Win probabilities: Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Here are nine tidbits from the first round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard that gamers can use tomorrow, this weekend or down the road. The Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida, plays 7,419 yards (par 72). Pain or gain These were the top five picked golfers in the PGA TOUR Fantasy One & Done presented by SERVPRO: The eight-time winner was the main choice this week to the surprise of absolutely no one. All five on this list made the cut and they are all within five shots of each other heading to the weekend. People’s Choice: Tiger Woods There’s an old saying that you can’t win the tournament on the first day but you can lose it. Forgive me if I push this to include the second round as well. Woods didn’t have his best stuff on Friday but his even-par round of 72 didn’t turn into a blow-up round and MC. He held it together around the greens, saved some fantastic pars and will play the weekend seven shots off the lead. On a course where he’s dominated over the years, there’s no chance I’m writing him off. He’ll need a round in the mid-60s tomorrow to give his O&D investors hope. Moving Day Thoughts After the conclusion of play on Friday there are only five players within four shots of the lead shared by Henrik Stenson and Bryson DeChambeau, who both posted 11-under-par 133. It’s been no secret that the mornings have been chilly for the first two rounds but that’s changing on Saturday. I’d expect some hotter starts as guys will have feeling in the fingers and toes as temperatures will be much warmer for the earlier tee times. It’s interesting to see that the strongest wind will be later in the afternoon so I’d expect some low ones in the early wave. Morning Show Those of you who did your homework this week will know two things about 36-hole co-leader Bryson DeChambeau. His WD last week after an opening-round 76 chased me away but maybe I should have stuck around. In 2016, as an amateur, he was paired with Rory McIlroy on Sunday and lost by a shot. McIlroy shot 65 and they both finished T27. DeChambeau has played six rounds at this event is 17-under-par. #Noted. … Rookie Talor Gooch backed up his opening-round 65 on Thursday afternoon with a 70 on Friday morning and is alone in third. This makes perfect sense as he entered the week on back-to-back MCs in the last two Florida events. He has three top-25 finishes on the season with T16 at Sony Open in Hawaii the best. Afternoon Edition South Korean Byeong-Hun An posted his second consecutive 68 and sits alone in fourth. He set gamers up last week at Valspar after closing 69-65 at The Honda Classic (T5). The response was 73-73 and MC and plenty of groaning for those who were on board. He has more rounds above par than below par in Orlando but his metrics are strong across the board after two rounds. … Patrick Reed hasn’t been deterred by his “comebacker” on the final green last week at Valspar as he sits T6 after 68-70. He’s made two doubles but leads the field in putts per GIR and T2 in birdies. I hope the Houston resident doesn’t have one eye on WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play or Houston Open just yet. 3 up Big hitter Luke List continues his excellent form. His bogey-free 67 in the morning wave moved him up 26 spots to T6 and five shots of the lead. His worst payday in his last five events is T26. … Gamers (see: Glass) were SEETHING this afternoon as they noticed Ryan Moore ascending the leaderboard. THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN LAST WEEK on a course he had previous successes, not at Bay Hill where his best finish is T34 in the last four years. His best weekend round in those four years is 73. Caution. … Charley Hoffman posted the round of the afternoon wave with a bogey-free 66 to jump up 27 spots into fifth place. The 54-hole co-leader from last year also shot 66 in Round 2 last year. He’s just four shots back but his four trips before last year included three MCs and T59. 3 down While Gooch was firing 70 after his 65 on Friday, Aaron Wise had a rougher ride following his 65. His 76 included six bogeys and a double plus an eagle and two birdies. Bay Hill is usually tough on young kids that don’t have the chops but I think he bounces back tomorrow because he’s not in that group. … The biggest surprise of the day might have been Brian Harman shooting 75 after his opening-round 68. The man who leads the TOUR in top-10 finishes gave up 31 spots on the leaderboard. He’ll need a couple really good ones on the weekend to add to that total. … Did the jet lag finally catch up to Emiliano Grillo? His opening-round 69 was followed by 75 to drop him 40 spots to T53. Last week he was in the hunt in the Hero Indian Open (6th) in New Delhi, half a world away. He’s rattled off 13 consecutive