Viktor Hovland feeling right at home in Mexico

When my man (and colleague), Mike Glasscott, writes The Confidence Factor in advance of tournaments and the daily Emergency 9 during competition, succumbs to the temptation to preemptively surrender, I don’t know where else to turn for a warm embrace. Glass launched the erstwhile #TTA (for “The Thursday Army”) on Twitter years ago. It’s a tag for all of gamers who lament about an early double bogey or birdie-free opening round in a competitive format in which there is a multitude of opportunities to reverse course and contribute to our cause. With the world connected electronically as it is, why remain patient in sharing dissatisfaction? Like so many others, Glass circled Dustin Johnson as his One & Done for the Genesis Open. After opening the tournament with a 3-over 74 and sitting birdie-free 1-over through eight holes of the second round, DJ seemed to be on a sauntering beeline to slam his trunk. So, at 9:42 a.m. PT on Friday, Glass tweeted, “First, [Hideki] Matsuyama at WMPO. Now, DJ at Genesis. Fantasy golf, bloody [expletive].” Lo and behold, Johnson came home in bogey-free 3-under to survive the cut by two strokes. A bogey-free 64 on Saturday thrust the defending champion to within striking distance of 54-hole leader Bubba Watson. Alas, DJ squandered the four-shot deficit, closed with 73 and landed in a four-way share of 16th place, eight swings adrift of Watson’s championship pace. The last golfer to prevail after opening any tournament with as high as a 74 was Justin Rose at the 2014 Quicken Loans National contested at Congressional, which is a par 71 like Riviera. The last 75 by a champion was carded by Mark Calcavecchia on par-71 Copperhead at the 2007 Valspar Championship. Since 1970, there have been five winners who opened with 76. So, hang in there, Glass, er, gamers, especially when Johnson is in control. If your pick for The Honda Classic signs for an over-par score after his first loop of PGA National’s Champion Course, you’ll have reason to whine. The average score in the opening round among the 11 winners on the par 70 is 67.64. The last six champs averaged 66.67 in laying the foundation. Defending champion Rickie Fowler carded a pair of 66s before opening a four-stroke cushion with a third-round 65. If you’re not angling at him in a major this season (as I am), you think no further while plugging him in. Of the eight golfers among the 29 featured in Future Possibilities below for whom Honda is bolded, Graeme McDowell is the only other with a “1” beside this stop. Given where G-Mac is on his career arc, he presents better as the tail of the tandem in two-man games. Of the foursome with a “2” beside their names, only Sergio Garcia serves as a smart option right now, but he’s always the go-to at THE PLAYERS or The Open Championship because he’s the most reliable at both tournaments devoid of constants. Save Luke Donald for the RBC Heritage, Billy Horschel for the FedEx St. Jude Classic and Adam Scott until he regains form. Rory McIlroy is tempting every time he laces up the spikes, but the Honda doesn’t even appear on his relative long short list. Same goes for Justin Thomas and Jason Dufner. Abstain. Tyrrell Hatton is a timely option and he’d be my choice if Gary Woodland wasn’t available. The Englishman serves as a bridge in a field full of them. Fellow international PGA TOUR members Alex Noren, Tommy Fleetwood and Rafa Cabrera Bello line up similarly. If you’re in a two-man format and McDowell isn’t your pint of Guinness, consider Patton Kizzire, Russell Knox or Dylan Frittelli. Now all you need to do is hold your breath for a red number on Thursday. FUTURE POSSIBILITIES NOTE: Select golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held in 2017-18. The numerical values in parentheses represent the order of relative confidence of where to use each golfer if multiple sites are listed (e.g. 1 for strongest, 2 for next-strongest and so on). To present weighted confidence in real time, numerical values will not change all season no matter how