Win probabilities: BMW Championship

SHEBOYGAN, Wis. – Tiger Woods might be near 1,500 miles away from Whistling Straits while he recovers from leg injuries suffered in a February car accident, but he continues to play an important factor in the U.S. Ryder Cup campaign. RELATED: Day 1 match recaps | DeChambeau hits unbelievable drive Woods – the 2019 U.S. Presidents Cup Captain who would have been either a player or Vice-Captain on Steve Stricker’s team if fit – sent a motivational text to the team on Cup eve and it certainly had the desired effect on Olympic Gold Medalist Xander Schauffele and FedExCup champion Patrick Cantlay. Ryder Cup rookies Cantlay and Schauffele were incredible playing Foursomes together Friday morning, winning the first five holes out of the gate against European veterans Rory McIlroy and Ian Poulter on their way to a 5 and 3 demolition job. It was part of a dominant 3-1 morning session for the U.S. Team who are determined to win the Ryder Cup for just the second time in the last six attempts. “We had a nice message from Tiger last night, and obviously not going to reveal what it said, but Pat and I knew. We referred to it a few times a day, and we knew what we needed to do,” Schauffele said. “We knew he was fist pumping from the couch. Whether he was on crutches or not, he’s as fired up as any back at home. So it’s nice to have his support.” Cantlay revealed he actually visited Woods in the lead up to the competition, fresh of winning the FedExCup, as he looked to garner any advice possible. “(There’s) no better role model and no better leader, and just somebody that you can always learn from. I saw him last week at home, and just picked his brain on Ryder Cup and applied some of that here today,” Cantlay added. While the duo didn’t reveal exactly what Woods had said there was an insinuation the 82-time PGA TOUR winner was reminding the U.S. Team to never let up and to keep the pressure on the Europeans at all times. Having seen Europe come back from deficits before while winning four of the last five contests this U.S. Team is instead trying to begin a dynasty of their own. “It is puzzling how we’ve lost a lot in the handful of years looking back at the past. But that’s the past. We’re here and we’re about the present or hopefully what the future is going to be like,” fellow rookie Collin Morikawa said. With six Ryder Cup rookies, and eight members of the team under 30, it really is a changing of the guard for the U.S. Harris English, Daniel Berger and Scottie Scheffler join Morikawa, Schauffele and Cantlay as first timers but between the six they boast two majors, a FedExCup, an Olympic Gold medal and 22 PGA TOUR wins. Morikawa paired with Dustin Johnson to win 3 and 2 over Paul Casey and Viktor Hovland Friday morning while Berger was also victorious playing with Brooks Koepka in a 2 and 1 win over Lee Westwood and Matt Fitzpatrick. Scheffler and English were making their first starts in the afternoon Four-Ball session.

