Win probabilities: AT&T Byron Nelson

SAN DIEGO – Tiger Woods WILL break the record of 82 PGA TOUR wins he holds with Sam Snead. It is not if, but when. That is a fact I am willing to put out there. It is an assumption for sure – and when you assume you often find it can make an “assâ€� out of “uâ€� and “meâ€� – but it is one we are going to run with anyway. Woods hits the Farmers Insurance Open this week for his first start in 2020, coming off a win at The ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP in Japan last October. While he has since played in his own Hero World Challenge (4th) and was part of the victorious U.S. Presidents Cup team as a playing captain in December, his trip to Torrey Pines represents his first chance to claim the all-time win record alone. When he played in Japan, Woods was given very little chance of winning in the lead up. Despite his incredible win at the Masters last April to get to 81, he was coming off knee surgery and had not really contended since Augusta. But Woods proved you can never count out a champion and earned No. 82 to join Snead at the top in impressive fashion. So now the question becomes: When will 83 happen? Woods himself says it is not a focus. “I really don’t think about it because I have to think about all the things I need to do to win the golf tournament,â€� Woods said. “There’s so many different shots I have to play and strategy and thinking my way around the golf course that I’m more consumed with.â€� Related: Preview: Tiger at Torrey Pines | Inside Tiger’s stunning loss at Torrey Pines in 1992 | Tiger eying No. 83 But expectations – as always – are high. Some of us are anticipating it as soon as a few days from now. Torrey Pines is, of course, the place Woods has eight career wins from seven Farmers Insurance Open titles and the 2008 U.S. Open. Others expect it could come later. A quick anonymous survey across the players at Torrey Pines gave us a multitude of answers, but ALL said it would happen this season. One multiple-time TOUR winner said, “it is likely wherever he tees it up. He’s always a chance.â€� Another believes if he plays at the World Golf Championships – Mexico Championship, he will find his way to victory there. “He is the game’s greatest thinker. So he can figure out the altitude and plot his way around. If he chooses to play there, by then he will be well warmed in to 2020.â€� What about THE PLAYERS Championship for a third time? “TPC Sawgrass for a third time, the home of the TOUR… I think that would be almost a Hollywood script for the people who run the TOUR,â€� a third player posed. Another thinks Woods might do an incredible double by winning the World Golf Championships – Dell Technologies Match Play before defending at Augusta National. “One on one, he can kill anyone if he wants to. And no one knows Augusta better.â€� Those who read our Expert Picks each week for fantasy golf already know I have slated Woods to win here at Torrey Pines. But here is a look at where some leading golf pundits believe Woods’ record-breaking moment will happen. Nick Faldo (Six-time major winner and CBS analyst) – the Masters “His last three victories were on golf courses when he has got minimal rough and pine trees left and right. So we have got to give him another shot of going back to Augusta (and winning), but I don’t know how he can recreate the emotion again of what it meant to win his 15th with his children there and coming back after 11 years.â€� Mike McAllister (Managing Editor, PGATOUR.COM) – Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. “Of all the courses he’ll play in 2020, Bay Hill has given him the most success with eight wins. I think he has a ninth win in him, and the schedule sets up well for it to be No. 83. It would be extra-special to set the new record at Arnie’s place.â€� Bob Harig (ESPN) – the Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide “As great of a story as it would be for Tiger to break that record at his own tournament, the Genesis Invitational at Riviera, it just seems too soon. There’s a transition period he will again go through this spring to build his game back to the level it was at the end of 2019, and while it’s more than likely he will contend several times, it would be more than fitting for him to do it at the Memorial, Jack Nicklaus’ annual tournament where victory No. 73 came in 2012. He’s won five times at Muirfield Village, so a sixth makes plenty of sense.â€� Jim Nantz (CBS) – The Genesis Invitational “The hardest thing in the world to do in sport in terms of trying to predict who’s going to win is trying to forecast a golf champion. Although Tiger in his prime was always the surest bet he could ever come up with. I’m always looking for context and he is signed up to play The Genesis Invitational at Riviera, where of course his foundation is tied to the running and the management of the event. Yes, he’s never won at Riviera, but I think that would be the coolest story … if he won at the site where he first competed as a 16-year-old high school kid in 1992.â€� Daniel Rapaport (Golf Digest) – Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard “I’ll say Bay Hill. Torrey hasn’t been too kind to him in recent years, and we know his history at Riviera. Mexico is definitely a possibility, but I think he gets it done in his home state at a course he’s dominated.