Win probabilities: Masters Tournament

Only one thing can bump the lede this week – another reminder that the Farmers Insurance Open is scheduled to begin on Wednesday. As a result, the roster deadline for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf is 9:00 a.m. PT. That’s noon on the East Coast. Adjust accordingly. All right, hopefully you arrived here without too much trouble. Whatever your experience, thank you for making the effort and, as always, for your loyalty. Indeed, the Fantasy Insider now is Draws & Fades. RELATED: Five Things to Know: Torrey Pines | How to watch Wednesday start That’s it. Nothing else changes. It’s just a rebranding. Everything you’ve come to expect from this space remains, well, except for my lineup at PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. That’s over in Expert Picks where it always has been. Once ShotLink was removed from scoring, it became redundant to park it here, too. I’d ask for you to tell the others of the name change, but I learned long ago in this business that the more I help you, the less you share it. As a result of that, it’s still a strange feeling when any gamer spreads the word, but, and of course, it’s always appreciated. With that message out of the way, you know what to do at the Farmers Insurance Open. As noted in Monday’s Power Rankings, the North Course at Torrey Pines will surrender much lower scores in comparison to the South, so exploit it. With the North co-hosting the first and second rounds, PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf gamers can map out a maximum of six starts on it. Weather conditions should be similar in both rounds, so it won’t matter if you load up with four in either round or split it into three per. POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD Scottie Scheffler (+110 for a Top 20) … Consider him as an extension of the Power Rankings proper. Paid off sneaking inside the cut line at The American Express with a Sunday 67 and a T25. You love to see it. He’s 0-for-2 at the Farmers but connected for a T7 at the 2021 U.S. Open, so he deserves our trust. DRAWS Daniel Berger (+200 for a Top 10) … It took him a while but he finally got over on Torrey Pines for a T7 at the 2021 U.S. Open. He’s been dynamite just about everywhere for two years, so it’s fair to say that he’s a snub from the Power Rankings. Jordan Spieth (+160 for a Top 20) … He’s never contended at Torrey Pines – last year’s T19 in the U.S. Open equaled his best finish in six Farmers starts (2014) – but this is as simple as being able to trust in him again. His last missed cut anywhere was here last year, but that’s a long time ago. The site is a coincidence. Dustin Johnson (+100 for a Top 20) … This is just his second start of the season and first in over three months since a T45 at THE CJ CUP @ SUMMIT. It’s especially hard to believe given the time of year because he didn’t qualify for the Sentry TOC, but don’t let that fool you into a no-play. He’s logged 30 rounds in this tournament where he’s 6-for-9 with three top 20s (albeit it’s been six years since his most recent) and another four en route to a T19 at the 2021 U.S. Open. Go ahead and let this dog eat. Brooks Koepka (+150 for a Top 20) … He never makes it easy on us, but I believe his rhetoric about wanting to perform consistently stronger in non-majors. He wouldn’t put himself out there if that wasn’t the case. A T4 in last year’s U.S. Open is his only top 40 among two paydays in four appearances at Torrey Pines, so he’s had success here. Yeah, yeah, that was a major, but the stage showcases the best for a reason. Joaquin Niemann (+275 for a Top 20) … His 3-for-3 record at Torrey Pines is highlighted by a T31 at the 2021 U.S. Open, but he closed out his first two Farmers with an 80 and a 75, respectively. So, as every touring professional can attest, it’s just a matter of putting four rounds together. Although he closed out the fall with a pair of missed cuts, he’s battled for paydays at an exponentially higher rate than even gamers realize. Keegan Bradley Corey Conners Talor Gooch Billy Horschel Sungjae Im Matt Jones Maverick McNealy J.T. Poston Brandt Snedeker Matthew Wolff Odds sourced on Monday, January 24 at 5 a.