US team in foreign territory – trailing – at Presidents Cup

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The PGA TOUR continues the Aloha Swing by taking a quick flight over to Oahu for the Sony Open in Hawaii at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, Hawai'i. The course is a par 70, measuring 7,044 yards and again will be putt on Bermuda greens. Justin Thomas will miss his first Sony Open after playing the past six, which bodes well for the rest of the field. Thomas has dominated Waialae, ranking at or near the top in strokes gained total here since 2015. Thomas's absence gives way to other golfers like Webb Simpson (+1200, $11,100), Collin Morikawa (+1500, $10,600), Daniel Berger (+1800, $10,000), Hideki Matsuyama (+2200, $10,200), Abraham Ancer (+2500, $9,400) and Cameron Smith (+3000, $9,600) as some top names to take down this coastal course. All four of the golfers mentioned above competed in Kapalua last week. A handful of others include Kevin Kisner (+3300, $8,800), Marc Leishman (+8000, $7,900), Stewart Cink (+12500, $7,200) and Nick Taylor (+17500, $6,700). Playing in Hawai'i the week previous has recently proven to give golfers a sizeable advantage. Seven of the past nine winners of the Sony Open have played The Tournament of Champions the week prior. Four of the previous six winners at Waialae finished inside the Top 15 at the Plantation course the week prior. The course is as straightforward as they come. The fairways are tree-lined and relatively flat, with water coming into play on just three holes. Historically, Waialae CC hasn't been adversely affected by weather or wind like other coastal tracks, even with its proximity to the ocean. It can play tricky if the wind picks up substantially, but we've only seen two rounds since 2016 play extremely windy, which were the first two from last season. Missing the fairway won't matter too much this week as we've seen past winners like Cameron Smith, Justin Thomas, Patton Kizzire (+8000, $7,700) and Fabian Gomez (+60000, $6,200) all lose strokes in fairway accuracy and still win. As with all par 70s, success on par 4s is paramount and the most important stat to target this week will be Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green. Top-5 finishers have gained almost twice as many strokes with approach over off-the-tee and nearly three times as much as around-the-green. Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineup here: PGA TOUR $600K Resurgence [$200K to 1st] STRATEGY One way to be contrarian here is by fading a few popular golfers who played last week. You'll hear it throughout the week to play guys who've already made their way to Hawai'i, that they'll have gotten used to the wind and weather and will have played four competitive rounds. While this is true, most lineups may be full of them, especially with the larger than usual field in Kapalua this year. While it's a valid strategy, it isn't a prerequisite to playing well and winning here. Rostering golfers who've done well on correlated courses like Harbour Town (RBC Heritage), El Cameleon (Mayakoba Classic) and PGA National (Honda Classic) is a way to get off the chalk and onto other solid players who'll go unnoticed. Cameron Smith's President's Cup success coupled with gaining 8.2 strokes on the green (first in the field) lead him to the winner's circle last year. He and Brendan Steele (+22500, $7,100) did not compete in Maui the week prior. Also, 14 of the past 15 winners here had played the Sony Open before winning; course experience may be more important than we think. GOLFERS TO CONSIDER Daniel Berger +1800 to Win | $10,000 on DraftKings Berger finished with a top 10 last week and should be well fit for a course that rewards ball-strikers. Over four rounds last week, Berger gained 2.11 strokes off-the-tee and 2.62 with his irons but couldn't get the putter going, losing less than a stroke on the greens. Berger should fare well at Waialae CC, ranking seventh in Strokes Gained: Total on Par 70s over his previous 50 rounds. Berger's advantage shouldn't stop there. He ranks sixth in approach over the same timeframe, first in birdies or better gained and first in par 4 efficiency. He's never missed a cut in his five starts and has top finishes at other correlated courses last season, finishing 23rd at the Mayakoba Classic, fourth at the Honda Classic (where he also finished runner-up in 2015) and third at the RBC Heritage. His win equity makes his short number one that we should feel more comfortable betting on over someone like Hideki Matsuyama at +2200. Berger’s odds present much better value even though they're shorter with a recent win last season over Matsuyama, who hasn't won since 2017. Sungjae Im +2200 to Win | $9,800 on DraftKings A par 70 on Bermuda greens is Sungjae's sweet spot. Winning the Honda Classic last season isn't the only evidence of his skill on these course setups, but also his ability to score on par 4s, ranking 25th in efficiency over the previous 50 rounds. Putting is such a