â€� Geoff Shackleford – Genesis Invitational. In a cinematic, storybook career, only two options exist: this week at Torrey Pines and at Riviera where Tiger made his national debut. Torrey opens the debate up 1 after nine on the back of Junior Worlds, the sight of his one-legged U.S. Open win and in front of his adopted son fans. But Riviera? Where he’s never won, where it all started in earnest and now where he is the host? Easy 5&4 win for the 2020 Genesis as the place the Golf Gods will make it happen. Cameron Morfit . – Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. “Although I put him on my fantasy team, I hesitate to say Tiger will pick up No. 83 at the Farmers. The South Course is 7,765 yards, which means it got even longer after already ranking the longest course on the PGA TOUR last season. Also, he’s just getting going in 2020, and I’d like to give him at least a start or two to play his way into form. I’ll say he gets it done at Bay Hill.â€� Steve DiMeglio (USA TODAY) – The Genesis Invitational “Talk about storybook? Tiger Woods will win No. 83 at his own tournament, The Genesis Invitational, on a golf course that has gotten the better of him his entire playing career. Yep, Tiger is going to finally conquer Riviera Country Club, where he played his first PGA TOUR event as a 16-year-old amateur, and in the process, among all the duties he has as tournament host, pass Sam Snead.â€� Sean Martin . – Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. “I see it coming at Bay Hill. Long irons are key there and that’s what he does best.â€� Evin Priest (Australian Associated Press) – Farmers Insurance Open “I really believe it’s going to be this week at Torrey Pines. I watched him test TaylorMade’s new SIM driver on the range and he didn’t miss a tee shot for 30 straight minutes. Every trajectory and every shot shape. It was a masterclass. Combine that with his win at the ZOZO and his performance at the Presidents Cup, and all signs point to him getting a ninth win at Torrey.â€� Helen Ross . – Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. “OK, I know I’m not exactly going out on a limb here given his eight victories at Bay Hill. But he’s rarely out of contention here and — with THE PLAYERS on the horizon — Tiger always seems to be hitting on all cylinders during this stretch.â€� Only time will tell where it will actually come but one thing is for sure: It is going to be fun to watch it all unfold.

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ST. ANDREWS, Scotland – Rory McIlroy let himself dream. He couldn’t help it. The enormous yellow scoreboard that stood stories above St. Andrews’ final hole stared back at him whenever he looked out the window of his hotel room. He imagined his name in the black, block letters standing atop the list, the same image he surely thought about countless times as a kid. The dream came true a day early. His name occupied the top space Saturday night, after a 66 that put him into a tie for The Open’s lead with Viktor Hovland. McIlroy spoke that evening about his “cocoon,” the place where he could divorce his process from the pressure. But each time he peered out his hotel-room window, he allowed himself to imagine what could have been the most important victory of his career. “You’ve got to let yourself dream,” McIlroy said. “You’ve got to let yourself think about it and what it would be like, but once I was on the golf course it was just task at hand and trying to play the best golf I possibly could.” Only Hovland was McIlroy’s equal over the first 54 holes of The 150th Open. They both shot 16-under 200, including matching 66s in Saturday’s second-to-last group to earn Sunday’s last tee time. They were four clear of the players in third place, Cameron Smith and Cameron Young. McIlroy wasn’t the only one dreaming of him winning in the Home of Golf. A win by Great Britain’s great hope in the game’s spiritual center made too much sense. It had been 12 years since he last played an Open at the Old Course, and eight years since his last major win. The greatest player of his generation, and one of the greatest Europeans of all time, McIlroy had endured close calls in majors earlier this year, finishing in the top 10 in each of the first three. Then on Friday, as he was starting his second round, he crossed paths with Tiger Woods as Woods’ career at St. Andrews likely came to a close. Woods was touched by McIlroy tipping his cap in respect as they walked past each other. Woods’ last Open at St. Andrews, where he won twice, could have concluded with the first win at St. Andrews for the best player since Woods. McIlroy was trying to join Woods, Jack Nicklaus and Europe’s two best of the modern era, Nick Faldo and Seve Ballesteros, by winning at the Old Course, a setting that carries extra significance. A win would have tied Ballesteros with five major triumphs and leave him one short of Faldo’s record for most majors by a European player since World War I. McIlroy is the player in today’s game who gives the most consideration to context. His legacy is his priority at this point in his career, and only a victory at Augusta National would do more for it. Like Jordan Spieth seven years earlier, the sentimental favorite didn’t win at St. Andrews, however. McIlroy was bogey-free Sunday but made just two birdies. His 70 left him in third place, two strokes behind winner Cameron Smith. Smith birdied the first five holes of the back nine and closed with 30 en route to a Sunday 64. TOUR rookie Cameron Young, who played with Smith in the second-to-last group, shot 65 