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm. FADES Hudson Swafford … It’s not wrong to label The American Express as a putting contest, but only when you accept that those putts better be for par breakers. He averaged 13 greens in regulation per round to rank T21 and converted a higher percentage into par breakers (55.77%; 29-for-52) than everyone else. He used the same formula to prevail at Corales in 2020, and he acknowledged his timely knack for finding the hole that week. Putting isn’t necessarily a strength, but it’s not a liability, either, so we need him to put it on display in consecutive starts. At Torrey Pines, he’s cashed only once (T13, 2016) in five trips, so we can play the role as spectator this week. Mackenzie Hughes … Off to a blazing start this season with a T4 (ZOZO) and a solo second (RSM) baked into a 5-for-5 record. He’s also signed for a pair of 62s and a 63. I’m inclined to go all-in or abstain completely because he hasn’t made much noise at the Farmers (2-for-5, no top 25s), but he did finish T15 here at the 2021 U.S. Open. This typically means that he’d be a gamechanger in DFS. Mito Pereira … Given how he seemed to be everywhere last summer – because he was – it’s been odd not to follow him for over two months now. After opening his rookie season with a solo third at Silverado, he lowered his sails by comparison, so use the deep field at Torrey Pines as an opportunity to see how he fares in his debut. Cameron Champ Jason Day Rickie Fowler Emiliano Grillo Keith Mitchell Patrick Rodgers Jhonattan Vegas Gary Woodland RETURNING TO COMPETITION Bryson DeChambeau (+180 for a Top 10) … He’s in the Power Rankings, but it’s relevant to add here that this is his first start since citing a sore left wrist that precluded his appearance at Waialae two weeks ago. It shouldn’t be surprising given how he tests the limits of his body, but we also shouldn’t be concerned given his intelligence in resolving challenges. In other words, trust him. NOTABLE WDs Charley Hoffman … This stinks as it would have been his 25th appearance at the Farmers. The San Diego native hasn’t competed since missing the cut at Mayakoba in early November. He withdrew early from Houston with a sore back, and he was an early exit from last week’s Amex. Lucas Herbert … He’s committed to the DP WORLD Tour’s Slync.io Dubai Desert Classic. The recent winner of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship is juggling the welcome problem of calculating when to honor obligations on multiple circuits. We watch it happen every year with dual-tour members. K.H. Lee … Connected for his sixth consecutive payday last week, but closed with a 76 and a three-way share of 63rd place. Whatever. He’s rapidly become a favorite among hardcore gamers and he’s 74th in the FedExCup. Nate Lashley … After opening this season with three paydays in as many starts, he’s gone just 1-for-5 with a T51 at Sea Island. The 39-year-old deserves consideration only in the deepest of full-season formats. Ryan Moore … After missing the cut at The American Express, he’s down to three starts on his Major Medical Extension to earn 94.203 FedExCup points and retain status. His safety net is conditional status, but the 39-year-old is too close to the primary target to settle for that. Still, it makes it difficult to own him in any long-term format until he shows signs of escaping the worst-case scenario, not to mention the proof that he can put four rounds together again. Kelly Kraft … Has five starts on his medical, but he’s safe all season as a Korn Ferry Tour grad. It’s just that there’s only one paycheck on the board in eight starts this season. Chris Stroud … Yet another on a medical extension, his in the KFT graduate reshuffle category. With 14 starts remaining, he can spread those over quite a bit of the remainder of the season and not sweat it in the short-term. RECAP – THE AMERICAN EXPRESS POWER RANKINGS Power Ranking Golfer Result 1 Jon Rahm T14 2 Patrick Cantlay 9th 3 Matthew Wolff MC 4 Scottie Scheffler T25 5 Sungjae Im T11 6 Seamus Power T14 7 Tony Finau T40 8 Corey Conners MC 9 Talor Gooch MC 10 Abraham Ancer T40 11 Justin Rose T33 12 Patrick Reed T55 13 Michael Thompson MC 14 Cameron Tringale MC 15 Will Zalatoris T6 Wild Card Si Woo Kim T11 SLEEPERS Golfer (Prop) Result Sebastián Muñoz (top 20) MC J.T. Poston (top 20) T25 Rory Sabbatini (top 20) MC Brendan Steele (top 20) MC Vince Whaley (top 20) T40 GOLFBET Bet, Result Hayden Buckley – Top 30 (+310) MC BIRTHDAYS AMONG ACTIVE MEMBERS OF THE PGA TOUR January 25 … Andrew Putnam (33) January 26 … Adam Schenk (30); Nick Hardy (26) January 27 … Jonathan Byrd (44) January 28 … none January 29 … none January 30 … none January 31 … none