volatile stat, so take it with a grain of salt, but Sungjae on Bermuda is so much better than on other surfaces. Over his prior 50 rounds on Bermuda greens, he ranks eighth in Strokes Gained: Putting and second in birdie or better gained. Finishing no worse than 21st in his only two starts here, he'll look to keep his success going this weekend and should have an advantage with not just playing last week but finishing inside the top 5 at the Plantation Course. Zach Johnson +400 Top 10 | $8,500 on DraftKings Don't overlook Johnson's success here this week. The wedge-extraordinaire ranks sixth in Strokes Gained: Total here since 2016. He's only missed the cut twice dating back to 2004 (Johnson's first appearance), won in 2009 and has two top 10s in his past five starts at Waialae CC. Ranking ninth in par 4 efficiency over his previous 50 rounds, Johnson should lean on his approach game here as he has over the past half-decade, gaining a total of 21.6 strokes with his irons. We should also consider Sebastian Munoz (+6600, $7,800) in this range. Munoz started cold last week, losing 5.38 strokes total on Thursday, but turned it around over his next three rounds, gaining 6.85 strokes total. Marc Leishman +8000 to Win, Top 5 +1200 | $7,900 on DraftKings Leishman's 2019-20 season before the shutdown consisted of a runner-up finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a win at the Farmers Insurance Open. Leishman was historically bad after the shutdown, losing Strokes Gained: Total in 12 of 15 tournaments. His game showed glimpses of getting back to normal when he finished 13th at the Masters and has an excellent opportunity to get back into form at a course he enjoys. Leishman struggled with his putter last week, much like he did in 2020, but gained strokes through approach, mostly from his play on the weekend. The smooth-swinging Aussie should feel comfortable here, ranking fifth in Strokes Gained: Total since 2016. A regular at Waialae, Leishman has only missed the tournament once since 2009, electing not to play in 2012. Even more impressive, he's made all 11 cuts, has gained strokes total in every tournament and has only lost strokes on the greens twice. Matthew NeSmith (+10000, $7,400) is also a cheaper option to acknowledge. NeSmith finished his 2020 season gaining strokes with his irons in eight straight events and finished with a 32nd-place finish here last season. 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NORTON, Mass. – The first time Justin Rose played a competitive round at TPC Boston, he shot 63. That was 15 years ago and he was not yet a TOUR member. He was playing on a sponsor’s exemption extended by then-tournament director Jay Monahan, now the PGA TOUR Commissioner. Rose, then 23-years old, eventually finished solo third and earned his TOUR card without having to go through Q-school. Since then, he’s played more than 300 TOUR events, won nine times – including a major and two WGC events – and also won an Olympic gold medal. It’s been a stellar career. But he’s never been able to match that 63 – although he came close Friday with a bogey-free 6-under 65 to take the first-round lead at the Dell Technologies Championship. “This golf course has been changed and manipulated a lot through the years,â€� said Rose after his 45th career round at TPC Boston. “I think the first couple of years I played really well and enjoyed it. Then obviously significant changes through the years. I guess the last few years things have settled a little bit again. “So I played better when it was pre-redesign. I probably had more success.â€� Indeed. Besides his solo third in 2003, he tied for fourth in 2006. But since the debut of the FedExCup Playoffs the following year and the course’s redesign by Gil Hanse, Rose’s only top-10 finish came last year with a tie for 10th. Perhaps he’s finally starting to solve it. He certainly solved the tricky wind conditions better than anybody else, and his bogey-free round was one of just two on the day (Abraham Ancer had the other in shooting 66). Of course, it helps that he’s an established world-class golfer, ranked sixth in FedExCup points and fourth in the world. Even so, TPC Boston – at least the latest version — may always seem liked a mystery to him. “I’ve had some mixed results here,â€� said Rose, who turned his first missed cut of the season at last week’s FedExCup Playoffs opener into a six-day visit back home. “I’ve had some great weeks and I’ve had some poor weeks here. It’s a course I never really know exactly what to expect. “But it’s a fun golf course.