to finish second. McIlroy led most of the day but fell behind after Smith birdied 14. McIlroy could only muster pars on the final holes, however. “I knew that I needed to respond,” McIlroy said. “I just couldn’t find the shots or the putts to do that.” It was a day that was relatively stress-free. He drove it well and didn’t make a bogey, but also couldn’t hit his approach shots close enough or take advantage of the Old Course’s drivable par-4s. This the first time in his career that McIlroy has finished in the top 10 in all four majors. He’s third in the world ranking and fifth in the FedExCup with two wins this season. He spoke this week about the trust he has in his game, and the freedom it has produced. He reunited with longtime swing coach Michael Bannon and won last month’s RBC Canadian Open while his caddie, Harry Diamond, was home with his wife and newborn child. It required him to make more decisions on the course and rely less on his longtime looper. “I’m in more control of my swing and my game,” he said. He left last month’s U.S Open saying he was “closer than I’ve been in a while.” But on Sunday, McIlroy struggled to trust his reads on St. Andrews’ slow greens and watched several birdie putts slide by the hole. While Smith was in the midst of his birdie streak, McIlroy couldn’t capitalize on two of St. Andrews’ drivable par-4s, Nos. 9 and 12, and parred the par-5 14th when a birdie would have pulled him even with Smith. McIlroy missed long birdie putts on 15 and 16, as well, and a 20-footer on the difficult 17th after Smith had two-putted from behind the Road Bunker. Smith’s birdie on the final hole meant McIlroy needed to make eagle on 18. It was over when his second shot ran past the hole. “There were a lot of putts today where I couldn’t just trust myself to start it inside the hole,” he said. “I was always starting it on the edge or just outside thinking it was going to move. More times than not, they just sort of stayed there.” McIlroy focused on the positives in his post-round press conference and tried to place the result in its proper perspective – “It’s not life or death,” he said – but the scene after he stepped away from the microphone painted a fuller picture. A golf cart waited to whisk McIlroy to the locker room. He sat down next to his wife, Erica, and rested his head face-down on her shoulder. He had no more energy to expend. The fight was over. The Old Course is a romantic setting for those with a deep connection to the game. A round on the historic grounds elicits a variety of emotions. Including heartbreak.

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• As part of Strategic Alliance, Genesis Scottish Open, Barbasol Championship and Barracuda Championship will be included in both FedExCup and Race to Dubai, while Irish Open will see a significant increase in prize money. • PGA TOUR’s schedule of 48 events includes the move of the first FedExCup Playoffs event to TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee, sponsored by FedEx. PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Florida, USA, and VIRGINIA WATER, Surrey, England – The PGA TOUR and European Tour today unveiled new details around their Strategic Alliance, with the PGA TOUR also releasing its 2021-22 PGA TOUR Season schedule. The landmark agreement, announced in November 2020, further enhances and connects the ecosystem of men’s professional golf through a number of areas, including global scheduling, prize funds and playing opportunities for the respective memberships. Related: Click here to print the 2021-22 PGA TOUR schedule In terms of scheduling, the most significant piece of collaboration is the fact that three tournaments will be co-sanctioned in 2022 and therefore count on both the PGA TOUR’s FedExCup and the European Tour’s Race to Dubai next season: the Barbasol Championship; the Barracuda Championship; and the Genesis Scottish Open. The latter event also has a new title sponsor in Genesis, the luxury automotive brand from South Korea, who will now title sponsor two tournaments on the PGA TOUR, with the Genesis Scottish Open joining The Genesis Invitational, which Genesis has titled since 2017; The Genesis Invitational will once again be played at The Riviera Country Club next year (February 14-20). The Genesis Scottish Open (July 4-10), which is part of the European Tour’s Rolex Series, retains its place in golf’s global calendar the week ahead of The Open Championship (July 11-17), a date confirmed through to 2025. The player field will be a split between members of both Tours. The tournament will also benefit from the continued commitment of the Scottish Government, managed by Visit Scotland – the agreement also running through 2025. “We are delighted to welcome Genesis as a title sponsor of a European Tour event for the first time,” said European Tour Chief Executive Keith Pelley. “Genesis has a strong history of sponsorship on the PGA TOUR through The Genesis Invitational, and their commitment to the Scottish Open will further enhance one of our premier events of the season. Although it will be on the PGA TOUR’s official schedule for the first time, the Genesis Scottish Open has a rich history on the European Tour, appearing in the Tour’s first two official seasons (1972 and 1973) and as part of the Tour’s International Schedule since 1986. It has also been part of the Rolex Series – the European Tour’s premium series of events – since the Series’ inception in 2017. “Adding