Top 5 guarantees nothing … for now

OLD WESTBURY, N.Y. – Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson and Rickie Fowler will begin the 2017 FedExCup Playoffs this week as the top five players in the standings. History tells us three of those players will not finish in the top five once the Playoffs end next month at the TOUR Championship. History also suggests it’s unlikely one of those five players – who have combined for 14 wins on the PGA TOUR this season — will emerge at the FedExCup champion. Since 2009, when the last drastic change was made to the FedExCup Playoffs points system, just three players who began the Playoffs inside the top five in points claimed the FedExCup – Tiger Woods, who started No. 1 in 2009; Jim Furyk, who started No. 3 in 2010; and Jordan Spieth, who started No. 1 in 2015. That’s a 37.5 percent success rate. (To be fair, Tiger Woods also won his first FedExCup in 2007 after starting the Playoffs at No. 1. But that was under previous points systems when points were reset at the start of the Playoffs instead of after the third Playoffs event.) On the flipside, there’s a 60 percent rate of turnover in the top five from the start of the Playoffs to the finish. Of the 40 top-five players in those last eight years, just 16 finished inside the top five. Consider that the delicate balance of regular season success versus Playoffs performance versus control-your-own-destiny finale. You play well enough in the regular season to start the Playoffs inside the top five. You play well enough to remain in the top five and enter the TOUR Championship with a guarantee to win the FedExCup with a tournament victory. But if you don’t win at East Lake, you open the door for somebody else to claim the PGA TOUR’s biggest prize. Matsuyama has completed the first leg, winning three events – including two World Golf Championships – to enter as No. 1. His consistency has been rewarded. But now comes the hard part starting this week at THE NORTHERN TRUST, which will be played for the first time at Glen Oaks Club. He’ll tee off Thursday with the biggest target on his back. “Of course I want to be in the top five going into the TOUR Championship,â€� Matsuyama said. “That’s my goal. But reaching my goals, the best way to do that is just to play well. So I won’t worry about where I stand in the FedExCup standings until after probably BMW and heading into THE TOUR Championship. “I found that if I play well, everything will take care of itself and I won’t have to check the standings too much.â€� But as we’ve found out, when you play well can be more important than simply playing well. In each of the last five years, a single player has won two Playoffs events, riding momentum against an ever-decreasing field size. Just three times did that player win the FedExCup. In 2012, Rory McIlroy won the middle two events of the Playoffs and entered East Lake as No. 1. But he finished tied for 10th, allowing Brandt Snedeker to win the TOUR Championship and the FedExCup. Snedeker had started the Playoffs ranked 19th but moved inside the top five thanks to a solo second and a solo sixth in the first two events. Two years ago, Jason Day also won two Playoffs events and was No. 1 going into East Lake. Meanwhile, Jordan Spieth had not done much in those first three events, with a couple of missed cuts and a tie for 13th. But Spieth benefitted from a spectacular regular season, started the Playoffs with 1,710-point lead (as a comparison, Day had a 36-point lead over Dustin Johnson entering last year’s Playoffs; Matsuyama has a 180-point lead over Thomas). That generous cushion allowed Spieth to limit the damage from those so-so results prior to reaching the TOUR Championship. He only dropped to No. 2, then won at East Lake to claim the FedExCup. Day wasn’t the only one burned by Spieth’s win in the finale. Henrik Stenson, the 2013 FedExCup champ, had three runner-up finishes in his four Playoffs starts that season (and tied for 10th in the other). Had Spieth not found his game, Stenson might very well have joined Tiger as the only multiple FedExCup winners. “Because Jordan Spieth made 50-foot bombs when he shouldn’t have,â€� a smiling Stenson said when asked why Tiger’s the only two-time winner. “Next question.â€� Phil Mickelson won the TOUR Championship in 2009 but did not win the FedExCup. He remains the last player to claim that divided prize. Woods had won the previous event, the BMW Championship, and had a tie for second and a tie for 11th in the first two events. Meanwhile, Mickelson did not contend in that stretch, failing to finish inside the top 25 for those three events. Thus, Mickelson was 14th in points entering East Lake. His win wasn’t enough to offset Tiger’s solo second finish that led to his second FedExCup win. While consistent play throughout the Playoffs has its rewards – Stenson, Padraig Harrington in 2009, Dustin Johnson in 2012 and Adam Scott in 2016 are the only players in the last eight years to finish in the top 10 in every event in a single Playoffs – there’s nothing like winning to maintain or acquire that coveted top-five spot entering East Lake. Since 2009, every winner of one of the first three Playoffs events has arrived at the TOUR Championship inside the top-five in points – with one exception. It happened last year. Rory McIlroy won at TPC Boston to climb to fourth in the standings but dropped back to sixth after a T-42 finish at the BMW Championship. Of course, he then won a three-man playoff at East Lake to win the FedExCup. There are many paths to the FedExCup, and it’s why the top five starting this week will likely look different than the top five a month from now. “There’s not a right way and a wrong way,â€� Stenson said. “It’s all about getting enough points to be in the top five and hopefully win the last one.â€�

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