Win probabilities: The Open Championship

The Asian Swing is upon us. You know what that means. Roster deadlines will fall on Wednesday in the U.S. THE CJ CUP @ NINE BRIDGES is scheduled to tee off at – are you ready? – 7:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday. That’s 4:00 p.m. on the West Coast and 1:00 p.m. in Hawaii. Set an advance reminder for this adventure through time. RELATED: Power Rankings | Horses for Courses | Daily fantasy advice  The tournament is the first of three in a row contributing to PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf that will not have a cut. Barring a mid-tournament withdrawal or disqualification, all 78 entrants in each event is guaranteed four rounds. If you’re running low on starts for any golfer, the elimination of the fear factor presents the opportunity to invest elsewhere without pause. However, since bonus points are back this season, for most intents and purposes, because there will be little variance between golfers in every round, the decision to target leaderboard finish is greater. The absence of ShotLink in South Korea, Japan and China also contributes to the reasoning to line up the chalk. In fact, none of the remaining five tournaments in Segment 1 will have ShotLink activated. It’ll be used in earnest on the Seaside Course for The RSM Classic, but because the co-hosting Plantation Course isn’t lasered, all measured shots on Seaside will not apply to PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. As referenced in my preseason full-membership fantasy ranking, THE CJ CUP @ NINE BRIDGES and next week’s ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP reserve space for the top 60 in the 2018-19 FedExCup standings. Not all commit, of course, but it’s still interesting to learn how deep into the ranking the tournaments need to go to fill their fields. As of midday Tuesday, Luke List was the last man in the field at Nine Bridges. He finished 92nd in the FedExCup last season. Believe it or not, his position aligns with the first two editions of the tournament. In 2017, Camilo Villegas was the last man in despite finishing 96th in the 2016-17 FedExCup. Last year, Branden Grace rounded out the field after finishing 88th in the FedExCup in 2017-18. PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf My roster for THE CJ CUP @ NINE BRIDGES (in alphabetical order): Rafa Cabrera Bello Tommy Fleetwood Viktor Hovland Sungjae Im Brooks Koepka Justin Thomas You’ll find my starters in Expert Picks. Others to consider for each category (in alphabetical order): Scoring: Collin Morikawa; Kevin Na; Ryan Palmer; Andrew Putnam; Cameron Smith; Jordan Spieth; Matthew Wolff; Gary Woodland Driving: n/a Power Rankings Wild Card Jason Day … Well, he’s done almost nothing to get us excited for his third appearance at Nine Bridges. Because he’s finished a respective T11 and T5 in the tournament, only course-history buffs will ignore the fact that he’s connected for only one top 20 in the last six months. His best finish in his last five starts is but a T40 at TPC Southwind. If you’re keen on keeping expectations high, that has been the narrative as he’s scuffled. At best, consider him only fractionally in DFS because you can round out a roster with the confidence that all will contribute. Draws Jordan Spieth … This is his first appearance on the Asian Swing since the 2015 WGC-HSBC Champions. The promise of 72 holes is most valuable, but the fact that Nine Bridges has ample room to spray it off the tee (not to mention that the fairways are unlikely to run out given how much rain has fallen in recent weeks) and large, soft targets for approaches conjoin for a close second for the 26-year-old. He can work on what ailed him throughout last season during competition. From our vantage point, that his value arguably is at all-time low, this is exactly when you want to hop aboard. Ian Poulter … With a T15 and a T10 in the first two editions of THE CJ CUP @ NINE BRIDGES, respectively, no one would have griped if the Englishman appeared in the Power Rankings, but he’s been too up and down in recent months to warrant that level of confidence. It’s not like he’s slumped, either. If anything, he’s regressed to a familiar pattern of mixing leaderboard crashing with the occasional struggle. Do not hesitate to make room. Sergio Garcia … Once again, he’s flipped a switch from bad to great. Since concluding the PGA TOUR season with a missed cut at THE NORTHERN TRUST that effectively retained his membership privileges as his 15th start of the season, he’s gone T23-Win-T7 on the European Tour. Now that we’re in a new season and he’s debuting at Nine Bridges, he figures to make noise once again. Byeong Hun An Billy Horschel Charles Howell III Collin Morikawa Andrew Putnam Matthew Wolff Fades Joaquin Niemann … If you’re new to my fantasy contributions, it might seem silly not to endorse everyone in a no-cut event, but gamers are fickle. We’re a tough crowd. Despite our preparation, it’s not as much due to a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately as it is what-will-you-do-for-me-now. Since winning at The Greenbrier, he’s gone T54-MC. It’s understandable given the career-defining achievement, but it’s also the first time in six months that he’s failed to crack the top 40 in consecutive starts, and that was at the tail end of a long stretch without making noise. So, I remain in a wait-and-see mode. Chez Reavie … He’s gone T15-T7 at Nine Bridges and he’s turned around his form here before, but since winning the Travelers in June, his only top 25 was a solo eighth at the 30-man TOUR Championship. Scott Piercy … Curiously performing below expectations for a few months, so his T5 in his debut here last year supports a trap. It’s a deep field, so you don’t need to reach. Kiradech Aphibarnrat Nate Lashley Graeme McDowell Phil Mickelson Ryan Moore Returning to Competition Matt Jones … Off to a strange start. Since opening with a T10 at The Greenbrier, he’s just 1-for-3 with two withdrawals. The first (at the Sanderson Farms) was due to a sore back. An explanation wasn’t released for his early exit in Houston last week. If this is the way it’s going to be with the Aussie, even full-season investors need to keep him on a tight leash. Notable WDs None Power Rankings Recap – Houston Open Power Ranking  Golfer  Result 1  Henrik Stenson  MC 2  Russell Henley  T61 3  Daniel Berger  MC 4  Brian Harman  MC 5  Denny McCarthy  T9 6  Keegan Bradley  MC 7  Sam Ryder  T28 8  Cameron Tringale  T13 9  Scottie Scheffler  T28 10  Richy Werenski  MC 11  Lanto Griffin  Win 12  Luke List  T28 13  Brian Gay  T42 14  Pat Perez  DNP 15  Bud Cauley  T9 Wild Card  Kevin Chappell  MC Sleepers Recap – Houston Open Golfer  Result Doc Redman  T13 Zach Sucher  MC Michael Thompson  MC Peter Uihlein  MC Xinjun Zhang  T4 Birthdays among active golfers on the PGA TOUR October 15 … none October 16 … Ryan Blaum (36) October 17 … Ernie Els (50) October 18 … Todd Hamilton (54) October 19 … Louis Oosthuizen (37) October 20 … none October 21 … none