an existing, strong title sponsor in Genesis to our Strategic Alliance in the form of the Genesis Scottish Open – to be sanctioned by both Tours – is a significant step for the global game,” said PGA TOUR Commissioner Jay Monahan. “Coupled with their support of The Genesis Invitational at Riviera, we’re incredibly proud to forge a deeper relationship with this premier brand across the global game.” Genesis will take over the title sponsorship of the event from abrdn, who are exploring ways for the decade-long partnership with the European Tour to continue moving forward. The venue for the 2022 Genesis Scottish Open will be confirmed at a later date. “We are extremely excited to become title sponsor of the Scottish Open at this historic moment, as the PGA TOUR and European Tour announce details on their Strategic Alliance,” said Jay Chang, Global head of Genesis. “Genesis and golf share a culture centered on respect, mutual admiration and innovation. We will continue to strengthen our partnership with both Tours to deliver this spirit to golfers, communities and individuals around the world through successful tournaments.” Paul Bush, Director of Events at VisitScotland, said, “We are thrilled the European Tour and PGA TOUR have identified the Genesis Scottish Open to further develop their Strategic Alliance, and there is no more fitting stage than Scotland, the Home of Golf, on which to embark on such a historic journey.” In addition to the Genesis Scottish Open being co-sanctioned, there will also be access for 50 European Tour members to each of two PGA TOUR events in 2022 for the first time – the Barbasol Championship, which will be played concurrently with the Genesis Scottish Open, and the Barracuda Championship, which will be played alongside the following week’s 150th Open Championship at St. Andrews. Both events will be added to the Race to Dubai for European Tour members. It was also confirmed today that as part of the Strategic Alliance and collaboration between the two Tours, the Irish Open will see a significant increase in prize money for its annual European Tour event – to $6 million, starting in 2022 – nearly double the amount on offer at Mount Juliet last month. In addition, the PGA TOUR will continue to work with the European Tour on commercial opportunities for the event. “When we announced the Strategic Alliance at the end of last year, we said it was a landmark moment for global golf’s ecosystem that would benefit all members of both Tours,” said Pelley. “Today’s announcement underlines that promise, with further enhancements to the Genesis Scottish Open, a strengthening of the Irish Open for our members, and direct access for European Tour members to two PGA TOUR events. “There has been considerable collaboration behind the scenes between our two Tours since November’s Alliance was unveiled, and we are delighted to share these initial developments, which demonstrate our commitment to working together for the betterment of our sport globally. We will have more to announce in the coming months – this is most definitely just the beginning.” “With today’s news, I am pleased to say that the PGA TOUR and the European Tour are both stronger than at any time in our history, as we are positioned to grow – together – over the next 10 years faster than we have at any point in our existence,” said Monahan. “We are committed to continuing to evolve and adapt, and with our ever-strengthening partnership with the European Tour, to take the global game to the heights we all know it is capable of.” PGA TOUR Schedule Highlights The 2021-22 PGA TOUR Schedule includes several significant enhancements and features a total of 48 official events – 45 during the FedExCup Regular Season along with three 2022 FedExCup Playoffs events. The 2022 portion of the schedule will kick off the PGA TOUR’s new, nine-year domestic media rights agreements with ViacomCBS, Comcast/NBC and ESPN. As part of the agreement, all three 2022 FedExCup Playoffs events will be broadcast domestically on NBC network television, beginning a rotation that continues with CBS hosting all three events in 2023. Headline news includes the change in location and venue for the kickoff of the FedExCup Playoffs to TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee, starting in 2022, replacing the Regular Season event that has been held in Memphis since 1958. FedEx will serve as the title sponsor of the event, to be known as the FedEx St. Jude Championship (August 8-14), replacing existing title sponsor Northern Trust after this year’s playing of THE NORTHERN TRUST at Liberty National Golf Club in Jersey City, New Jersey. “FedEx is excited that the first event of the 2022 FedExCup Playoffs will be hosted in our hometown of Memphis, Tennessee,” said Raj Subramaniam, President and Chief Operating Officer of FedEx Corporation. “We are proud of our history and the community impact we’ve had since becoming title sponsor of our hometown TOUR stop in 1986. We look forward to the impact it will bring to our local community and will continue to use it as a platform to showcase the groundbreaking work being done by St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital to golf fans around the world.” “Since the inception of the FedExCup in 2007, we have made a number of changes to enhance the quality of the FedExCup Playoffs for our players, fans and partners,” said Monahan. “Thanks to the continued support from FedEx as the TOUR’s umbrella