Win probabilities: TOUR Championship

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ATLANTA - What are the odds? The odds that Rory McIlroy's second shot would find that little lake, the one that so many golf balls fly easily over during the TOUR Championship. I'm glad you asked. RELATED: Full leaderboard | Leaders struggle, set up FedExCup sprint | JT thrives in pursuer role It turns out that just 1.2% of second shots on East Lake's 18th hole (formerly the ninth) are hit into the water. The hole has been played 1,947 times in the ShotLink era (since 2004). McIlroy's was just the 23rd second shot to find the water. McIlroy topped his second shot. It traveled less than 30 yards before nose-diving into the water. So, what happend? We'll let McIlroy take it from here. He was gracious enough to speak to the media after making that mistake on his final hole of the day. Here's what he had to say: "The lie was sort of iffy. My biggest concern was trying to carry the first bunker on the right there, and I knew I needed to hit it really hard and I swung hard at it, and I got it maybe like right in the middle of the ball. ... I felt like if I tried to sweep it, it would be better, and I just sort of came up on it a little bit. "Probably in hindsight trying to take on a little bit too much. So yeah, and then it would have been nice to get away with a par. It wasn’t to be." McIlroy made bogey on 18, as did playing partner Justin Thomas. There has been just one other bogey on that reachable par-5 this week. McIlroy shot 71 on Saturday after signing for Friday's low round, a 6-under 64. He will start the third round five shots behind leader Dustin Johnson. McIlroy is trying to become the first player to successfully defend the FedExCup and first player to win it three times.

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Here are nine tidbits from the first round of A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier gamers can use tomorrow, this weekend or down the road. The Old White TPC at The Greenbrier Resort in White Sulfur Springs, West Virginia hosts for the eighth time and measures 7,287 yards and plays to Par-70.   KNOW THY ENEMY These were the top-10 selected golfers in the PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf game presented by SERVPRO. The morning wave had the best greens and best weather. The afternoon wave had to deal with a 1 hour 55 minute weather delay. Play was halted at 3:51 p.m. and resumed at 5:46 p.m. after the conditions were deemed safe. Don’t be surprised if there is more weather that causes play to stop and start again Friday! The splits were barely noticeable so when in doubt with the weather tomorrow, split/blend accordingly. Round 1 scoring average was 69.340 (-0.660) and there are 87 golfers currently at one-under par or better. There were seven bogey-free rounds Thursday as play was completed even with the weather delay. No tee times have been adjusted for Friday. PEOPLE’S CHOICE There’s good news and bad news for Bubba Watson and his investors. He was cruising along at four-under-par before a sloppy double late in his round knocked him back to 68 (-2). Watson jammed his hand/wrist early in the round as he had to navigate a bunker shot near the lip. Luckily he shook it off in a couple of holes and it wasn’t bothering him according to his post-round interview. Whew. Don’t forget the winner of this tournament has NEVER LED after any round except Round 4 in the seven previous editions. No lead is safe and there have been no 54-hole conversions. Strange, but true. STREAK BUSTER If Webb Simpson is going to rack up his first win and fourth top-10 payday at The Greenbrier, he’s going to have to do it in historic fashion. Knowing that he will have another mouth to feed shortly, I doubt he’s worried about streaks by previous champions. He needed to birdie the last two to tie the course record 59. He made pars on the final two holes to sign for a bogey-free, career-best 61 and the outright lead.  WHERE’S WHEE? It’s never hard to find the guy who circled 10 birdies on the day! Whee Kim sits T2 after making six on his opening nine to go out in 30. His score could have been even better but he squared two bogeys during that opening run. He played the back in bogey-free 32 and sits one behind Simpson’s lead. His 62 is his career-best round on TOUR. NOTHING NEW FOR NIEMANN I get that Joaquin Niemann is 19, but this isn’t his first event at The Old White TPC. Last year as an amateur he showed up and opened 68-68 to easily play the weekend. Saturday got the best of him as he stumbled to 75, but it was Sunday’s 64 that should have caught your attention! His bogey-free 63 is his third bogey-free round in his last four on TOUR. Don’t be late to this party. HE’S KRAFTY Grabbing gamers attention in late February with a T8 and a solo third in late March, Kelly Kraft looked like he was heading to “regular” status in his column. His next 11 events saw him pack early seven times and T35 was his biggest payday. He must like it here as he was T5 with all four rounds in the 60’s last year in his first try. This year he extends to five in a row with seven birdies against one bogey for 64 in Round 1. HOWELL-ING AT THE MOON The human ATM doesn’t have a very stellar track record here compared to some of his other stomping grounds. Charles Howell’s T9 in his first visit in 2010 is his only top-10 finish, and he’s not cashed for anything better than T32 in his next six tries. Gamers still backed him heavily as his recent form is impossible to ignore. He didn’t win the tournament on Thursday but his 68 surely didn’t lose it.  DEFENSE It’s never easy to win tournament No. 1, and it’s probably just as difficult to arrive for the first time as the defending champion. Xander Schauffele will get it out of the way this week so he won’t have to worry about it at East Lake (if he qualifies) to wrap up the season. His opening round 66 didn’t beat his 64 from last year but he played his last 12 holes in five-under to keep it around the top 10. He’s now 18-under in five rounds. COURSE HORSE Robert Streb has finished second and lost in a playoff in his last two starts in West Virginia and was 26-under combined. He’s picked up right where he’s left off as his opening round 66 runs his streak of rounds in the 60’s to nine. His best finish on TOUR this season is T40 so something has to give this week! STUDY HALL Norman Xiong is making his pro debut this week. As of this evening he was leading the event in SG: off the tee, striped 12-of-14 fairways and checked in on 17-of-18 GIR. His round of 69 (-1) could have been much better but he needed 33 putts. You’ve been alerted.  Billy Hurley III was of the 36 and 54-hole leaders (2014) who couldn’t close the door. His 66 in Round 1 gets him out of the blocks nicely. The fellas with babies on the way all were red figures after Round 1. Austin Cook (-4), Wesley Bryan (-1) and Simpson have all announced recently that their families are expanding.  Smylie Kaufman signed for 79 and then WD with an elbow issue.  The highest round on a winner’s scorecard for the week is 70. Scott Stallings is the only victor of seven to accomplish this. Stallings fired 70 this year in Round 1 as well.

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