Officialsportsbetting.com Golf Betting What separates Will Zalatoris from the pack

What separates Will Zalatoris from the pack

Separating Factor One way of measuring a player’s ability to assemble rounds that separate him or her from the competition is to look at the percentage of the time he gains a large amount of strokes against the field in one specific discipline. For example, players gain a full stroke or more over the field with their approach shots about 27% of the time overall. Collin Morikawa, however, does that 55% of the time. Morikawa is the PGA TOUR leader in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last two seasons, at 1.13 per round. Zalatoris has flashed the ability to separate himself from the field via his approach play over the last two seasons. He gains more than one stroke with his approach play in 41.7% of his rounds since the beginning of last season, the fifth-highest rate on TOUR in that span. Zalatoris has gained three or more strokes on the field with his approach play in 9.2% of his rounds – that is more than three times the TOUR average (3.0%) over the last 2 seasons. Long Iron Advantage The best players in the world are able to make marginal gains over the field in myriad ways. One of the key places where Zalatoris makes those gains is on long approach shots, where he is consistently better than the competition. Over the last two seasons, Zalatoris is ranked 11th on the PGA TOUR in average proximity on approach shots outside 200 yards. Will’s average of 46 feet, 7 inches from that range may not seem overwhelming on the surface, but consider this: that’s more than 6 feet better than the PGA TOUR average. From 175-200 yards away, he’s more than 2 feet better than the TOUR average over the last two seasons. Breaking it down to shots from 200-225 yards out, he’s 4 feet, 5 inches better than the average. These add up over the course of a tournament, especially at a place like Bay Hill Club & Lodge, a venue that has yielded more approaches from outside 200 yards than any other PGA TOUR venue over the last 5 seasons. Due for a Breakthrough? The PGA TOUR has seen a wave of first-time winners early in 2022. Four of the last five winners on TOUR have been first-timers, the first time we have seen that happen since the fall of 2017. This is the first calendar year in which there were four first-time winners before March 1st since all the way back in 2002. It’s not unprecedented for a first-time winner to emerge from the traditionally strong fields at Bay Hill, as both Matt Every (2014) and Tyrrell Hatton (2020) have claimed their maiden PGA TOUR titles at this tournament in recent years. With underlying metrics that predict big-time success, that breakthrough win could come this week for Zalatoris. Last April, casual sports fans were introduced in grand fashion to wiry Will Zalatoris. Zalatoris had all phases of his game clicking in his Masters debut: he ranked fourth in the field that week in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, second in greens in regulation (73.6%) and fifth in Strokes Gained: Putting. His solo runner-up finish was the best by a player in his Masters debut since Dan Pohl in 1982. But golf fans in the know had been attuned to Zalatoris’ ascent for some time. In each of his first five Korn Ferry Tour starts after the pandemic hiatus, Zalatoris finished T6 or better. In the extended 2020-21 Korn Ferry Tour season, Zalatoris ranked first in scoring average, ball striking and the all-around ranking. A T6 at the U.S. Open in the fall of 2020 further cemented Zalatoris’ status as a name on the rise. Zalatoris played his way off the Korn Ferry Tour months earlier than anticipated and propelled himself to the Arnold Palmer Award, given to the TOUR’s top rookie, in 2021. Just how good has Zalatoris been in his young pro career, and why has he exceled? Twenty First Group dove into the numbers. Elite Ball Striker There are 177 players with 50 or more rounds measured by PGA TOUR ShotLink since the 2020 U.S. Open at Winged Foot began. Among that group, Zalatoris has generated some of the most impressive and consistent tee-to-green statistics. He ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach, trailing only Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas and Paul Casey. He’s fifth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, narrowly behind reigning FedExCup champion Patrick Cantlay in that statistic. He’s sixth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in that span, a statistic that isolates performance off the tee and on approach shots. When narrowing the focus to just this season, the numbers are even more impressive. Zalatoris leads the TOUR in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (1.93) and Strokes Gained: Approach (1.22) per round. He’s currently ninth in greens in regulation (74.6%) and has more than doubled his amount of Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round so far this season compared to last. Improvement on the greens could elevate Zalatoris into superstardom: so far this season, he’s making below the TOUR average on putts from 4-8 feet, inside 10 feet and from 10-15 feet.

