Win probabilities: The American Express

2022 ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, Round 2 Top 10 win probabilities: 1. Hideki Matsuyama (1, -8, 32.9%) 2. Cameron Tringale (2, -7, 16.3%) 3. Joaquin Niemann (T5, -5, 8.5%) 4. Tommy Fleetwood (T5, -5, 7.2%) 5. Matt Wallace (T3, -6, 6.8%) 6. Brendan Steele (T3, -6, 5.9%) 7. Alex Noren (T7, -4, 3.8%) 8. Matt Jones (T7, -4, 2.8%) 9. Lanto Griffin (T7, -4, 2.7%) 10. Sebastian Munoz (T7, -4, 2.2%) Top Strokes-Gained Performers from Round 2: Putting: Patrick Reed +4.3 Around the Green: Webb Simpson +2.4 Approach the Green: Abraham Ancer +4.2 Off-the-tee: Charley Hoffman +1.9 Total: Mackenzie Hughes +6.2 NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Shriners Children’s Open, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

Click here to read the full article…

KAPALUA, Hawaii — A new year, and Harris English keeps right on rolling. RELATED: Leaderboard | Bold predictions for 2021 English finished with a 10-foot birdie to cap off an ideal Friday at the Sentry Tournament of Champions with a 6-under 67, giving him a two-shot lead over a quartet of players that includes defending champion Justin Thomas. Even with a lead, it feels as though the first PGA TOUR event of the year is wide open. With virtually no wind, rare for the Plantation Course at Kapalua, scores remained low and several players were stacked up behind him. That includes Masters champion Dustin Johnson, who hit it close enough all round to make a few putts in his round of 65. “Felt like I got back in the tournament a little bit,” said Johnson, playing for the first time since his Nov. 15 victory at Augusta National. English is among 16 players at the winners-only event who didn’t win last year. Because of the COVID-19 pandemic that wiped out three months on the TOUR schedule, anyone who reached the TOUR Championship qualified this year. English did everything but win, going from No. 369 in the world to among the top 30. And he’s playing like it. He was bogey-free and rarely faced any stress. It’s hard to feel that on the western edge of Maui, and English was entertained by a pair of humpback whales splashing their fins in the Pacific below the course. He was at 14-under 132, two shots ahead of Thomas, PGA champion Collin Morikawa (65), Daniel Berger (65) and Ryan Palmer (67), another player who didn’t win in 2020 and was happy to be here. Thomas lost some of his Aloha spirit on the back nine. He had a one-shot lead at the turn, missed a short birdie chance on the par-3 11th and then struggled to keep it in play. A drive to the left in the native grass kept him from a good birdie opportunity on the short 12th. He hit another one to the left into high grass on the 13th and made his first bogey. Thomas also failed to convert chances on the next four holes, and the 18th was looking grim when he missed a long iron and came up 40 yards short, a perilous spot with a front pin and the grain running hard toward the back. He clipped a sand wedge and it was about to go too far when it hit the pin and dropped 3 feet away. He made that for his only birdie on the back nine and shot 69. He was among 16 players separated by four shots going into the final two days. Xander Schauffele holed an 80-foot eagle putt on the 18th for a 66 and was in the group at 11-under 135 that included Patrick Reed, who had a 68. Another shot behind was the group that included Johnson, Jon Rahm (66) and U.S. Open champion Bryson DeChambeau (67).

