Win probabilities: Fortinet Championship

Emergency 9 Here are nine tidbits from the third round of the Fort Worth Invitational that gamers can use tomorrow, this weekend or down the road. Colonial Country Club is the longest-serving host on TOUR (1946) and plays 7,209 yards to a Par-70. Pain or Gain These were the top-10 picked golfers in the PGA TOUR Fantasy One & Done presented by SERVPRO: The hot temperatures led to the lowest scoring-round total for the week and those with the earlier tee times took advantage. Looking at the table above, only Koepka and Rahm improved on their positions from Round 2, with Rahm making the biggest jump. With a very similar forecast on the cards tomorrow, I’d expect similar scoring conditions but it might not matter as well as Justin Rose is playing. Four Shots Clear The only blemish on the Round 3 scorecard for 36-hole leader Justin Rose was a square on No. 16 that trimmed his five-shot lead down to four. Koepka will join Rose in the final pairing tomorrow and we’ll see if he can put any pressure on the world’s No. 5 player. Rose continued his stellar play as he only squared one bogey for the third consecutive round as he posted 14-under-par 196. He doesn’t have any “others” on his card either. The last Sunday round he signed for was 66 at THE PLAYERS. One more of those and he’ll win comfortably. His last TOUR win saw another premium player blow a large lead. Dustin Johnson led by six heading into the final round at the World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions but Rose fired 67 in that final round to post his only win of this season. Separated After toasting TPC Sawgrass for 63 on Sunday two weeks ago, Brooks Koepka signaled he was ready for action. After his 63 in Round 2 this week, any doubts should be thrown out the window. He trails by four and has had to sign for two double bogeys this week. He’s made as many birdies as Rose (T2 for the week) but he knows he’ll have to make plenty more tomorrow. This should be a great duel in the Texas sun. Gree-LOW It says it right there in the pronunciation of Emiliano Grillo’s name: Low. Maybe GO LOW tomorROW? He had a chance in the final group in Round 3 to put pressure on the classy Englishman as he began play one back. He lost the two-ball by three shots and now is tied with Koepka for second. He’ll have a different partner for the final round as Corey Conners, the Canadian rookie who fired the co-low round of the day (63), will be riding shotgun. His lowest final round this season was 66 on Sunday at The Honda Classic. Uno Mas Jon Rahm reintroduced himself to the chase after 64 in Round 3 but sits six shots adrift heading into Sunday (T4). His final round 66 in his debut last year saw him claim T2 but I’ll be interested to see if he pins his ears back and tries to chase Rose down. His final round scoring average is 71.44 so it’s going to take something from the top drawer but I believe he has that extra gear. Nothing to Lose J.T. Poston has quietly rattled off eight consecutive rounds in the 60’s over his last three events and his bogey-free 65 has him in the four-way logjam for T4. His only top 10 in 13 previous start was T4 after a final round 66 in Las Vegas last fall. Sitting at No. 113 in the FEC standings, a top 10 would be a very nice bump on Sunday. Moving Day Nobody falls in and out of love quicker than I do with Louis Oosthuizen and I’m paying the price this week. His 64 vaulted him 30 spots up the board to T4 after 71 in Round 2. He’s T4 in scrambling for the week and will probably need to make at least seven more birdies Sunday to get into the mix. … Ted Potter, Jr., shared the low round of the day honors with Conners as his 63 saw him make up the biggest ground. Potter began the round T51 but after signing for seven birdies without a bogey or worse he found himself T9 at the end of play. The AT&T Pebble Beach champion has now rattled off four paydays in a row on TOUR. Moving Day: Wrong Way Bryson DeChambeau started T6, birdied his first two holes and looked to be on his way to chasing down the leaders. His final 16 holes were played in 3 over and didn’t include a par-breaker. He dropped 25 spots to T31 and will need something lower than 65 to crack the top 10. … Jordan Spieth is still trying to get out of third gear this season. On a day where plenty of low scores were to be had, the 2016 champ and podium regular at this event was stuck in reverse. Beginning the day T23, a low one could have stuck him in the rear-view mirror of the leaders but a level-par round of 70 saw him drop to T38, 11 shots back. Study Hall The easiest scoring conditions of the week were in Round 3 as the field averaged 68.462 (-1.538), easily surpassing the 69.760 from Round 1. … I’ve been tracking Strokes Gained: Putting numbers all week for the top five or so after each round. The top eight players after Saturday consist of two players in the top 20 in this category, Grillo (2nd) and Koepka (11th). There were six bogey-free rounds in Round 3 and all players posted 66 or lower… Brian Harman leads the field with 18 birdies and has snuck into the top 10 (T9) entering Sunday. … Gamers with an eye on the future will notice Rory McIlroy and Francesco Molinari will be the final pairing at Wentworth tomorrow for the BMW PGA Championship on the European Tour.

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Jim Williams won an auction to benefit the Tiger Wood Foundation and then paid his way to the Bahamas to caddie for a day during the pro-am for the Hero World Challenge.

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South Africa’s Justin Walters enjoyed a strong start to the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship on Thursday, finishing nine-under par at The Old Course.

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