Win probabilities: RBC Heritage

It’s the annual exhale following the Masters, but this year’s RBC Heritage presents its own hype. The tournament is celebrating its 50th edition this week. Thirty-three who competed at Augusta National Golf Club — three of whom recorded a top 10 and another six a top 25 — made the short trip to Harbour Town Golf Links along the Calibogue Sound that helps frame Hilton Head Island in South Carolina. For details on how the Pete Dye design should test the 132-man field, scroll beneath the ranking. POWER RANKINGS: RBC HERITAGE COMMENT PLAYER RANK The native of nearby Savannah, Georgia, recorded top 10s here in 2014 and 2017. Since last year’s T9, he’s added 11 top10s. He’s got no weaknesses as he’s dangerous throughout his bag. The recent runner-up at the Match Play lost in a playoff at Harbour Town in 2015. He also finished T11 last year after sitting T3 through 54 holes, and is eighth on TOUR in strokes gained: putting. It’s comical how well he’s performed at Harbour Town and still remains in pursuit of his first victory. Since 2009, he’s 9-for-9 with five seconds (one playoff loss), two thirds and a T15. His first appearance since 2009 allows him to test a newly refined approach game on a course where he can holster the driver. The world’s top-ranked talent leads TOUR in adjusted scoring. Perfect in all 14 appearances since 2004, he’s logged five top 10s, including the 2014 title. He’s no worse than T11 in the last four editions. Top 10s most recently in Austin and Houston. It’s remarkable how he’s adapted with his putter. He’s currently 10th on TOUR in strokes gained: putting and seventh in scrambling. A playoff victim here in 2013 and 7-for-7 since 2010. So much for the expectation to slide after Valspar win. He was eliminated from Match Play in pool-play playoff; T15 at Masters. Spot starts at Harbour Town include three top 25s from 2009-2014. He continues to impress on the biggest stages. Chased a T5 at the Match Play and the same at the Masters. He now has 11 top 20s in his last 14 starts worldwide. T15 here in 2015. He made it 5-for-5 at the Masters with a T12 punctuated by an ace at the par-3 16th on Sunday. He’s got top 20s in three of last five starts, and has a trio of top 15s at Harbour Town in eight visits. He’s 4-for-4 with no worse than a T18 at Harbour Town since 2014. Co-runner-up in 2016. Three top 20s in 2018. Inside the top 30 in both greens in regulation and proximity to the hole. Only has one top 25 (T9, 2013) in eight appearances, but is now a threat everywhere he commits. Four top 10s in 2018, including a solo ninth at the Masters where he was T4 in scrambling. He’s quietly crafting a solid season with six top 25s, including in each of his last five starts. Elevated ball-striking has yielded consistency, and top-shelf putting vaults him onto leaderboards. Failing to put four rounds together is shrouding his slots in GIR (46th), proximity (5th), scrambling (27th) and adjusted scoring (18th). The 2012 runner-up is 9-for-12 at Harbour Town. He finished T44 at the Masters as the last qualifier. The sometimer at Harbour Town posted top 20s in 2015 and 2017, and now has renewed confidence with his putter to match strong ball-striking. He’s comfortable at Harbour Town with three top 10s since 2014 and a scoring average of 69.44 in his last 16 rounds. His up-and-down 2017-18 features a T16 at the Valspar a month ago. Kevin Chappell, Jason Dufner, Brandt Snedeker and Luke List will be among the notables covered in Tuesday’s Fantasy Insider. Harbour Town is a third-shot track if there ever was one. The notion that greens averaging just 3,700 square feet demand precision on approach ignores the ease of salvaging par on a course where par has value. In benign conditions last year, the field averaged 70.676 on the par 36-35=71 measuring 7,099 yards. So, there’s no reason to panic after failing to find targets from the sky. Although the 2017 field averaged a little better than 11 greens in regulation per round, when it needed to scramble for par, it did so successfully nearly two-thirds of the time. En route to his breakthrough victory, Wesley Bryan authored a classic case for the opportunity that doesn’t discriminate against the extremes. Despite slotting just T55 in fairways hit and T66 in GIR, he carded four rounds in the 60s. He ranked seventh in proximity to the hole and led the field in scrambling. We should witness a mixed bag of (front-loaded) scoring this week. Primarily cooperative conditions are forecast through Saturday, albeit with intensifying winds of 10-15 mph by the third round. Come Sunday, the elevated risk of rain and storms will be accompanied by sustained winds flirting with and likely exceeding 20 mph. Therefore, experience, low ball flight and patience should connect the contenders for the tartan jacket. ROB BOLTON’S SCHEDULE PGATOUR.COM’s Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton covers numerous angles in between tournaments. Look for his following contributions this week. MONDAY: Rookie Ranking, Qualifiers, Reshuffle, Medical Extensions, Power Rankings TUESDAY*: Sleepers, Facebook Live, Fantasy Insider WEDNESDAY: One & Done THURSDAY: Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Champions One & Done * – Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO, which also publishes on Tuesdays.