Click here to read the full article…

CARNOUSTIE, Scotland – Tiger Woods was 19 years old when he made his links debut at the 1995 Scottish Open at Carnoustie. As he stood on the range for the first time that week, he saw a 100-meter sign … and took dead aim. Using a variety of irons, he practiced the low-trajectory run-up shots needed to navigate this unfamiliar style of course, each time trying to hit that 100-meter sign, no matter the club loft. His dad Earl eventually spoke up, asking if Tiger was ever planning to hit a ball past the sign. “No, I’m just enjoying this,â€� replied Tiger. “Are you kidding me? This is the best.â€� Tiger told that story on Tuesday, a quick stroll down memory lane as he prepped for his first Open Championship start since 2015. It brought a smile to his face, as recalling the days of innocence often do. “I spent probably close to two hours on the range just hitting balls before I even went and played because I thought it was just the best, seeing the ball bounce and being creative and using my mind,â€� Woods said. It was a new experience for the then-U.S. Amateur champ, who grew up in Southern California where golf success relied on vertical – not horizontal — prowess. Getting to attempt a putt from 120 yards, which he did on the second hole of his practice round, was a thrill. So was trying to win a closest-to-the-pin wager with his dad on the eighth hole. “It stuck with me,â€� Tiger said. “You see I’m just telling the story now. Those little moments like that – that was my introduction to links golf. Carnoustie and St. Andrews. Doesn’t get any better than that.â€� Woods was a quick study that week, entering the final round in a tie for 12th before fading with a 78 that left him tied for 48th. His next two trips to Carnoustie were a little more productive – a T-7 at the 1999 Open and a T-12 in 2007. It wasn’t too long ago, though, that Woods thought he might never play another Open Championship because of his back issues that required four surgeries. His last appearance at St. Andrews did not go well – he finished the first two rounds at 7 over, missing the cut for just the second time in his Open career. Woods made just three more starts in 2015, then spent the ensuing two years in a holding pattern as the golf world wondered if he’d ever return – and to what form if he did. Woods, of course, is now back on a regular schedule, making his 12th start of the PGA TOUR season this week. He comes off a T-4 at the Quicken Loans National, his third top-10 finish, although he hasn’t contended in the first two majors – T-32 at the Masters and a missed cut at the U.S. Open. The Open Championship, which has produced three of his 14 career majors, might be his best bet now to add to that total. It gives him a chance to use his creativity – the thing that so excited him the first time he visited Carnoustie. “I love playing here, this type of links golf, or a style of links golf down on the Aussie sand belt,â€� said Woods, who will be the U.S. Team captain at The Presidents Cup next year at Royal Melbourne. “I enjoy this type of golf because it is creative. “We’re not going to get the most perfect bounces. A certain shot that is hit [and] you think is a wonderful shot down the middle of the fairway could bounce some weird way. That’s just part of it. And I think that’s the fun challenge of it. “Feel has a lot to do with playing The Open and I think the guys traditionally over the years who have done well have been wonderful feel players.â€� Tiger said his “feelsâ€� are much better now than at the start of the year, and that he has a better understanding of his game and swing than he did at Augusta National in April. The challenge at Carnoustie will be to utilize those feels on a course that is expected to be firm and fast due to unseasonably dry conditions in Scotland – although there was a brief shower on Tuesday as Tiger met the media. To adjust to the conditions – Woods said the fairways were actually running faster than the greens a few days ago – he has decided to stick a 2-iron with 17 degrees of loft in his bag this week. He intends to use the club as a driving iron because drivers are rolling too far out, as much as 80 yards, noted Woods. He added that 4- and 5-irons are running out beyond 50 yards; during a practice round Monday, Woods hit his 3-iron 333 yards off the 18th tee. “Going to be a real interesting test in how we’re going to manage our way around the golf course,â€� he said. Course management and creativity give Tiger hope that he’ll be an Open contender for at least another decade, perhaps longer. He noted Tom Watson nearly winning the 2009 Open at age 59, and Greg Norman holding the 54-hole lead at age 54 in 2008. Woods, now 42 years old, remains plenty long off the tee; he ranks 28th in driving distance with a 304.9-yard average. But he realizes at some point that his power will drop off. Fortunately, it’s not as big a detriment on a links-style course as it is at the big events in the U.S. “You go to places like Augusta National, where it’s just a big ballpark, and the golf course outgrows you,â€� he said. “That’s just the way it goes. But links-style golf course, you can roll the ball. … Even if I get a little bit older, I can still chase some wood or long club down there and hit the ball the same distance. “Distance becomes a moot point on a links-style golf course, but creativity plays such an important role.â€� Especially when you’re 19 years old and trying to bounce a ball off a 100-meter sign with a 4-iron.

Click here to read the full article…