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Major Specials 2025
Type: To Win A Major 2025 - Status: OPEN
Scottie Scheffler+160
Bryson DeChambeau+350
Xander Schauffele+350
Ludvig Aberg+400
Collin Morikawa+450
Jon Rahm+450
Justin Thomas+550
Brooks Koepka+700
Viktor Hovland+700
Hideki Matsuyama+800
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PGA Championship 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+450
Scottie Scheffler+450
Bryson DeChambeau+900
Justin Thomas+1800
Collin Morikawa+2200
Jon Rahm+2200
Xander Schauffele+2200
Ludvig Aberg+2500
Joaquin Niemann+3000
Brooks Koepka+4000
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AdventHealth Championship
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Kensei Hirata+2000
Mitchell Meissner+2200
SH Kim+2200
Neal Shipley+2500
Seungtaek Lee+2800
Hank Lebioda+3000
Chandler Blanchet+3500
Pierceson Coody+3500
Rick Lamb+3500
Trey Winstead+3500
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Regions Tradition
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Stewart Cink+550
Steve Stricker+650
Ernie Els+700
Steven Alker+750
Miguel Angel Jimenez+1200
Bernhard Langer+1400
Jerry Kelly+1600
Alex Cejka+1800
Retief Goosen+2500
Richard Green+2500
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US Open 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+500
Scottie Scheffler+500
Bryson DeChambeau+1200
Xander Schauffele+1200
Jon Rahm+1400
Ludvig Aberg+1400
Collin Morikawa+1600
Brooks Koepka+1800
Justin Thomas+2000
Viktor Hovland+2000
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The Open 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+500
Scottie Scheffler+550
Xander Schauffele+1100
Ludvig Aberg+1400
Collin Morikawa+1600
Jon Rahm+1600
Bryson DeChambeau+2000
Shane Lowry+2500
Tommy Fleetwood+2500
Tyrrell Hatton+2500
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Ryder Cup 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
USA-150
Europe+140
Tie+1200

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Wyndham Rewards Top 10 preview: Sanderson Farms ChampionshipWyndham Rewards Top 10 preview: Sanderson Farms Championship

The Wyndham Reward Top 10 is a season-long competition that offers a $10 million bonus for the 10 golfers who end the regular season at the Wyndham Championship inside the top 10 in FedExCup points. The player atop the standings will earn $2 million, with varying payoffs for the others through $500,000 for the 10th place finisher. Brooks Koepka is the defending champ of the Wyndham Rewards Top 10. Last week’s A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier began the new season, with tournament winner Joaquin Niemann the current No. 1 in points. RELATED: Expert predictions for Wyndham Rewards Top 10 This week: Sanderson Farms Championship Current Top 10 in field 1. Joaquin Niemann 2. Tom Hoge T3. Harris English T3. Richy Werenski T7. Sebastian Munoz T7. Scottie Scheffler T7. Robby Shelton T10. Mark Hubbard T10. Matt Jones Scenarios notes • It’s just the second tournament of the new season. With 500 points on the winner, this week’s champ is guaranteed a spot in the top 10. In fact, a solo top-10 finish or better is projected to leave any player inside the top 10. • Only Niemann and Hoge are guaranteed to stay inside the top 10 this week, even if they miss the cut. • Of the 156 players in the field, 100 will be looking for their first FedExCup point to start their Wyndham Rewards chase.

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From triple-bogey to trophy: A look at the last 10 players to win after making triple in the first roundFrom triple-bogey to trophy: A look at the last 10 players to win after making triple in the first round