many tournament remain listed for each golfer. All are pending golfer commitment. Daniel Berger … Houston (3); St. Jude (1; two-time defending); Travelers (2) Keegan Bradley … Houston (3); Memorial (5); WGC-Bridgestone (2) Luke Donald … Honda (2); Valspar (3); Heritage (1) Jason Dufner … Valspar (1); DEAN & DELUCA (2); Memorial (3; defending); U.S. Open (4); Wyndham (6); TOUR Championship (7) Rickie Fowler … Honda (1; defending); Houston (4); Masters (8); Wells Fargo (7); PLAYERS (9); WGC-Bridgestone (3); THE NORTHERN TRUST (10); Dell Technologies (6) Jim Furyk … Valspar (5); Heritage (1); Memorial (7); U.S. Open (8); Canadian (3); WGC-Bridgestone (2); THE NORTHERN TRUST (9); TOUR Championship (4) Sergio Garcia … Honda (2); Masters (3; defending); PLAYERS (5); Open Championship (1); TOUR Championship (4) Brian Harman … Arnold Palmer (5); DEAN & DELUCA (4); John Deere (3) Russell Henley … Houston (1; defending); Greenbrier (3) J.B. Holmes … Houston (2); Wells Fargo (7); Greenbrier (5) Billy Horschel … Honda (2); Arnold Palmer (5); Valero (3); St. Jude (1); TOUR Championship (4) Charles Howell III … Valspar (4); Houston (7) Chris Kirk … Valero (4); PLAYERS (3); DEAN & DELUCA (2) Kevin Kisner … Heritage (4); DEAN & DELUCA (1; defending); Memorial (5); Wyndham (6) Russell Knox … Honda (6); Heritage (2); PLAYERS (8); Dell Technologies (7) Jamie Lovemark … Arnold Palmer (3) Graeme McDowell … Honda (1); Heritage (4); WGC-Bridgestone (3) William McGirt … Heritage (1); Memorial (4) Rory McIlroy … Arnold Palmer (10); WGC-Match Play (11); Masters (2); Wells Fargo (1); PLAYERS (8); Memorial (9); Open Championship (4); WGC-Bridgestone (7); Dell Technologies (5); TOUR Championship (3) Ryan Moore … Valspar (5); Masters (8); Travelers (2); John Deere (3); TOUR Championship (6) Ryan Palmer … Valero (1); DEAN & DELUCA (2); St. Jude (6) Scott Piercy … Houston (5); John Deere (6) Patrick Reed … Valspar (6); Travelers (5); PGA Championship (8); Wyndham (7); THE NORTHERN TRUST (9); Dell Technologies (2) Adam Scott … Honda (2); Arnold Palmer (11); Masters (4); PLAYERS (5); U.S. Open (10); Open Championship (8); WGC-Bridgestone (3); Dell Technologies (9); TOUR Championship (6) Webb Simpson … Wells Fargo (7); DEAN & DELUCA (4); Travelers (8); Greenbrier (5); Wyndham (1) Brandt Snedeker … WGC-Mexico (13); Arnold Palmer (12); Masters (7); Heritage (10); DEAN & DELUCA (11); U.S. Open (5); Travelers (6); Canadian (3); Wyndham (4) Justin Thomas … WGC-Mexico (7); Valspar (8); Wells Fargo (9); Dell Technologies (6; defending); TOUR Championship (3) Jimmy Walker … Valero (6); Greenbrier (8); Dell Technologies (7) Gary Woodland … Honda (6); Wells Fargo (5); Barracuda (1); Dell Technologies (3)

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For the 12th-consecutive, and final, season, the FedEx St. Jude Classic will serve as the final tune-up for the U.S. Open this week at TPC Southwind. Next season, the TOUR will return to Memphis but FESJC will be a FedExCup Playoffs event on the new calendar. There is plenty to play for this week as the winner, if not already exempt, will punch a ticket to Shinnecock Hills if this victory pushes him into the OWGR top 60. If that’s not the case I bet the $1.188 million and 500 FedExCup points the winner receives will provide an excellent consolation prize. Memphis has been the site for 60 previous editions and TPC Southwind will play host for the 18th-consecutive season. Playing to a Par-70 at 7,244 yards, the pros will be reintroduced to Champion Bermuda for the first time since Quail Hollow Club in early May. Since a 2004 renovation, TPC Southwind has annually ranked easily inside of the top 15 most difficult courses on TOUR. The last two winners on TOUR who did NOT make a birdie in the final round have both come from this event. Justin Leonard (2005) and Ben Crane (2014) found a way to get the ball in the hole and the tournament trophy on the shelf by surviving on Sunday. I’d suggest having a big lead if that’s the strategy this week! The challenging layout hasn’t seemed to bother two-time reigning champion