Who’s feeling confident at Conway Farms

The FedExCup Playoffs present a unique tradeoff as compared to all other events; that is, a participant can go winless and still be crowned champion. The odds are stacked against that scenario, and it would still require a dynamite season leading up to the Playoffs to make it possible, but points leader Jordan Spieth is halfway there with a pair of runner-up finishes. If it happens, you wouldn’t say that any of the winners of the four tournaments in the Playoffs were more or less confident throughout, but it might be tough for Spieth to associate the value of the crown in the absence of a trophy during the series. Whatever happens, it’s compelling theater with bonus drama for the permutations geeks, myself included. Jason Day recorded a wire-to-wire victory at the 2015 BMW Championship at Conway Farms. Like Spieth this week, the Aussie strutted in as the No. 1 in the FedExCup standings. Day then put on a clinic as his splits illustrate below. Two years prior, Zach Johnson overcame Jim Furyk (and a 59) with the kind of laser show on approach with which he’s been synonymous throughout his career. Not dissimilar to how St. Andrews provided a level playing field for the diversified attacks of Johnson and Day in the 2015 Open Championship (when ZJ prevailed in a playoff and Day finished one stroke back), Conway Farms caters to all styles. However, the winner will have executed masterfully in multiple areas of his game. In other words, while the low aggregate projects to be double digits under par, don’t expect a putting contest to break out. With no cut and the probability of low rounds, we’re compelled to invest in scoring statistics. The 2015 field averaged 4.05 par breakers per 11.93 greens in regulation, a ratio that supports the angle. NOTE: Golfers inside the top 20 in each statistic in the FedExCup Playoffs are listed only if they are scheduled to compete in the BMW Championship. * – Finished inside the top 10 at the BMW Championship in 2013 and/or 2015. Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green Rank  Golfer 1  *Dustin Johnson 2  Jordan Spieth 3  Justin Thomas 4  Justin Rose 5  Patrick Cantlay 6  Paul Casey 7  Hudson Swafford 8  Stewart Cink 10  Patrick Reed 11  Marc Leishman 12  Kevin Chappell 13  *Kevin Na 14  *Jason Day 15  Jon Rahm 16  Emiliano Grillo 17  *Charl Schwartzel 18  *Hideki Matsuyama 20  Russell Henley Greens in Regulation Rank  Golfer 1  Patrick Cantlay 3  Marc Leishman 4  Jordan Spieth T5  *Dustin Johnson T5  Gary Woodland 8  Luke List 9  Keegan Bradley 10  Paul Casey T11  Stewart Cink T11  Sergio Garcia T11  *Hideki Matsuyama T11  *Henrik Stenson 16  Louis Oosthuizen 17  Hudson Swafford 18  Brendan Steele T19  *Jason Day T19  *Rickie Fowler T19  Emiliano Grillo T19  Justin Rose Putting: Birdie-or-Better Percentage Rank  Golfer 2  Jordan Spieth 3  Jon Rahm 4  Justin Thomas 5  Kyle Stanley 6  Paul Casey 7  Brooks Koepka 8  *Jason Day 9  Justin Rose T10  *Kevin Na 12  Grayson Murray 13  Sergio Garcia 14  Kevin Chappell 15  Jason Dufner 17  Marc Leishman 18  *Rickie Fowler 19  *Dustin Johnson 20  Robert Streb Scrambling Rank  Golfer 1  Justin Thomas 2  *Daniel Berger 3  Patrick Cantlay 4  Webb Simpson 5  Patrick Reed 7  *Dustin Johnson 9  Jon Rahm 10  Bill Haas 11  Adam Hadwin 12  Rafa Cabrera Bello 14  Phil Mickelson 16  Ian Poulter T17  Lucas Glover 19  Jhonattan Vegas 20  Pat Perez Forty-two golfers in this week’s field of 70 completed 72 holes at Conway Farms in at least one of the previous two editions. Of that subset, 23 are prepping for their third appearance. Not surprisingly, only two in my Power Rankings – Jon Rahm (No. 7) and Patrick Cantlay (No. 14) – are first-timers. That’s because both are making their debuts in the FedExCup Playoffs this season. Finishes of those in this week’s field at the 2013 BMW Championship Sorted by finish (players in bold appeared in both 2013 and 2015) Win: Zach Johnson T4: Jason Day T8: Charl Schwartzel T11: Ryan Moore T16: Keegan Bradley; Jordan Spieth T18: Sergio Garcia; Billy Horschel; Gary Woodland T24: Matt Kuchar; Webb Simpson T28: Bill Haas T33: Phil Mickelson; Justin Rose; Henrik Stenson T39: Rickie Fowler; Russell Henley; Charles Howell III; Marc Leishman T44: Ian Poulter T54: Jason Dufner T59: Rory McIlroy; Patrick Reed 61st: Brendan Steele T62: Kevin Chappell; Dustin Johnson 68th: Charley Hoffman Finishes of those in this week’s field at the 2015 BMW Championship Sorted by finish (players in bold appeared in both 2013 and 2015) Win: Jason Day 2nd: Daniel Berger T4: Rickie Fowler; Rory McIlroy T7: Dustin Johnson; Hideki Matsuyama T10: Kevin Na; Henrik Stenson T13: Zach Johnson; Justin Rose; Jordan Spieth; Brendan Steele; Justin Thomas T19: Bill Haas; Louis Oosthuizen T23: Paul Casey; Kevin Chappell; Robert Streb T28: Keegan Bradley; Ryan Moore; Patrick Reed T32: James Hahn; Billy Horschel; Phil Mickelson T39: Sergio Garcia T41: Kevin Kisner; Matt Kuchar; Pat Perez T47: Tony Finau; Danny Lee T49: Russell Henley; Brooks Koepka T53: Brian Harman; Charley Hoffman; Sean O’Hair; Ian Poulter T60: Gary Woodland T64: Webb Simpson

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