Win probabilities: The Open Championship

The Barracuda Championship is the only PGA TOUR event that uses the Modified Stableford scoring format, which encourages aggressive play. Combine the format with Reno’s altitude — which allows the ball to travel farther — and fans can expect to see plenty of birdies. Unlike traditional scoring methods, where the aim is to have the lowest score, the objective in a Modified Stableford tournament is to have the highest score. POINTS STRUCTURE Modified Stableford awards points based on the number of strokes taken at each hole. Scoring at the 2019 Barracuda Championship will look like this: • Double Eagle: 8 points • Eagle: 5 points • Birdie: 2 points • Par: 0 points • Bogey: -1 point • Double Bogey or more: -3 points PLAYING STRATEGY The strategy in Modified Stableford formats can, in most instances, be summed up in three words: “Go for it.” This scoring format will reward risk-taking on the golf course. For instance, if the professional is facing a carry over water that he normally wouldn’t try, the Modified Stableford format presents an incentive to go for it. A birdie is worth twice as many positive points (2) as a bogey is worth punitive points (-1). Eagles offer huge payoffs (5 points) and the worst a player could possibly do would be a double bogey (-3 points) at which point he could pick up his ball and carry on to the next hole. Those golfers who make a few bogeys but also make a lot of birdies or eagles are more likely to be atop the leaderboards.

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Sam Ryder … Rookies struggle in crashing the field of 132 at TPC Scottsdale because the cutoff for entry usually lands near the top of the Web.com Tour graduate reshuffle category. So, when he got off to a slow start as a rookie in 2017-18, he didn’t come close to snaring a tee time. Now that he’s fully exempt for finishing inside the top 125 of the FedExCup, the hurdle is history. Even better, he aligns with the profile for success better than many who have been here before. He finished last season ranked T10 in total driving, second in greens in regulation and T16 in proximity to the hole. He also finished ninth in good drive percentage, a value reflecting a combination of fairways hit and greens or fringe in regulation on par 4s and par 5s. It’s a skill with which course co-collaborator and updater, Tom Weiskopf, was associated. You’ll also find it peppered throughout this week’s Sleepers. Ryder already is on the board this season with a pair of top fives, including a solo third at TPC Summerlin, another desert layout. Ted Potter Jr. … When the lefty is on his game, he’s splitting every fairway and going bonkers with the putter. Not long off the tee as compared to most of his peers, it helps explain why he’s able to prevail in tournaments like the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. which he’ll be defending next week. His one-two punch can inflict some damage at TPC Scottsdale as well. At 7,261 yards stretched out, it’s about average on the PGA TOUR. He connected four red numbers en route to a T24 in 2013, but hasn’t returned since missing the cut a year later. Currently fourth in good drive percentage, 22nd in driving accuracy and 21st in greens in regulation. Already has a pair of top 15s on suitable course for him this season – The Club at Nine Bridges and Waialae. Vaughn Taylor … No matter the existing design of TPC Scottsdale when he’s appeared and despite the five-year hiatus from the tournament until his return in 2017, he’s acquitted himself nicely over time. Overall, he’s 7-for-9 with a solo seventh and a pair of T11s, one of the latter of which last year. For all of 2017-18, he ranked 12th in good drive percentage. Took last week off after a T7 at the Desert Classic where he placed T8 in good drive percentage and T5 in putts per GIR. Brian Stuard … While his lone PGA TOUR victory occurred in the last edition of the Zurich Classic of New Orleans as an individual competition in 2016, which was shortened to 54 holes due to weather, he’s profiled best throughout his career in the tropics. A T8 at Waialae three weeks ago helped prove that point. However, TPC Scottsdale has been good to the veteran as he’s yet to miss a cut in five tries. His record includes a T10 in 2015 and a T16 in 2017. Finished last season ranked 18th in good drive percentage. Matthew Wolff … Of all the places where he could have splashed onto the PGA TOUR, he landed in a dandy. The 19-year-old sophomore at Oklahoma State University turns heads with his funky action. It’s a move that’s vaulted him to No. 4 in the World Amateur Golf Ranking. He walked off 2018 with two outright wins, a share of another title and a fourth-place finish at an amateur event at renown Royal Melbourne Golf Club. While a direct parallel to Jon Rahm is unfair to both golfers, it was in 2015 when the Spaniard placed T5 as an amateur at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, proving that the test is fair no matter the inexperience at this level. Wolff’s skill set can’t help but remain sharp given that one of his fellow Cowboys is 2018 U.S. Amateur champion Viktor Hovland, who sits No. 3 in the WAGR. NOTE: Sleeper is a relative term, so Rob uses unofficial criteria to determine who qualifies. Each of the following usually is determined to be ineligible for this weekly staple: Winners of the tournament on the current host course; winners in the same season; recent major champions; top 50 in the Official World Golf Ranking; recent participants of team competitions.