Daniel Berger. He’s won both times he’s played this event and will look to join an exclusive club of players who have won a TOUR event in three consecutive seasons. He can get some advice from Steve Stricker, who is in the field this week, as he was the last person to complete this feat at the John Deere Classic from 2009-11. Berger joins Leonard as the only players to win this event twice since the 2004 renovation. Berger became just the second player this century to defend and the only player to do so after the 2004 renovation. He used a very similar winning formula to his maiden victory in 2016, as shown above, but his route to the title this time around was significantly different. Beginning in Round 2 he was seven shots back of a trio of leaders on 9-under-par before playing the final two rounds in 8-under to win by one. His 8-under was the co-low total from the weekend and was only matched by Ole Miss junior Braden Thornberry (a), who finished T4. Interestingly enough, those two players had the only two bogey-free rounds in the final round. Berger’s winning total of 270 (-10) was just the 10th double-figure total in the last five years and included 19 birdies against nine bogeys. The course record of 62, set by Woody Austin in 2007, was safe as 64 was the lowest round of the week. Brian Gay’s tournament record of 262 obviously wasn’t sniffed. Gay won by five shots that year and is in the field again this week. Becoming the third first-time TOUR winner in the last four years, Berger played like a season veteran even though he was the second-youngest winner since 1968. His lead was three shots after 36 and 54 holes and his winning total of 13-under 267 was also three better than the pile of studs at T2, Phil Mickelson, Steve Stricker and Brooks Koepka, who all signed for 270. Not even a closing-round 63 from Dustin Johnson (5th) could rattle the 2015 Rookie of the Year. Neither would a three-hour rain delay that same afternoon. Playing with his first 54-hole lead and from his first final pairing, gamers saw his class as he fought off those big names and some less-than-perfect conditions. They say the first one is always the toughest and I don’t think I’m going to argue! He didn’t have any pressure to win to qualify for the U.S. Open as he was already inside the OWGR top 50. Of the previous 58 events, only four international players had waltzed into the winner’s circle to claim the biggest prize. Fabian Gomez made it five in 59 as the Argentine posted all four rounds in red figures to sign for 13-under 267 and win by four shots. After Koepka co-led the first round and was one shot alone after 36, Gomez kicked it into gear with 67-66 to win for the first time on TOUR. Koepka’s weekend of 71-70 saw him share third with Mickelson, five shots adrift. Gomez began the week ranked No. 288 in the OWGR so his victory did not qualify him for the U.S. Open the following week. If you’re looking for a first-time TOUR winner, three of the last five (Harris English, Gomez and Berger) have done just that. If you’re looking for a first-timer at the event, I won’t talk you out of that angle this week either as four of the last seven winners (Lee Westwood, Johnson, English and Berger) had never played here before. NOTE: Golfers inside the top 50 in each statistic on the 2017-18 PGA TOUR are listed only if they are scheduled to compete this week. * – Finished inside the top 10 since 2010 or is a former winner. SG: Tee to Green Rank  Golfer  1  *Dustin Johnson  3  Luke List 12 Henrik Stenson 14 Byeong-Hun An 17 Scott Piercy 18 Tony Finau 27 *Kevin Chappell 35 Chris Kirk 37 *Charles Howell III 39 *Chez Reavie 45 *Phil Mickelson 46 J.B. Holmes 50 *Daniel Berger Greens in Regulation Rank  Golfer  1  Henrik Stenson  8  Sam Ryder 10 C.T. Pan 14 Scott Piercy 15 Andrew Putnam 17 *Dustin Johnson 22 *Charles Howell 23 Cameron Percy 31 *Chez Reavie 33 Tony Finau 34 *Michael Thompson 35 Brett Stegmaier 37 Peter Uihlein 40 Byeong-Hun An 42 *Stewart Cink 45 Bronson Burgoon 46 *James Hahn 47 *Matt Jones 49 *Daniel Berger 50 Nate Lashley SG: Off the Tee Rank  Golfer  1  *Dustin Johnson  3  Keith Mitchell  4  Luke List 10 Byeong-Hun An 11 *Kevin Chappell 16 Tom Lovelady 19 Henrik Stenson 20 Hunter Mahan 21 Trey Mullinax 24 *Ryan Palmer 29 *Billy Horschel 33 J.B. Holmes 36 Tony Finau 38 Charles Howell III 39 Corey Conners 40 J.T. Poston 41 Grayson Murray 44 *Chez Reavie 46 *Matt Jones 48 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 49 Sam Saunders Par-5 Scoring Rank  Golfer  1  Kevin Tway  2  Luke List  4  Tony Finau 12 Austin Cook 13 Tom Hoge 14 Chris Kirk 16 Keith Mitchell 20 Brice Garnett 26 *Phil Mickelson 27 Tyrone Van Aswegen 29 Corey Conners 35 C.T. Pan 35 Peter Uihlein 35 *Harris English 38 *Brian Gay 42 Vaughn Taylor 42 Harold Varner III 45 *James Hahn 45 Ben Silverman 50 *Dustin Johnson From 1990 to 2004 TPC Southwind was over ran by bushels of birdies and played as one of the easiest courses on TOUR. The renovation after the 2004 edition changed the direction 180 degrees. The track has rated inside the top five courses in relation to par in the last 12 years with only Augusta National, PGA National, Torrey Pines (South) and The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio claiming that honor. Throw out Gay’s record-setting total in 2009 when he was on absolute fire and the winning score has not exceeded 13-under during the new phase. The course record has also stood since 2007 so there’s nothing easy about this joint. If the test here is to replicate the U.S. Open to a degree I don’t think many will argue. Ron Prichard’s design only possesses two Par-5 holes but players will need to take advantage to wipe squares off their cards. His Zoysia fairways are usually canted in the opposite direction of the dogleg so only proper shots are rewarded. Tee balls that are loose will end up in three inches of Bermuda rough making recovery shots difficult. With 94 bunkers and 10 water hazards lurking every shot has to be given proper attention. Since 2003 no course (sorry TPC Sawgrass) has claimed as many water balls as TPC Southwind, with Nos. 12 and 18 leading the way. In the last five years there have only been 10 players reach double-digits under par and half have won the event so the level of difficulty reflects in scoring. It also doesn’t help scoring when the temperatures are in the 90’s and the humidity is off the charts. The mental and physical test will both be tough this week. There is good news though! The Champion Bermuda greens are usually in perfect shape and roll true up to 12 feet on the Stimpmeter. And since this isn’t the U.S. Open the pros will get a reprieve greenside if they keep the ball out of the water. TPC Southwind has chalked up the most hole-outs from off the green on TOUR in recent memory and also sits in the top five of easiest courses to get up-and-down. With green sizes averaging just 5,420 square feet most approach shots finding the putting surface will have a good chance at making par. It’s a difficult track but it’s not hard as evidenced by the recent “new” winners and pros who have won on their first try playing the course in tournament form. This tells me that the greens are stock and not the challenge this week; finding the fairways and the greens will be. The last four winning totals have been either 13 or 10-under par but no players, winner or otherwise, have posted more than 21 birdies for the week. Par is a very solid score this week and it’s obvious a few bogeys will also pop up. This will be the sixth consecutive year that Mickelson uses TPC Southwind for his U.S. Open prep. Last year he finished ninth, six shots back, with a card that included two doubles and a triple. There’s a lesson in there folks! Rob Bolton’s Power Rankings will give you more juice for the week so make sure you stop by. It’s also who I trust with the weather each week so pay attention!  NOTE: The groups below are comprehensive to assist in data mining. Inclusion doesn’t imply automatic endorsement in every fantasy game as all decisions are specific to your situation.  

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