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If we were to publish a guide to compile the levels of comfort for every host course on the PGA TOUR, Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas, would be a finalist for its cover. There are many ways to define comfort, but all apply at the DEAN & DELUCA Invitational. Whether it’s individual success, total appearances or the time it often requires to find form on the 81-year-old track, comfort exists everywhere you look. Monday’s Power Rankings detailed how age and familiarity have played co-protagonists since Sergio Garcia captured his first PGA TOUR victory here in 2001. Inherently correspondent to that theme, the average number of starts at Colonial before each of the 12 different champions in the last 14 years – Kenny Perry and Zach Johnson have won the tournament twice since 2002 – is 6.25. However, there’s been a gradual reduction in the average since ZJ’s first win here in 2010 as none of the last five unique champions made more than five starts prior to hoisting the hardware. Still, Colonial’s reputation as a comfortable place to unpack one’s bags is alive and well. Thirty-three of the 121 in the field (as of Monday) have made at least seven starts in the tournament. Eighteen have made as many as 10. For this is the leading factor in projecting success at the DEAN & DELUCA Invitational. The course itself renders opportunity for all, evident in just how differently even just the last three champions navigated their paths to paydirt. TALES OF THE TAPE As maddening as it might be to discern any direction from the last three winners, not to mention how weather influences things, rest assured that there are reliable factors to locate value. While proper positioning off the tee never hurts anywhere, if you reviewed how contenders have rated in both distance and accuracy over the years at Colonial, you’d quickly learn that Chris Kirk’s uninspiring splits off the tee tilt toward a majority. In other words, Colonial is much more of a scorer’s paradise than it is the kind of test that’s going to reveal the broadest skill set. The set of identifiers below focuses on frequency and accuracy on approach as well as getting after it on the greens. And because there’s a correlation between recent winners and last year’s noisemakers, odd as it is, par-3 scoring is injected as a potential game-changer. Golfers in this week’s field inside the top 10 in the following categories in last year’s DEAN & DELUCA Invitational: * – Currently inside the top 50 on the PGA TOUR in the stat. (Golfers who haven’t logged enough rounds are not tagged.) Greens in Regulation Rank Golfer (Tournament Finish) 1 Kyle Reifers (5th) 2 Ricky Barnes (T42) T3 Jason Dufner (T6) T3 Harris English (2nd) T3 Ryan Palmer (T3) T3 Brandt Snedeker (T17) T9 Martin Piller (T6) Proximity to the Hole Rank Golfer (Tournament Finish) 1 Kyle Reifers (5th) 2 Ryan Palmer (T3) 3 *Jason Dufner (T6) 4 Brandt Snedeker (T17) 5 *Webb Simpson (T3) 7 *David Hearn (T17) 8 Harris English (2nd) 10 Anirban Lahiri (T6) Strokes Gained: Putting Rank Golfer (Tournament Finish) 1 Chris Stroud (T13) 2 Jordan Spieth (Win) 3 *Harris English (2nd) 4 Anirban Lahiri (T6) 5 Matt Kuchar (T6) 6 Kevin Kisner (T10) 8 *Seung-Yul Noh (T42) 9 Chad Campbell (T10) Putting: Birdie-or-Better Percentage Rank Golfer (Tournament Finish) 1 *Anirban Lahiri (T6) 2 Harris English (2nd) 3 Jason Bohn (T34) 4 Webb Simpson (T3) 5 *Jordan Spieth (Win) 7 Chad Campbell (T10) T8 Ryan Palmer (T3) T8 Martin Piller (T6) Par-3 Scoring Rank Golfer (Tournament Finish) T2 Tim Herron (T29) T2 Kevin Kisner (T10) T2 Matt Kuchar (T6) T2 *Johnson Wagner (T34) T6 Jason Dufner (T6) T6 Charley Hoffman (T42) T6 Zach Johnson (T17) T6 *Seung-Yul Noh (T42) T6 *Jordan Spieth (Win) T6 *Chris Stroud (T13) T6 Nick Taylor (T47) Relative to this space every week are how the three classifications below are populated. Each is at the mercy of sliding scales based on depth of field, individual records and other factors that include recency of success and current positioning on one career bell curve. Take these into account if you’re ever curious as to why a golfer slots in a grouping you wouldn’t expect. In addition, the only prerequisite for inclusion below is that any golfer must have recorded at least one top 10 on the host course of a given tournament. This explains why contemporary hopefuls like Marc Leishman (6-for-6 with no better than a T13 in 2016), David Hearn (5-for-6 with three top 25s but no better than a T13 in 2012) and Graham DeLaet (4-for-5 with no better than a T14 in 2014) are omitted. NOTE: The groups below are comprehensive to assist in data mining. Inclusion doesn’t imply endorsement in any fantasy game. HORSES FOR COURSES Selected golfers with multiple cuts made sorted by rank on the tournament’s money list. GETTING COMFY Sorted by best finish, selected golfers who are either finally finding form on the course or are still relatively new to the tournament but have enjoyed some success. OTHER SIGNS OF COMFORT Sorted by most recent top 10s, selected golfers for whom it’s been a few years since their last.

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