUR playing .556 strokes over-par. I’ll let you guess which one of the three had the best weather! The Champion Course has two three-hole stretches that rate annually in the five toughest on TOUR. Hole Nos. 15 through 17, “The Bear Trap” gets all of the publicity as it was the major part of Jack Nicklaus’ redesign. Don’t sleep on the stretch from hole Nos. 5 through 7 either as they rank just behind “The Bear Trap” in difficulty. Throw in some of the toughest par-4 holes, water left and water right plus difficult scrambling conditions around the greens and gamers and pros alike will be hanging on for dear life Sunday afternoon. The international contingent has won seven of the 11 trophies since the move to the Champion Course, which reinforces the ball-striking and scrambling angles even more this week. Rob Bolton’s Power Rankings will give you more juice for the week, so make sure you stop by. It’s also who I trust with the weather each week so pay attention! Be sure to look for my post-round recap EMERGENCY 9 each night shortly after the conclusion of play! NOTE: The groups below are comprehensive to assist in data mining. Inclusion doesn’t imply automatic endorsement in every fantasy game as all decisions are specific to your situation. CONFIDENCE MEN Selected golfers with multiple cuts made sorted by rank on the tournament’s money list. BUILDING CONFIDENCE Sorted by best finish, selected golfers who are either finally finding form on the course or are still relatively new to the tournament but have enjoyed some success. OTHER SIGNS OF CONFIDENCE Sorted by most recent top 10s, selected golfers for whom it’s been a few years since their last.

Click here to read the full article…

THE OVERVIEW By Ben Everill, PGATOUR.COM He’s built like a human hat rack; he plays like a human highlight film. The 6-foot-4, 160-pound Hadley won twice on the Web.com Tour last season, then opened eyes in his return to the PGA TOUR with three top-five finishes in his first three starts in the fall. He left the fall events at No. 8 in FedExCup points while moving up 42 spots in the world rankings, looking a lot like the superstar who burst onto the TOUR with a victory at the 2014 Puerto Rico Open. “That’s my thing, for me only,â€� Hadley said when asked how he reignited his career at the Sanderson Farms Championship, where he finished second to Ryan Armour. “I’m not looking to help anybody else, if that doesn’t come across cross as selfish or arrogant. I’ve just kind of found something that works for me. Hopefully I can remember it and keep doing it.â€� TOP 30 PLAYERS TO WATCH IN 2018: We’ll countdown our list with one new player each day in December. Click here for the published players. MORE: Top 30 explanation and schedule Low-key off the course, where he unwinds with wood-working and crossword puzzles, Hadley makes must-see moments on it. He won with style at last season’s LECOM Health Challenge and Albertsons Boise Open presented by Kraft Nabisco, the latter by shooting a final-round 65 to complete the biggest comeback win in the event’s 28-year history. And he went down swinging at three other tournaments, two of which he lost in wild sudden-death playoffs. A proven closer, Hadley, 30, now looks readier than ever to compete, and win, at the game’s highest level. Click here to follow Ben on Twitter FEDEXCUP 2017-18 position: 8 Playoff appearances: 2 TOUR Championship appearances: 0 Best result: 49th (2014) BY THE NUMBERS INSIGHTS FROM OUR INSIDERS TOUR INSIDER by Ben Everill He’s on this list for a reason — most of us around the PGA TOUR expect Hadley to enter the winner’s circle this season. Clearly a cut above last year on the Web.com Tour, Hadley’s confidence has returned after it went missing for a few seasons. After winning the Puerto Rico Open in 2014, the sky appeared the limit; instead he lost his card two years later. The learning curve appears to have worked — he’s already got three top three finishes this fall. He’s here to stay this time. Click here to follow Ben on Twitter  FANTAY INSIDER by Rob Bolton This is already a different time and space from when he paced the Web.com Tour in combined earnings in 2013. Now 30 years of age and a father of two, he’s made no secret of how fortunate he knows he is to climb back to the big leagues. With a lights-out fall already paving his way to the Playoffs, the next challenge will be how to sustain and parlay his 2017 Web.Com Tour Player of the Year award into the next big thing. With renewed perspective and experience that includes both success and humility, gamers are advised to invest in him time and again. Click here to follow Rob on Twitter EQUIPMENT INSIDER by Jonathan Wall Plays a fairly stock setup with 13 Titleist clubs. 917D3 driver has 10.5 degrees of loft. Carries a 718 T-MB 3-iron instead of a traditional long iron. Has four-degree loft gaps between his gap wedge (52), sand wedge (56) and lob wedge (60). Only non-Titleist club in the bag is an Odyssey White Hot 2-Ball putter.  Click here to follow Jonathan on Twitter STYLE INSIDER by Greg Monteforte Colorful preppy looks have been Chesson’s go-tos since arriving on TOUR. His recent move to Peter Millar’s luxurious threads will provide him with a style upgrade for 2018. Opting for tailored shirts with a slimmer cut would be a good New Year’s resolution for Hadley.  Click here to follow Greg on Twitter

