Win probabilities: RBC Heritage

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PALM HARBOR, Fla. — Matthew NeSmith tied the Copperhead course record at Innisbrook with a 10-under 61 and set the tournament record for 36 holes in building a two-shot lead going into the weekend at the Valspar Championship. RELATED: Leaderboard | Justin Thomas determined to return to winner’s circle at Valspar Championship Scoring has been low all week after rain softened the course and the wind has been minimal. Even so, no one had posted better than 64 until NeSmith put together the round that was more than nine shots better than the average. He had eagle putts on three of four par 5s, making an 8-footer on the par-5 14th. He shot 30 on the front nine, and his 18-foot birdie putt on his final hole at No. 9 burned the edge of the cup. The 61 tied the course set by Padraig Harrington in 2012. NeSmith was at 14-under 128, breaking by two shots the 36-hole record at the Valspar Championship that Sam Burns and Keegan Bradley set a year ago. Adam Hadwin of Canada, whose lone PGA TOUR victory was five years ago at Innisbrook, had a 66 and was two shots behind. Burns remained in the hunt in the title defense of his first PGA TOUR victory. He recovered from a rugged start to post a 67 and was three shots behind with Scott Stallings (66). Justin Thomas was four behind. NeSmith only missed one fairway and two greens, and the only stress he was under came on the par-4 second hole, his 11th of the day, when he had to make an 8-foot par putt to avoid a three-putt from 50 feet. His bonus came two holes later by making a 40-footer on the par-3 fourth. Two days around the Copperhead course has created very little stress for Hadwin, with his game and between the ears. He has been patient about when to attack and relied on confidence in his putting stroke to pile up the birdies and one big par. He was out of position on the seventh hole in the right bunker when he made a 15-foot putt to escape with par. On the par-3 eighth, he made a 20-foot birdie and before long was on his way. “The par putt on 7 was a big one to get me going,” Hadwin said. “I hit some good putts previously but didn’t get any out of it. They started to find the center after that.” Thomas was right alongside him most of the morning, running off four birdies in a five-hole stretch along the back nine. He took care of both par 5s on the front nine and was at 12 under when he attempted one shot he would like to have back. Blocked by a tree in the rough, Thomas thought he could get enough spin on his ball to hook it toward the green with a 52-degree wedge. It just didn’t work out that way. He missed well to the right by some 30 yards, put it into a bunker between him and the green and took double bogey. He had to settle for another 66, a good effort over 36 holes, and a reminder to not take on too much, especially in the early rounds. “I should have just tried to hit it in the front bunker and it was a pretty easy up-and-down,” Thomas said. “As soft as the greens are, I was like, ‘If I can get this thing turning and landing around there, I can actually have a putt at this.’ As good as I felt with my putter, I felt like if I got it on the green, I could make a 3. But it wasn’t necessary. It just didn’t really need to happen.”

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How it works: Each week, our experts from PGATOUR.COM will make their selections in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. Each lineup consists of four starters and two bench players that can be rotated after each round. Adding to the challenge is that every golfer can be used only three times per each of four Segments. The first fantasy golf game to utilize live ShotLink data, PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf allows you to see scores update live during competition. Aside from the experts below, Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton breaks down the field at this year’s Sentry Tournament of Champions in his edition of the Power Rankings. For more fantasy, check out Rookie Watch, Qualifiers and Reshuffle. THINK YOU’RE BETTER THAN OUR EXPERTS? The PGA TOUR Experts league is once again open to the public. You can play our free fantasy game and see how you measure up against our experts below. Joining the league is simple. Just click here to sign up or log in. Once you create your team, click the “Leagues” tab and search for “PGA TOUR Experts.” After that? Pick your players and start talking smack. Want to represent the fans against our experts? SEASON SEGMENT

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