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In a Hall of Fame career where he has found success at venues all over the world, Phil Mickelson has found a surprising fit in Memphis, Tennessee. This week will mark the tenth career start at TPC Southwind for Mickelson, and the ninth time he’s teed it up here since 2013. In those previous eight starts, he’s finished in the top-three four times and finished worse than 12th only once. Mickelson has played eight or more rounds on more than 25 PGA TOUR courses since 2013. In that span, his best scoring average (68.47) and Strokes Gained: Total per round (+1.92) have come at TPC Southwind. So what is it about this course that brings out the best in the reigning PGA Champion? THE BENEFIT OF BOMBS We all know Lefty’s love of hitting – in his words – both bombs and hellacious seeds. That can be a good thing when playing in Memphis: aggressive choices off the tee have been beneficial to players at TPC Southwind over the years. Distance has proven to be more valuable than hitting the fairway at TPC Southwind. Over the last six years, players who hit one more driver off the tee than normal gain about two-tenths of a stroke on the field. In the last eight years, Mickelson has averaged just over three misses left per round with his tee shots at TPC Southwind, and just over two misses right per round. Both of those averages are more than what he’s done on every other PGA TOUR course in that span. Despite that, his Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee numbers are almost identical – 0.35 per round on this course, 0.37 everywhere else. Mickelson’s aggressive play is unlikely to come back to bite him at TPC Southwind – in fact, it’s helping him succeed. SIGNIFICANCE OF APPROACH PLAY Since 2013, Mickelson gains about twice as many strokes per round on approach at TPC Southwind (+0.57) than he does on all other courses in that span (+0.29). That is important on a golf course that rewards strong approach play more than normal. Traditionally, the greens in regulation rate by the field at this course are between 3-6 percent lower than the PGA TOUR average that given season. Since 2010, players who have won at TPC Southwind rank about 29 percent better in Strokes Gained: Approach than the average PGA TOUR winner during that same span. Four of the previous six winners at TPC Southwind ranked either first or second that week in Strokes Gained: Approach. Mickelson has had positive Strokes Gained: Approach in 68.8 percent of his rounds at TPC Southwind since 2013. Everywhere else in that span, it’s a rate of 57.3 percent. PUTTING NUMBERS SKYROCKET “I think it’s (TPC Southwind) the most underrated course we have on TOUR,” Mickelson said in 2015. “It’s such a straightforward, fun test of golf. And if you hit good shots you get rewarded with good putts and birdies.” Mickelson would know – he’s made a ton of birdies at TPC Southwind. He’s averaged 4.41 birdies-or-better per round, in fact, since 2013, the third-highest average among players in that span. And while his performance through the bag has been stellar at this course over the years, it’s his putting that really takes off when he gets to Memphis. Mickelson consistently makes more short to mid-range putts at TPC Southwind. From four to eight feet, Mickelson has made 82.3 percent of his attempts since 2013 at this course. Everywhere else, it’s 70.1 percent. From five to ten feet, it’s an improvement of 12 percent. From ten to fifteen feet, his make rate jumps 5.1 percent. The strokes really add up over the course of the week. Since 2013, Mickelson has averaged 0.92 Strokes Gained: Putting per round at this course, the second-highest average of any player in that span with a dozen or more rounds played. That is more than three-and-a-half times more Strokes Gained per round on the greens than he’s racked up on all other PGA TOUR courses during that same stretch (+0.24 per round). There are 193 players with ten or more PGA TOUR rounds at TPC Southwind since 2010 – the summer Mickelson turned 40 years old. Of that group, only three players have a better scoring average than Mickelson (68.5). Less than 13 percent of those players have averaged a full stroke or more gained tee-to-green per round at TPC Southwind in that span – Mickelson is one of them. Aggressive tee shots and agreeable putting surfaces have made Mickelson and Memphis a perfect match.

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Spieth a perfect fit for Travelers?

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