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TONY FINAU WINS 3M OPEN FOR THIRD PGA TOUR TITLE Wednesday afternoon, Tony Finau read an article that listed him as the betting favorite for the 3M Open, also noting he was the world’s highest ranked player in the field at TPC Twin Cities. Finau channeled that pressure into a sparkling performance, carding a four-round total of 17-under for a three-stroke victory over Sungjae Im and Emiliano Grillo, his third career PGA TOUR title. The 32-year-old father of five trailed 54-hole leader Scott Piercy by five strokes heading into Sunday in Minnesota but caught fire with three consecutive birdies on Nos. 14-16 Sunday, as Piercy stumbled to a back-nine 41 that included a triple bogey on No. 14. Ever the sportsman, Piercy made a beeline for Finau post-round to provide congratulations – the two go back to the Ultimate Game in 2007, a high-stakes competition in Las Vegas where Piercy won $2 million; Finau was just 17 years old at the time. “He was genuinely happy for me,” Finau said, “which I think makes our game so great.” Also on hand in Minnesota were Finau’s wife and five kids, marking the first time the entire family was able to celebrate a TOUR title together in real-time. Finau accrues 500 FedExCup points for his victory and moves to No. 17 on the season-long standings. He also moves to No. 7 on the United States President Cup standings, as he strives to secure a spot at Quail Hollow in September. BLASTING OFF TO ROCKET MORTGAGE CLASSIC The Rocket Mortgage Classic is the penultimate event of the PGA TOUR’s Regular Season before the FedExCup Playoffs begin. The field is full of stars and those looking to either get into the Playoffs or improve their standings. Reigning FedExCup champion Patrick Cantlay leads the field in Detroit as the PGA TOUR inches closer to crowning the champion of this season’s FedExCup. Rookie of the Year frontrunner Cameron Young, who’s 13th in the FedExCup, returns to action after his runner-up at The Open. Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala are also among the up-and-coming stars in the field who have been knocking on the door as they seek their first PGA TOUR victory. Tony Finau, Max Homa, Kevin Kisner, Harris English and Rickie Fowler are also in the field; the latter two are looking to lock up FedExCup Playoffs berths. There are 11 major champions in the field, and the winner receives 500 FedExCup points. VIDEO OF THE WEEK MIC CHECK “I knew it was going to be an honor if I had the chance of playing in it.” – Jake Olson, 25, who competed in the inaugural U.S. Adaptive Open last week at Pinehurst No. 6. Olson was the only completely blind golfer in the field. Check out Olson’s story of resilience here, and about the time he got to spend with Tiger Woods. BY THE NUMBERS 28 – Under-par total for David Kocher on the week at the Price Cutter Charity Championship presented by Dr Pepper on the Korn Ferry Tour. The 26-year-old Maryland graduate won by six shots. 69 – Final-round score for Darren Clarke in the final round of The Senior Open Championship presented by Rolex, good enough for a one-shot victory over Padraig Harrington at Gleneagles in Scotland. 87 – Length in feet that C.T. Pan made on a putt on the par-5 18th hole on Sunday at the 3M Open. It was the second-longest putt made by anyone on the PGA TOUR this season. COMCAST BUSINESS TOUR TOP 10 The Comcast Business TOUR TOP 10 highlights and rewards the extraordinary level of play required to earn a spot in the TOP 10 at the conclusion of the FedExCup Regular Season as determined by the FedExCup standings. The competition recognizes and awards the most elite in golf.

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