cuts worldwide. MC HOF World No. 29 Louis Oosthuizen (76-74) continues to frustrate gamers but he’s been doing this since he won the 2010 Open Championship. … World No. 31 Kiradech Aphibarnrat played this event twice before and cashed T6 each time. This week he’s out early (73-74) as the cut was 1-over-par. World No. 33 Matthew Fitzpatrick made three doubles on Thursday and dug a hole too deep (76-71). … I’m officially concerned about World No. 36 Kevin Kisner. He had the 54-hole co-lead here last year but that couldn’t spark him. He’s now MC in his last three events where there was a 36-hole cut and two of those are on his beloved Bermuda. Study Hall Friday’s scoring average of 72.059 was barley better than Thursday’s 72.20. … Along with Stenson, List and Hoffman, J.B. Holmes also posted a bogey-free round. Holmes has now made the cut here in nine of his last 10. … Billy Horschel has only made one bogey on the week and sits T6. This is his first weekend in five starts. … Danny Willett opened with even-par 72 but WD after four holes on Friday. He said on Twitter that his game is good but he needs to get his body to 100 percent.   Tweet of the Day

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BROOKLINE, Mass. – Get ready for bonus golf this week at the U.S. Open. History says a playoff at The Country Club will be needed to decide the champion. RELATED: Power Rankings | Nine Things to Know: The Country Club | Five Cinderellas to watch Playoffs were necessary to crown a winner in the three previous U.S. Opens at the celebrated venue just outside Boston, and taking things a step further, playoffs have been needed to decide the last six US Opens played in the state of Massachusetts. So, despite the fact it’s been a record 14 years since Tiger Woods outlasted Rocco Mediate in extra holes at Torrey Pines in the 2008 U.S. Open, history suggests 72 holes won’t be enough to get a winner this week. Francis Ouimet famously won the 1913 U.S. Open at Brookline with an 18-hole playoff win over Harry Vardon and Ted Ray and it was another three-man battle to get a winner in 1963 when Julius Boros took down Arnold Palmer and Jacky Cupit. And Curtis Strange beat Nick Faldo over 18 holes in a playoff in the most recent U.S. Open at The Country Club, in 1988. The Boston area also saw Fred McLeod win over Willie Smith in 1908 at Myopia Hunt Club and Walter Hagen defeated Mike Brady in 1919 at Brae Burn Country Club over 18 extra holes. Willie Macfarlane took down Bobby Jones in 1925 in a 36-hole playoff after they tied again in the first 18-holes at Worcester Country Club, as well. Woods’ win over Mediate took 19 extra holes but since then the United States Golf Association’s premier event has moved to a two-hole aggregate playoff format. They just haven’t had to use it yet. Despite the weight of history BetMGM Sportsbook are offering odds of +350 for Brookline to keep its 100% playoff record intact. And if you think the record gap for U.S. Opens without the extra holes will stretch to 14 years, they’re offering -500. Any playoff in 2022 would be played on the 17th and 18th holes, and if still tied after two holes the players would continue that loop in a sudden death mode. Here’s a closer look at the three previous playoffs at The Country Club. 1913: A WIN FOR THE LOCAL LAD This U.S. Open was so good Hollywood made a movie about it called “The Greatest Game Ever Played” where a young Shia LeBeouf plays the Ouimet role beautifully. Ouimet, a 20-year-old amateur and former caddie at Brookline who lived across the road from this week’s 17th hole, was not expected to factor as anything but a local prospect for fans to cheer for. But with his 10-year-old caddie Eddie Lowery by his side, the pair forced their way to the top of the leaderboard against the British superstar duo of Harry Vardon and Ted Ray. A 71st hole birdie proved extremely pivotal. Faced with the task of keeping the trophy in American hands (Scottish or British golfers won the first 16 U.S. Opens before John McDermott became the first American to win in 1911 and 1912) Ouimet was brilliant in the 18-hole playoff on his way to a 72 that bested Vardon’s 77 and Ray’s 78. The trio were all tied through the opening nine holes with Vardon establishing a one-shot lead early on but giving it back before the turn. As the pressure ratcheted up on the back nine, Ouimet was steadfast with seven straight pars leaving him one ahead of Vardon with two to play. His lead was three when he birdied the hole and Vardon bogeyed before closing it out on 18. “I frankly admit that my victory was probably more surprising to me than to any person at The Country Club,” Ouimet said. 1963: BOROS BEATS FATHER TIME The U.S. Open returned to The Country Club to celebrate the 50th anniversary of Ouimet’s famous win and it was New England’s Julius Boros who gave the locals