Weekly 18: Three deserving, inspiring winners

Through 36 holes at The RSM Classic, Charles Howell III leads by 3 strokes at 14 under par. His closest pursuers are Cameron Champ and Jason Gore, both of whom are sitting on 11 under. Here are the top 10 win probabilities according to our live model: We have Champ and Howell III estimated to be of nearly identical ability levels; therefore the 30 percentage point advantage for Howell III is entirely due to his current 3 stroke advantage. A little further back is Webb Simpson at 6 under par. Simpson is by a wide margin the class of this field according to our model and could be a player to watch for over the weekend. Howell III has been a model of consistency throughout his career. Shown below is his performance data for every tournament since the 2014 season. The y-axis here is in units of adjusted (for field strength) strokes-gained. Remarkably, despite having a 10 event moving average (the black line) that fluctuates between 0 and +1 for most of this time span, Howell III had just 1 event in which he averaged more than +3 strokes-gained. This is statistically very unlikely, and indicates that Howell III is a low-variance player (i.e. has fewer great rounds but also fewer poor rounds than the typical player of his ability level). To win on the PGA TOUR, anywhere from a +2.5 to +6 true strokes-gained performance can be required to get it done (depending on field strength and how widely dispersed scores are in a given week). To win this weekend for the first time since 2007, Howell will almost certainly need to average above that +3 strokes-gained barrier for the week. NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of The RSM Classic, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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NASSAU, Bahamas – They would seem like a lock, given that the U.S. Team nearly won the Presidents Cup a day early at Liberty National two years ago. Not so fast. “I believe we can win next week,� Adam Scott said from the Australian Open, which, given the lopsided history of the Presidents Cup, is itself a radical statement. But his optimism may be well-founded. This is a young International Team, blessedly absent scar tissue. They’ll be at home. And there are uncertainties hanging over the U.S. Team. Abstractly, as U.S. mainstay Patrick Reed reminded reporters at the Hero World Challenge, which starts Wednesday at Albany Golf Club, “A lot can happen in two years.� More specifically, the Americans will roll into Royal Melbourne with sticky questions about both personnel – injuries, illness, and a late roster move – and logistics. RELATED:  Hero World Challenge pairings may give Presidents Cup hints | Predicting the partnerships for Presidents Cup First, there’s a 16-hour time difference between Nassau and Melbourne, Australia, to which most of the International Team – playing in the Australian Open this week – will have adapted. “I think this is one of the best chances for the Internationals to really compete for the Presidents Cup because not one of their players is here,� the Golf Channel’s Notah Begay III said from Albany, “so they’re not going to have to deal, to the extent of a lot of these guys, with jet lag.� What’s more, the U.S. Team has personnel questions, starting with U.S. Captain Tiger Woods, who will play a minimum of two matches. He admitted Tuesday that no one is quite sure how that will go. For starters, he said, he’ll have to deputize one of his vice captains – Fred Couples, Steve Stricker, Zach Johnson – to take over while he’s competing between the ropes. “We’ll have one of them be the captain,� Woods said, “and I’m still waiting for the TOUR to tell me when that happens, whether or not – when do I relinquish the captaincy role and officially have someone be the captain? Because the captain’s the only one who can receive and give advice. The vice captains can receive advice, but they can’t give advice to the players or even caddies. Trying to figure that out now. “And then also, when do I play?� he added. “Still trying to figure that out, too. So, there’s a lot of moving parts to it.� Moving parts? Yeah, you could say that. World No. 1 Brooks Koepka’s knee injury didn’t heal in time to make the trip to Australia, necessitating a late roster move. “I was kind of on standby,� Rickie Fowler, Koepka’s replacement and Woods’ fifth captain’s pick, said with a smile as he spoke to the press here Tuesday. Fowler was an obvious choice, as he went 3-0-1 two years ago and is 4-3-1 in the Presidents Cup in his career. But will he be rusty? He planned a long fall break to get married, but five days after returning home from his honeymoon he got food poisoning, and WD’d from the Mayakoba Golf Classic. He hasn’t played since the TOUR Championship in late August. Instead, he has tried to keep sharp with matches against friends and fellow TOUR pros in South Florida. Five of them – Justin Thomas, Gary Woodland, Tiger Woods, Jordan Spieth and Fowler – met for a sort of summit of round-robin style matches last weekend. Fowler said he feels “good about my game across the board,� and now returns to a course where he shot an 11-under 61 to win just two years ago – not a bad place to knock the rust off. “This week’s big for me just getting some tournament rounds under my belt and getting back into the swing of things,� he said, “but it’s been really nice to actually have somewhat of an offseason. Definitely the longest break I’ve had away from tournament golf in September and October. I still played and practiced a decent amount, but was able to spend a lot of time the last three months in the gym and getting a lot of work done.� Woods sounded unconcerned about the long layoff. “Rickie just needs to go play,� he said. So does Dustin Johnson, who is returning from a knee injury. A question mark after not playing this fall, he was scheduled to make his return at the Hero but pulled out and is the only one of the 12 U.S. Team members not here. He is expected to join the team next week.    “There’s a lot of adjustments that had to be made, in talking to Tiger, because of Koepka not being available,� said the Golf Channel’s Begay. “The secondary concerns are Fowler hasn’t played in a long time, and Dustin hasn’t played in a long time. “Those are two guys,� he added, “who if you look at how much they played on the last two or three times, you could rely on for high volume. It’s going to be interesting to see how Rickie’s game comes back, and whether Dustin has rehabilitated enough to put a decent game together.� Tony Finau, another U.S. Team member, has either missed the cut or finished outside the top 50 in his last three starts. Matt Kuchar is coming off a missed cut at The RSM Classic. Then there’s Bryson DeChambeau, who finished T13 at the Safeway Open and T4 at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. It was at the Shriners that he announced he would be embarking on a new diet and exercise regime to add muscle, focusing largely on his core. Has it worked? At the Hero, he said he’d gone from under 200 pounds to 222 thanks to focused work with his Denver-based trainer in an effort to increase strength and speed. “He’s definitely gotten thicker,� Fowler said. “I think I put ‘thick’ on his Instagram post. I think I might have had like three Cs in there. He’s definitely put some work in. It’s not easy to put kind of proper weight on as it is also to lose weight, and we’ll see how it works. “I’m not a big fan of moving one way or the other that quickly or that much,� he added. Will this be the same DeChambeau who compiled five TOUR wins at 26? What about Fowler? And Johnson? How will Woods manage his player/captain role? He has told his players he’d rather not suffer a repeat of the ’98 Presidents Cup, also at Royal Melbourne, when he and the rest of the U.S. Team got crushed 20.5 to 11.5, still the Internationals’ only victory. Also, how will the U.S. players bounce back from their disastrous Ryder Cup loss last year? Answers to some of these questions will come at the Hero, while others will have to wait a week. Yes, the U.S. Team is favored, but complacent? No. There’s too much uncertainty for that.

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