It's not how you start. It's how you finish. Cameron Smith showed that at last year's Sony Open in Hawaii. Smith won despite playing his first two holes in 4 over par, including a triple-bogey on his second hole of the tournament. Smith is the only player in the ShotLink era (since 2003) to win after playing his first two holes in 4 over par. He's also one of just 10 players since 1990 to win after making a triple-bogey (or worse) in the opening round. Smith is in strong company, as Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Rory McIlroy, Greg Norman, Davis Love III and Sergio Garcia have also done it. It may come as no surprise that Mickelson is the only player on the list twice. It makes sense that this group includes many of the best players from the past 30 years. It's hard to win after spotting the field three shots on a single hole. Let's look at the last 10 players to win after making a triple (or worse) in the opening round and how they recovered from such a tough start. Cameron Smith 2020 Sony Open in Hawaii – 2nd hole No winner in the ShotLink era has gotten off to a worse start. Smith bogeyed his opening hole at Waialae, then tripled the next one. Smith had to hole a 14-footer just to save bogey on his first hole. Then he hit "maybe the worst shot I've ever hit on TOUR." His tee shot on the second hole, a 425-yard, par-4, was "the biggest, quickest snap hook you've ever seen in your life," he said. It traveled just 177 yards. He had to lay up, then knocked his 110-yard third shot over the green. He chunked a chip, hit his next one to 7 feet and missed the putt. Smith birdied three of his final four holes to shoot 70, then shot of 65-66-68 before winning a playoff with Brendan Steele. "There's no point in worrying about what you've just done," Smith said, "You may as well be focused on what you can do." Rory McIlroy 2016 Deutsche Bank Championship – 12th hole It had been more than a year since his last win, and there was nothing about his start to the 2016 Deutsche Bank Championship that made it look like his drought would come to an end this week. He bogeyed his second hole of the tournament and was facing a 14-footer for triple on the next one. He made it, then went bogey-free on his next 15 holes to salvage an even-par 71. He started the final round six back, but shot 65 in cool, windy conditions to beat Paul Casey by two. "It’s just incredible, this game, how quickly things can change and how quickly things can turn around," McIlroy said. "It’s been a great lesson for me this week not to get down on myself, to stay patient. After three holes on Friday, there was so much going through my head and none of those things involved sitting beside a trophy at the end of the week." McIlroy won the TOUR Championship two weeks later to claim his first FedExCup. His season had gone from mediocre to memorable in a matter of weeks. Phil Mickelson 2009 TOUR Championship – 14th hole Mickelson was cruising along at 1 under par for his first 13 holes of the 2009 TOUR Championship. Then he arrived at the 442-yard, downhill 14th hole (now East Lake's fifth hole). The trouble didn't come off the tee. Mickelson blasted a 321-yard tee shot into the middle of the fairway, leaving himself just 125 yards to the hole. He dumped that approach shot into the front greenside bunker, however. It took him six strokes to hole out from there. He bladed the bunker shot over the green, then hit his next shot back into the same bunker. He left the next shot in the sand before blasting out to 8 feet and two-putting. His first-round 73 left him seven shots off the lead. He played the next three rounds in 12 under par, six strokes better than anyone else in the field. His final-round 65 was the best of the day by two strokes. Adam Scott (2016 Honda Classic) is the only player since to win after making a quadruple-bogey. Phil Mickelson 2007 Deutsche Bank Championship – 9th hole What a week it was. Before the tournament, he visited Kennebunkport, Maine, for golf with President George H.W. Bush. After the second round, Mickelson watched the Red Sox' Clay Buchholz throw a no-hitter at Fenway Park. Then Mickelson won the second event of the inaugural FedExCup Playoffs. Mickelson, who was paired with Tiger Woods and Vijay Singh in the opening round, had a birdie and an eagle in his first four holes. He gave it all back on the ninth hole, though. "I certainly made a big mistake on 9," he said. "It was just a sloppy swing. I felt like there was so much fairway out there. I just didn’t give it the attention it needed. I hit just a terrible shot and ended up making triple." It was his only over-par hole of his first-round 70, and one of just three he had for the event. He shot 64-68-66 in the final three rounds to finish two ahead of Woods, Arron Oberholser and Brett Wetterich. Mark Calcavecchia 2007 Valspar Championship – 17th hole Calcavecchia had just birdied the opening hole of the Snake Pit to get back to even par in the first round of the 2007 Valspar Championship. Then he got bit. On the 208-yard 17th, his tee shot came to rest nearly 50 yards left of the hole. He hit his next shot into a greenside bunker and blasted out. But three putts from 14 feet left him with a triple-bogey. He bogeyed 18 for a first-round 75 that left him 10 shots off the lead and tied for 112th place. Calcavecchia, 46, charged into a share of the 54-hole lead with a Saturday 62 that tied the course record. He missed a 5-foot par putt on the 72nd hole, but still won after Heath Slocum missed his 4-footer for par. It was the last of Calcavecchia's 13 wins, which includes the 1989 Open Championship. His 75 tied the highest first-round score by a winner in the last 30 years. Only two players since have won after shooting 75 in the first round (Jon Rahm, 2020 BMW Championship; Brooks Koepka, 2018 U.S. Open). Vijay Singh 2004 RBC Canadian Open – 11th