â€� It was fun 15 years ago when he first saw it. Maybe it will be even more fun for him the rest of this week. KEEGAN HANDLING HOMETOWN PRESSURE Keegan Bradley desperately wants to give his New England fans a winning performance. Unfortunately, he’s never really come close at TPC Boston. In six previous appearances at the Dell Technologies Championship, his best finish is a tie for 13th in 2012. That was the year he shot 63 in the third round. Alas, that only moved him within 13 shots of the leader. Two years later, he opened with a 65, leaving him in solo second … and then he gradually dropped down the leaderboard to finish tied for 16th. Yes, the Vermont native – who’s also an unabashed Boston sports fan — gets tons of support here. That also comes with tons of pressure. Now, though, he thinks he can properly channel that pressure. An opening 4-under 67, which leaves him just two shots behind leader Justin Rose, suggests this might be the year. “I’ve learned to love coming here,â€� Bradley said. “It used to be a very tough week for me. I put so much pressure on myself. But I’ve learned to go with it.â€� He’s also learning how to let go of disappointment. A week ago, his third-round 62 at THE NORTHERN TRUST moved him into solo second after 54 holes. A day later, in the final group with eventual winner Bryson DeChambeau, he suffered a free-fall, his 7-over 78 leaving him tied for 34th. Considering he hasn’t won a PGA TOUR event in six years and has just one top-3 finish in his last 119 starts, it was a bitter finish. But by the middle of this week, he was over it. “It was tough, because I felt like that was my day to kind of tell everybody that maybe I was back here and I was here to stay,â€� Bradley said. “I may have put too much pressure on myself. But it’s nice to come right back out and play quickly.â€� Will he keep riding the momentum – and successfully manage the expectations – for the final three rounds this week? Bradley certainly hopes so, but it’ll be difficult not to let his mind wander. “I would love to give the fans and my family who don’t get to come to a lot of tournaments see me compete and do well, maybe win,â€� he said. “That would be incredible. So always in the back of my mind, I think how amazing that would be. How cool that would be. “And that’s something that I’ll have to be aware of this week.â€� NOTABLES DJ’S GUARANTEE … In eight career starts at TPC Boston, Dustin Johnson has three top-10 finishes. He’s only held the lead once in 32 rounds here, and has only been inside the top-5 once entering the final round. His promise: That all changes this year. “I don’t understand why I haven’t had more success here because I like the golf course,â€� he said after an opening 68. “I feel like it sets up well for me. And I’m going to have success this year.â€� OFF THE BOTTOM OF THE SHOE … Marc Leishman’s approach into the par-4 sixth was sailing long right and heading into trouble – until it bounced off the bottom of the shoe of a fan who had stumbled and fallen backwards while trying to get out of the way. The ball ricocheted onto the green, and Leishman capitalized on the break by rolling in the birdie putt from 56 feet, 11 inches. “First time that’s ever happened to me,â€� said Leishman, who shot a 68. “It’s nice when it does happen … Hopefully I don’t need those kind of breaks later in the week.â€� Click here for the video of the shoe shot. TURF TALK … A week ago, Chris Kirk tied for last among all players who made the cut at THE NORTHERN TRUST. This week, he’s off to a great start with a 4-under 67. The difference, he said, is his ability to read the greens at TPC Boston after struggling last week at Ridgewood. And why is that? “I suck on poa annua,â€� Kirk said. He said other than a solo second in the 2013 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, his track record is horrible on poa annua greens. “I wish I somehow had any clue what I did that week,â€� he said. “I’m still using the same putter right now that I used that week.â€� Bentgrass greens, like at TPC Boston, and bermudagrass greens are no problem. “At least I feel good on two out of the three surfaces we play,â€� Kirk said. FEELING FRESH … Beau Hossler played six straight weeks earlier this season. He had another stretch of five straight weeks. But this week is just his third start in the last six weeks. “I feel really fresh, where a lot of players probably don’t right now,â€� Hossler said after his 67. “I would say my game isn’t exactly where I want it to be. But as far as mentally, I feel totally rested and prepared to compete.â€� Hossler’s fast start is no surprise – the rookie is fifth on TOUR in first-round scoring average. BANG-BANG FINISHES … Russell Knox was plodding along and coming off an unfortunate bogey on the 12th hole after finding the middle of the fairway. After that? Three birdies and an eagle hole-out at the par-4 15th to shoot 66 and share second place. “The round was just good in four holes,â€� Knox said. “It was nice. I haven’t hd one of those bang-bang runs in a while.â€� … Abraham Ancer also had one of those runs to finish his bogey-free 66, making four birdies in his last six holes. “Some putts didn’t go in on the front nine and I just stayed patient and made some coming in,â€� Ancer said. QUOTABLES They might be taking an early weekend. Should be in school studying.I’ve learned more about my game this year than any other season, no doubt. SHOT OF THE DAY

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