something to cheer about this time around. At 43, Boros become the second-oldest U.S. Open winner ever at the time when his 1-under 70 beat Jacky Cupit’s 73 and Arnold Palmer’s laboring 76 in an 18-hole playoff after the trio all finished at 9 over in regulation. Boros needed two birdies in his final three holes during the final round to tie Palmer at the top while Cupit was left to lament a 71st hole double-bogey and a missed 12-foot putt on the 72nd hole that would have claimed the win. In the playoff, Cupit led by one after just two holes before Boros took control. Three front nine birdies helped him to a three-shot lead over Palmer and a four-shot cushion over Cupit at the turn. He was five clear after 12 holes and despite doubling the 13th, he cruised to his second U.S. Open title. 1988: STRANGE REIGNS SUPREME Curtis Strange persevered to claim the first of his back-to-back U.S. Open titles after a wild final round finish left him tied with Nick Faldo at The Country Club. The 54-hole leader infamously three-putted the 71st green to lose his one-shot advantage over Faldo during the final round and then found a greenside bunker on his approach to the 18th, much to the chagrin of the partisan American crowd. Seemingly in the midst of throwing the championship away Strange produced a clutch up and down for par to ensure England’s Faldo would have to return for an 18-hole Monday playoff. The American would never trail in the playoff, setting up a one-shot lead at the turn, before prevailing with an even-par 71 against Faldo’s 4-over 75. While Strange was steadfast down the stretch, Faldo bogeyed three of his last four to surrender his hopes. “This is for my dad. … I’ve been waiting a long time to do this. … This is the greatest feeling I’ve ever had,” Strange, who lost his golf professional father at just 14, emotionally said. “Sometimes dreams don’t come true. Ninety-nine percent of the time they don’t. My dream has come true.”

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Instead of chasing his third consecutive win at the Valspar Championship this week, two-time defending champ Paul Casey is still trying to sort things out — just like the rest of us in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. On a Friday conference call with golf writers, Casey was asked a variety of questions, including his thoughts on a potential compact major schedule once play resumes (“I’m fine with that. I’ll suck it upâ€�) and the potential of playing without fans (“If that’s what needed … at least we’re still out there playingâ€�). Here are his extended answers on the disappointment of not being able to defend this week, the new normal that we’re living in, concern for his parents, and the importance of golf in the current climate. ‘Guess I’ll still be going for three in a row’ Less than two weeks ago, Casey was preparing for THE PLAYERS Championship, to be followed by the Valspar Championship. The things changed quickly. “We went from probably a space of 48 hours from being slightly concerned to suddenly canceling events after the NBA [suspended] their season. Obviously, it’s disappointing not to defend at Valspar and now suddenly the situation is no longer about golf. It’s a whole plethora of things now. It’s worrying about people’s safety, people’s health, the economic impact of that. Look at somebody at Tampa, there’s probably going to be people who probably get sick, lose jobs, loss of income, a whole bunch of other things. It’s weird one. It’s a really strange one. It’s a strange thing … “Hopefully the impact of not having this year, the 2020 Valspar Championship, doesn’t affect too many people. There will still be money going to charity, which is an amazing thing, that [tournament director] Tracy West and her team can still donate some … “I guess I’ll still be going for three in a row [next year]. Hopefully we can get the field that we were looking at getting this week, which would have been maybe one of the best field they’ve ever had. Everybody will just want us to get back going again. We obviously don’t know how long this is going to be, but people are going to be craving golf and I know I’ll be craving golf and I’ll be looking forward to getting back out there. Hopefully when whenever it happens, the  2021 Valspar Championship will be as good if not better than it was going to be this year.