Who will replace NBC’s Miller when he retires?

At the halfway point of the THE PLAYERS, Webb Simpson has built himself a 5-shot lead after a dazzling 9-under par 63. It could have been even better for Simpson if not for an errant tee shot that found the water on the island green 17th, ultimately leading to a double bogey. Given this unique circumstance of one player finding himself five clear of an otherwise bunched leaderboard, it is difficult to intuitively come up with accurate win probabilities without the use of a statistical model. Here are the top 10 win probabilities according to our model as we head into the weekend: As expected, Webb Simpson is the heavy favorite with a 50 percent chance of becoming THE PLAYERS champion. This is obviously due in large part to the lead he has built, but another important factor is how highly our model rates Simpson, who it estimates to be the 17th strongest player in the field. Moving down we see two big names in Jason Day and Dustin Johnson, who despite being positioned T8 and T11 respectively, each carry sizable win probabilities. This is not surprising given our model estimates them both to be more than 2 shots better per round than an average PGA TOUR player. It was also an exciting day around the cutline. In the end, 80 players finished at 1 under par or better and will advance to play the weekend. This excitement can be characterized nicely through the cut probability evolution of Tiger Woods, who ended up making the cut on the number:   At the time of finishing his round Woods was tied for 64th, but with the course playing relatively easy at the time, he only had a 47 percent chance of making the cut. Luckily for Woods, the course toughened up for the afternoon wave, which at one point boosted his chance of making the cut to 95 percent. Things then got very interesting. Toward the end of play birdies were in abundance for the remaining players on the course, so much so that at one point Woods fell to T72 and outside the cutline. The model wasn’t to be fooled though, as it still gave him a 66 percent probability of making the cut given how difficult the finishing holes were playing. In the end the model estimates were accurate as TPC Sawgrass reminded us all of what may be to come on Sunday, as a host of the TOUR’s best players stumbled down the finishing stretch to move the cutline back to minus 1. NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the THE PLAYERS Championship, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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Leaderboard: Spieth starts slam quest

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Given the construct of its field, the Butterfield Bermuda Championship won’t be for the faint of heart. Yet, it also increases the possibility of record-high scoring in PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live. To play or not to play isn’t even questioned. Though you fight to stay alive, your body starts to shiver. For no mere gamer can resist the evil of the thriller. Register for PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live here and monitor Rob’s and Glass’ progress as Influencers. For a broader explanation of the format and FAQs, click here. TOURNAMENT TO WIN Rob … Henrik Norlander (+8000) As eager as I was in launching the board, I can’t justify pointing an arrow at anyone longer than these odds, so we’ll start here and adjust as always (unfortunately). The Swede’s strongest skills keep the ball in play from tee to green, so he’s a lottery ticket with the putter. A lot like Sepp Straka, who broke through at The Honda Classic – I’ll never forget it! – Norlander has multiple seasons of experience without a victory on the PGA TOUR, so if he wants to make a change, he can start with the man in the mirror. This is his third appearance at Port Royal. He cashed in the inaugural edition in 2019 when you’d expect a ball-striker to step out front. Five of his six career rounds on the course are under par. Glass … Vaughn Taylor (+20000) Absolutely NO REASON this week not to have fun with this pick PRE-TOURNAMENT, so let’s dance. His last top 10 was in a similar field in Puerto Rico last March when he picked up T7. You bet I’m grasping at straws! His last win on TOUR came out of nowhere when he won at Pebble Beach in 2016, so I’m looking to recreate history in Bermuda this week. The format allows us to reload once the pipe dream wakes up covered in bogeys. TOP 10 Glass … Ryan Armour (+625) Traditional Horse for Course has witnessed Brian Gay pulling this off at an, ahem, extended age, so he’ll believe as well. Nothing wrong with a bit of veteran love this week as they know how to survive the elements and keep the ball in play in tough situations. Rob … Austin Eckroat (+625) It’s black and white. Although he’s one of my Sleepers, rising for this finish would be a bonus. Good thing we’re likely going to have multiple opportunities to pivot! Actually, I noted that he’s the only rookie with as many as three paydays and without a top 10, so that’s the kind of bulletin-board material that I expect to inspire him. He’s also not a debutant what with a T22 here last year. TOP 20 Rob … Austin Eckroat (+225) This is where I plan on retaining the investment even if given a choice. Getting back more than double the virtual investment is sufficient. His proclivity to find fairways and greens is the peace of mind we all want if this bet proves to be a hit-it-and-hope experience. It’s as easy as 1-2-3, at least in theory. Glass … Kevin Yu (+300) Won’t be intimidated by the field and has enough chops throughout the bag to factor this week. Always the most conservative of the three BIG BETS of the week as the window can get sticky or stuck closed on the weekends. I’m going to ride the youth to figure out a way to crash the party in Southampton. ROUND 1 LEADER Glass … Austin Smotherman (+7000) Start early so you can play often! Fantastic player tee to green means I’ll need a hot ROUND, not week, with the flat stick to cash in here. MC here last year but posted 67 in the second round suggests he might have figured it out. If not, I have all morning (minus the one-hour time difference) to adjust. The front nine on which Smotherman opens doesn’t have the four most difficult holes on the ledger, so I’d start on this side first. Rob … Henrik Norlander (+7000) I’m always so impressed at Glass’ positive energy for the FRL. I mean, why not, but rotating the bingo ball and hoping that my guy is B1 (be the one!) requires so much more luck than know-how. I can’t beat it. With threatening weather in the forecast, it’s possible that R1 won’t finish on Thursday, but if there isn’t a delay, scoring should be equitable across the waves, anyway. In other words, even though we always want to target an early starter, keep a finger on eject unless your guy matches Taylor Pendrith’s course-record 61. Norlander is my outright and he goes off in the second threesome (off 10). He’ll have signed his card by the time I’m lucid, so firing up the glowing rectangle to see if I’m in position to deposit 1,750 coins could be almost as much fun as any Halloween party that I’ve attended. Whatever happens here, enjoy it out there this weekend. NOTE: While Glass and Rob typically stick with their selections as detailed in Pick ‘Em Preview, they are allowed the right to make changes at any time. Responsible sports betting starts with a game plan. Set a budget. Keep it social. Play with friends. Learn the game and know the odds. Play with trusted, licensed operators. CLICK HERE to learn more at HaveAGamePlan.org.

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