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NORTON, Mass. (AP) — Dustin Johnson looked dominant as he ever as, and nothing could stop him Sunday in THE NORTHERN TRUST. Not even the weather. Johnson played the final two holes in near darkness after a late storm delay and finished with a birdie for an 8-under 63 and an 11-shot victory over Harris English. It was the 22nd victory of his PGA TOUR career, and he never made it look easier. Johnson won his fifth FedExCup Playoffs event — tied with Rory McIlroy for most — and now leads the FedExCup standings and also returned to No. 1 in the world. He finished at 30-under 254. Staked to a five-shot lead over Harris English going into the final round, Johnson sent a towering 7-iron over the water to a front pin on the par-5 second, the ball settling 8 feet next to the pin for an eagle. Two holes later, his 3-wood was placed perfectly in front of the fourth green for a simple up-and-down for birdie. It was like that all day. It was like that all week. He led by five and went out in 30, stretching his lead to seven shots at the turn. On the 500-yard 12th hole, where on Saturday he hit a tight draw with a 6-iron to a foot, this time he hit a slight fade with a 6-iron to 3 feet for anther birdie. The only drama was whether he could set two PGA TOUR scoring records — 31-under par by Ernie Els at Kapalua in 2003, and the 253 by Justin Thomas at the Sony Open in 2017. But after that birdie on the 12th put him at 29 under, Johnson settled into four straight pars. He is only the third player to finish 30 under, joining Els and Jordan Spieth, also at Kapalua. So he at least owns the record on the mainland. It was reminiscent of Friday, when he was 11 under through 11 holes and the only question was whether he could become the first player to shoot 57. He made seven straight pars for a 60. This closing stretch was different. Johnson cares more about trophies than records, and getting his round finished was all that mattered. It was like that three years ago at Riviera, when he was poised to break Lanny Wadkins’ 72-hole record at Riviera, the longest standing on the PGA TOUR schedule. But he finished with three bogeys over the last 10 holes playing conservatively, and only later said he didn’t know what the record was. Nor did he care. English tried to hold his own, three times matching birdies with Johnson. He finished with a bogey that didn’t matter, shot 69 and moved to No. 6 in the FedExCup. English started the year without a full card. Now he has locked up a spot in the TOUR Championship. There’s just no stopping Johnson when he puts all parts of his game together, particularly the irons. Johnson didn’t miss a green in the final round. Kevin Kisner, who grew up playing junior golf with Johnson in South Carolina, has seen this all before. “He can absolutely dismantle a golf course when he’s on,” Kisner said. “I’ve been watching it for 25 years. I’m pretty accustomed to it. When he’s on, I just step to the side and try to add to my bank account.” Kisner did that part well. He closed with a 66, well enough that he is in good shape in his bid to lock up a spot in the TOUR Championship. He had said all week he wanted to take care of that at the TPC Boston instead of having to deliver next week in the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields, a course he has never seen. The top 70 in the FedExCup advance to the BMW Championship, and there was one shot that mattered when play resumed. Louis Oosthuizen at No. 99 in the standings was in the 18th fairway, easily in range of the green on the par-5 closing hole. He managed a two-putt birdie in the dark to lock up the 70th spot. Robby Shelton closed with a 63, enough for him to be among six players who moved into the top 70. The others were Oosthuizen, Harry Higgs, Alex Noren, Russell Henley and Jason Kokrak. Five of the six players knocked out missed the cut, including Phil Mickelson. The other was Denny McCarthy, who shot 73 on Sunday.

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