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Short of winning any tournament, it’s arguable that emerging as one of the 30 at East Lake in Atlanta is the hardest objective on the PGA TOUR. Of the 35 unique winners this season, 15 didn’t advance to the finale of the FedExCup Playoffs. Identifying the most confident golfers at the TOUR Championship isn’t too hard. Just read the field. Reaching the summit is one reason why each qualifier is treated to exemptions into the first three majors of 2018 as well as spots in the first two World Golf Championships. It’s nothing short of a life-changing achievement for the eight first-timers in the field. The other lane of confidence isn’t as smooth and fluid, but it matters more when making decisions for your fantasy lineups. This is where you determine who deserves the attention and your faith as a fit at East Lake. Billy Horschel caught such a blazing heater in 2014 that a kneejerk reaction would be to ignore how he prevailed by three strokes in the TOUR Championship. However, upon closer inspection, his formula for success was no more out of the ordinary than the two champions since. Horschel, Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy showcased the complete game en route to their titles. All four identifiers below align with what worked for them and what projects to work for this week’s champion. East Lake’s putting surfaces average 6,200 square feet and could touch 12-and-a-half feet on the Stimpmeter, but they are not dastardly, devilish or diabolical. From just about every metric, they’re easier on average to solve and they are fair. With that accepted component factored in, we can widen our focus to use bogey avoidance as the catchall for short game and putting. In a nutshell, that explains why East Lake is a ball-striker’s paradise. Something to keep in mind as your watch, listen to and/or read about the tournament, since Tiger Woods won the FedExCup without winning the TOUR Championship in 2009, which was the inaugural year of the first iteration of the current points structure, every champion at East Lake also captured the FedExCup. NOTE: Golfers inside the top 20 in each statistic in the FedExCup Playoffs are listed only if they are scheduled to compete in the TOUR Championship. * – Finished inside the top 10 at the TOUR Championship in 2014, 2015 and/or 2016. Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee 1  *Dustin Johnson 2  Jon Rahm 3  *Rickie Fowler 4  *Jordan Spieth 5  Brooks Koepka 6  Xander Schauffele T7  *Kevin Chappell T7  Charley Hoffman 9  Tony Finau 11  Jhonattan Vegas 12  *Paul Casey 15  *Justin Rose 16  *Justin Thomas 18  Patrick Cantlay Greens in Regulation T2  Patrick Cantlay T2  *Jordan Spieth 4  *Gary Woodland 5  Marc Leishman 7  *Justin Rose 8  Jon Rahm T9  *Sergio Garcia T9  *Dustin Johnson 13  *Rickie Fowler T16  *Matt Kuchar 19  *Paul Casey T20  Pat Perez T20  Kyle Stanley Proximity to the Hole 1  *Dustin Johnson 4  *Justin Rose T6  *Jason Day 10  *Jordan Spieth T11  Russell Henley T13  Daniel Berger 16  Jon Rahm 19  Brian Harman Bogey Avoidance 1  Patrick Cantlay 2  *Jordan Spieth 3  *Justin Rose T4  Pat Perez T4  Jon Rahm 6  *Dustin Johnson T8  *Justin Thomas 10  Marc Leishman T11 *Rickie Fowler T13  *Sergio Garcia T15  Daniel Berger T15  *Paul Casey T15  Webb Simpson T19  *Jason Day With only 30 in the field, the usual groupings below are sparsely populated, but half of the field is still represented. Jordan Spieth (2015) is the only prior winner of the TOUR Championship back this week. NOTE: The groups below are comprehensive to assist in data mining. Inclusion doesn’t imply automatic endorsement in every fantasy game as all decisions are specific to your situation. CONFIDENCE MEN Selected golfers with multiple cuts made sorted by rank on the tournament’s money list. BUILDING CONFIDENCE Sorted by best finish, selected golfers who are either finally finding form on the course or are still relatively new to the tournament but have enjoyed some success. OTHER SIGNS OF CONFIDENCE Sorted by most recent top 10s, selected golfers for whom it’s been a few years since their last.

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