partner, we’re proud to bring the start of the FedExCup to Memphis and a course loved by our players. Not only will it be a great test worthy of Playoff golf, but we also anticipate tremendous enthusiasm from a community that has steadfastly supported the PGA TOUR for more than 60 years. And, of course, the important work of St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital will continue to be front and center. “In totality, the 2021-22 PGA TOUR Schedule, combined with the momentum we have with our now-entrenched partnership with the European Tour, puts the PGA TOUR in a position of strength within professional golf like never before. We’re confident this schedule will give the world’s best players the opportunity to do what they do best – inspire and entertain our fans around the globe while helping our tournaments make a significant impact in their respective communities.” The 2022 FedExCup Playoffs will continue to include the BMW Championship (August 15-21), which rotates next year to Wilmington Country Club in Wilmington, Delaware, and the FedExCup Playoffs finale, the TOUR Championship (August 22-28), once again slated for East Lake Golf Club. The PGA TOUR’s flagship event, THE PLAYERS Championship (March 7-13), will anchor a true Florida Swing in 2022, which features four consecutive events through The Sunshine State in the spring, including the Valspar Championship, which was played in April/May this past year. THE PLAYERS will be in year three of its March date and as a kickoff to the Season of Championships, with Justin Thomas returning as defending champion. The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (May 30-June 5) enters the first year of a 10-year agreement in 2022 with new presenting sponsor, Workday. Founded in 1976 by golf legend Jack Nicklaus and held annually at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio, the tournament partners for the first time with three-time NBA champion and two-time MVP Stephen Curry of the Golden State Warriors, and Ayesha Curry, an entrepreneur, host and New York Times bestselling author. After a two-year hiatus due to the pandemic, the RBC Canadian Open (June 6-12) in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, returns to the schedule in 2022 at St. George’s Golf and Country Club. Rory McIlroy won the last RBC Canadian Open, played in 2019. Other notable items and changes to the 2021-22 PGA TOUR Schedule include (in chronological order): 2021 • As previously announced, the Fortinet Championship (September 13-19), with new title sponsor Fortinet, kicks off the 2021-22 FedExCup Regular Season at Silverado Resort and Spa in Napa, California. • The Ryder Cup will be played the week following the Fortinet Championship, with nine official events played during the balance of 2021 for a total of 10 events to be played in the fall. • The reconfigured Asia Swing will begin with THE CJ CUP @ SUMMIT (October 11-17), which moves to the United States for the second year in a row and will be staged at The Summit Club in Las Vegas, Nevada, delivering back-to-back weeks of PGA TOUR golf in Las Vegas, as the Shriners Children’s Open will be contested October 4-10. • Following THE CJ CUP @ SUMMIT will be the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP and World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions, with additional details to be available in the near future. • As previously announced, World Wide Technology embarks on its first year of title sponsorship of the TOUR’s original event in Mexico, the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba (November 1-7). 2022 • The Sentry Tournament of Champions – a PGA TOUR winners-only event – leads off the 2022 calendar year (January 3-9). • The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (January 31-February 6) and the Waste Management Phoenix Open (February 7-13) trade spots in the schedule, as the TOUR’s event at TPC Scottsdale remains in its traditional date of Super Bowl week. • The Puerto Rico Open (February 28-March 6) will be played as an additional event alongside the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. • The Corales Puntacana Championship (March 21-27), in its first year under an extended term, will be played as an additional event alongside the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play. • The Mexico Championship (April 25-May 1) returns to the calendar as a PGA TOUR co-sponsored event, no longer under the World Golf Championships umbrella. With the field of 132 players, there is an anticipation of additional Mexican golfers in the field to help in inspire and grow the game in one of golf’s key emerging markets. • With the biennial Presidents Cup being held at the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte in 2022, the Wells Fargo Championship (May 2-8) will be contested for one year at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm in Potomac, Maryland. • The John Deere Classic (June 27-July 3), traditionally played the week prior to The Open Championship, moves one week earlier. • Following The Open Championship, the 3M Open (July 18-24), Rocket Mortgage Classic (July 25-31) and Wyndham Championship (August 1-7) close out the FedExCup Regular Season. The European Tour will announce the initial portion of its 2022 schedule later this month, with the full season announcement to follow in due course. FULL PGA TOUR 2021-22 SCHEDULE

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