hole This win came during the finest season of Singh's career, when he won a career-high nine times. He broke the heart of a nation at Glen Abbey, beating native son Mike Weir in a playoff. Singh won despite making TWO triple-bogeys on the same hole, Glen Abbey's 11th, that week. He signed for 7s on the 452-yard hole in both the first and third rounds. He was 7 over par on the 11th hole that week and 16 under par on the other 68 holes. He is the only player since 1983 (when the TOUR started keeping hole-by-hole stats) to win while making multiple scores of triple-bogey or worse. An incredible comeback in the first round made this win possible. He played a seven-hole stretch on his back nine in 7 under par, shooting 28 on that side en route to a first-round 68. Davis Love III 2003 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am – 2nd hole A week earlier, a fellow TOUR player asked Love if he'd ever double-hit a chip shot. He hadn't. "So, of course, the next round I play, I double-hit a chip and it cost me a triple." It was part of a topsy-turvy first round for Love at Poppy Hills. He eagled his opening hole but was 3 over after 15 holes. He birdied his final three holes to salvage an even-par round. "You forget about it and move on," Love said. "Unfortunately, I've made a lot of triples." He played his final 54 holes in 14 under par to beat Tom Lehman by one. Sergio Garcia 2002 Sentry Tournament of Champions – 13th hole Garcia shared some big goals at the start of the season-opening event. Woods had completed the Tiger Slam less than a year earlier but Garcia wasn't afraid to express his desire to win the money list on both sides of the Atlantic. "That's the expectations," Garcia said in his pre-tournament press conference. "You've got to try to take them as high as you can so you're able to reach the closest to that goal." Garcia's season got off to a topsy-turvy start, however. He made five birdies and an eagle in the first round but also had a triple and four bogeys. His 73 beat just six players in the 32-man field and was 10 shots behind leader Mike Weir. Garcia shot 9-under 64 in the final round to force a playoff with David Toms. Garcia holed a 10-foot birdie putt on the final hole of regulation, then did it again on the first playoff hole. It was Garcia's third win in his last 11 PGA TOUR starts. "I'm leading the money list," Garcia said. "When I get old I can say to my nephews, ‘I was the money leader - for at least one week.'" Tiger Woods 2001 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard – 8th hole A month before completing the Tiger Slam, Woods had to answer questions at Bay Hill about a slump. He'd won 17 times in the previous two seasons, but had gone a whopping five starts in 2001 without a victory. "I’m scoring better than I did last year," Woods said. "The only problem is I just haven’t got the right breaks at the right time, and you need to have that in order to win." He got one on the final hole of the tournament. First, he had to overcome a mistake on his second-to-last hole of the opening round. Woods made triple on his 17th hole Thursday, hitting his approach into the pond that fronts Bay Hill's eighth green. He knocked his next shot into a bunker behind the green. With a bad lie in the sand, he couldn't find the green with that shot either. He finally chipped to 4 feet before one-putting for a 7. He shot 71 in the first round, then fired 67-66 in the next two rounds to take a one-shot lead over Sergio Garcia into the final round. When Woods arrived at 18 on Sunday, he was tied atop the leaderboard with Mickelson. Woods pulled his tee shot left of the fairway. His ball was headed towards the OB before bouncing off the neck of spectator Tony DeKroub. Woods took advantage of the good fortune, hitting his 195-yard approach to 15 feet and sinking the birdie putt to nip Mickelson. Woods won THE PLAYERS and the Masters in his next two starts. Greg Norman 1990 Doral-Ryder Open – 3rd hole Norman's career was defined by Sunday struggles and clutch shots that denied him titles. Not this week. On the final day of the 1990 Doral-Ryder Open, he shot a course record before chipping in on the first hole of a playoff. Norman had eight birdies in his first-round 68. He also made triple-bogeyat the third hole after hooking his tee shot into the water. "It was ugly," he said. "It wasn't too far in and I started to go in the water to hit it. I took my shoes and socks off but before I knew it, I was up to my knees in mud. I figured I'd better take a drop." He was still just three shots behind leader Jim Gallagher, Jr. Norman fell seven off the pace after shooting 73-70 in the next two rounds, however. He made a Sunday charge with a course-record 62 on Sunday before winning his playoff with Paul Azinger, Mark Calcavecchia and Tim Simpson. The first paragraph of Sports Betting News said it all. "Greg Norman, who has discovered so many remarkable methods of losing golf tournaments, finally found an equally spectacular way to win one on Sunday," it read. David Frost 1990 USF&G Classic – 15th hole Unfortunately, it wasn't long before Norman faced more heartbreak. Three weeks after Doral, Robert Gamez holed a 7-iron on Bay Hill's 18th hole to beat Norman. Then Frost clipped Norman by a shot in New Orleans after holing a bunker shot on the 72nd hole. Norman shot a final-round 65, the lowest score of the tournament. He finished eagle-birdie-bogey-birdie, hitting his approach on 18 to 9 inches. He looked like he was headed for at least a playoff, if not a victory, after Frost found the bunker off the tee and by the green. Then he sank his sand shot to cap off a back-nine 31. "What can you say? He hit a great shot," Norman said. Frost won despite a triple on the par-5 15th in the first round. His 71 was still just two shots off the lead.

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