Click here to read the full article…

PALM HARBOR, Fla. – Suffice to say, there was only one player at the Valspar Championship this week whose driver sported a Junior Ryder Cup head cover.  That would belong to 17-year-old amateur Akshay Bhatia, a spindly left-hander from Wake Forest, N.C., who was making his first PGA TOUR start at Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course.  He found the Valspar to be a vastly different experience than the AGJA events that he had played here previously, wrestling nerves as he stood on the first tee on Thursday and fighting them for six or seven holes. But at 17, Bhatia is mature enough to know that there is a learning curve to negotiate, and any new knowledge gained only builds confidence inside him as he plots a path into a seemingly bright future.   “Walking to that tee,â€� he said, “I knew my heart was going to be pumping and I was super-excited to hit it. My coach just told me to hit it as hard as you can, because that’s the only thing I could do on that tee.â€� Starting on the 10th hole, Bhatia belted a drive 332 yards, just catching the primary rough left of the fairway, hit a 58-degree wedge from 106 yards to 4 feet and drained the putt. Very first hole he played on the PGA TOUR. Birdie. He followed with a double on the par-5 11th, fought his driver much of the day and still managed to shoot 3-over 74 despite making bogeys on three of his final four holes as darkness closed in.  Friday was better. He appeared sharper. Bhatia jumped out to a terrific start – 3 under through six – before a sloppy double-bogey at the par-4 ninth robbed him of all momentum. As was the case on Day 1, he bogeyed his final two holes, failing to get up and down, this time shooting 72 to finish outside the cut line at 4-over 146. “We lost a little momentum (at 9, where Bhatia bogeyed from 145 yards out) and we just didn’t get it back,â€� said his caddie, Eric Bajas, who has been working as a caddie for 34 years, or twice as long as Bhatia has been on this Earth. “But this was a good stepping stone for him.â€� Adds coach Allen Terrell, who has worked with Bhatia for three years and worked with a young Dustin Johnson, “I think he learned the value of one shot out here. Doing what he did yesterday (74 when he wasn’t driving it well) shows he’s not scared. He sticks with his plan and moves forward. He had a couple of ‘forced’ errors, and without those, he’s playing on the weekend on the PGA TOUR at 17. It’s all positive.â€� Bhatia, who won’t turn 18 until January and is the world’s top-ranked junior, will turn professional in the coming months, bypassing the college route. He took a couple of college visits, and said he had a slight interest in Oklahoma State and Stanford, but the college route is not the one he’ll take. Instead he’ll play top amateur events while he attempts to Monday qualify for more PGA TOUR events. He knows his next start against the varsity will be different.  “A hundred percent,â€� he said, flashing a bright white smile. “The first day is always going to be so hard because I’m never going to … I’ve never been in a situation like this and when you come out here, especially as a teenager, it’s not easy to just overcome right away. So definitely the next time I feel like I’ll tee it up a little better – and I’ll hit more fairways.â€� Over two days, Bhatia hit only 13 of 26 fairways, trying to play from rough overseeded with rye that has been difficult to judge. He made two double-bogeys, but also made seven birdies on a difficult Copperhead layout. His decision to forego college actually was cemented several years ago, when Bhatia was in the eighth grade. He says candidly that he has a short attention span and doesn’t care much for being in a classroom, but he enjoys being outside and loves playing golf and competing. So his father offered him a solution: “Let’s not do college.â€�  Bhatia was last year’s AJGA Rolex Player of the Year and won the Jones Cup earlier this year, securing a spot into the PGA TOUR’s RSM Classic early next season. Bhatia hopes to compete for the U.S. in this summer’s Walker Cup at England’s Royal Liverpool – he’d be the youngest U.S. player in the cup’s rich history (Ollie Fisher played for Great Britain and Ireland when he was 16) – and then will join the pay-for-play ranks.  “I’m stepping up and I’m performing at the level I need to perform,â€� he said. “So I just, I feel like I have a really good plan and I’m ready to do it.” “I mean everything’s just learning, a learning process in this game. I’ve played so many events and I’ve just got mentally stronger playing against some really good fields, golf courses, and just learning how to get around courses is big for me, because I’m a type of player to that loves just hitting it as far as I can and trying to get as close as possible. But I’ve definitely learned how to dissect a golf course and play it as smart as I can.â€� Bhatia, who is 6 feet tall and weighs only 130 pounds, has considerable power for his size. On the downhill 10th on Friday, he smashed a driver 343 yards. (“I use the ground well,â€� he said.) He received a sponsor exemption into the Valspar from tournament director Tracy West, and to this point never had played on a stage so big. The atmosphere was terrific. When he missed a putt for par at 12 on Friday, fans in the nearby Hooters pavilion, singing to the Ryder Cup tune of “Ole, ole, ole,” chimed out, “Ak-Shay, Ak-Shay, Ak-Shay, Ak-Shay …” “That was sick,” he said. There was a few awestruck moments for him over the week, such as running into Jason Day in the locker room, visiting with Dustin Johnson and playing a practice round with Jon Rahm. But he knows this is where he wants to play.  “He’s good. He’s a great player. Great attitude,â€� Rahm said of Bhatia. “You can tell he was very excited to be here, it reminded me, too, when I was playing in Phoenix (as an amateur). He was all over the place. I mean he was just walking fast, hitting a lot of putts, a lot of chips, everything which just really quick. Which it was cool to see, because I mean, he is 17 years old.  “But man, he is talented for 17 years old. I did not hit it anywhere close to that at his age. As a junior in high school? Yeah, not even close.â€�

Click here to read the full article…