â€� ‘Trying to figure out what to do’ Casey was asked how he’s passed the time in the last week without a tournament to play and defend. “I just did a podcast with Colt Knost and Drew Stoltz, so it should probably take another week before they edit that and get it out. I’ve been playing football — or soccer as you’d call it — with my little boy outside a lot, riding my bike. My clubs are still packed up in my Club Glove in the garage; I haven’t dusted them off yet … “Whisper Rock’s still open, but I can’t go down to Papago and practice where the Arizona State team practices because I’m not allowed down there because they’ve closed the facility to all non-students, which is understandable [Casey played collegiately at Arizona State]. One of the golf clubs I’m a member at in the Valley has had a member and his wife test positive for coronavirus, so very limited access down there. “So I don’t know. I’m trying to formulate a plan. Right now it’s teaching the kids. It’s wake up and we have a schedule of breakfast time and then reading time and then creative time and TV time and all that kind of stuff, so that’s basically what I’m doing. I’m trying to figure out what to do. This is unfamiliar, this is unlike anything. I’m a big fan of time off, and you’ve talked to me in the past. There’s been times I’ve taken 3-4 weeks without hitting golf balls and it’s quite common for me in the offseason, but there’s always been a prospect of going back to work. So I’m trying to balance it out, pacing myself because that’s really the unknown.â€� ‘Technically, can I get there?’ Although he lives in Arizona, Casey has family in his native England but suspects he won’t be able to see them for quite some time. “My parents were in South Africa until about two days ago, they were just down on holiday. You know my dad is South African; they were down there visiting friends and family and it was very strange because just a few days ago, things obviously multiplied drastically rapidly. “My brother who’s in New York, we were messaging backward and forward thinking mom and dad need to get out of South Africa. I mean not that anywhere is particularly safe, but they’d rather surely be at home, so the last few days were a bit strange, making sure they get back safely, making sure they weren’t stuck, what happens if suddenly UK airspace is closed or something like that? And then when my parents got home, I imagine the fridge would probably be empty and they’re right in … the crosshairs of danger, shall we say. They’re in their 70s. “I don’t know — it’s weird and if something were to happen, technically can I get there?  I can’t, really — which is just the same as everybody else on the planet. I’m no different. My wife, her parents are elderly as well and have underlying health issues, so yeah, the focus is very much been on that. Luckily, they’re back home now. I don’t know if that makes them safer or not but at least they’re back in their own home.â€� ‘A great place to be’ Casey said he has no hesitation in playing golf during the current crisis – as long as the necessary precautions are taken. “I love some of the new rules, the new norm that has been adopted. In fact, I was just talking to Colt Knost earlier on his podcast. He’s all pissed off ‘cause he’s obviously a great putter and now he’s frustrated that the guys are raising the cups up. You know, what passes as a holed putt now? If it just hits the cup, does that mean it just goes in, does that mean you can just hit the cup as hard as you want and it’s a holed putt? He’s all frustrated by that, but I love the fact we can still play this game and we don’t have to get that close to anybody to do it.  “I don’t want to put anybody at risk and assume the golf courses are going to be in their usual manicured state. If people choose not to come to work … so the greens aren’t maybe the same kind of manicured way they normally are, the bunkers aren’t raked — I’m totally fine with that. I don’t really care. I’m accepting to play on any kind of golf course if that’s still cool. “Yeah, I’m not going to handle the flag; I’m not going to pick up my partner’s golf ball. If you’re riding in a cart, separate carts. Or you just walk, just pick up your bag and go. “All the rules of the golf clubs I’m a member at have been relaxed. I’m obviously a member of some nice clubs in the Scottsdale area. There’s no more valet, guys are parking their cars in the car park and changing their shoes and just walking to the first tee. We’ve got no food in the clubhouse; they don’t even want anybody in the clubhouse and that’s totally cool. People are still out there playing. People aren’t getting close to each other. I’m fine with that. I think it’s a great place to be. “In fact, I’ve never seen so many people outside walking. Weather’s great in Arizona right now. They’re hiking, they’re walking on the streets, they’re riding bikes, getting out there and doing stuff, which I think is amazing. And the golf course is the perfect place to do it. So I hope they stay open. I really do. I’d be sad if they closed. As I said, I don’t care what state they’re in – the fairways can be long, the greens can be long, the bunkers can be unraked. I couldn’t care less. I think it’d be a great place just to be out on the golf course, away from people.â€�

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