Tiger Woods spent his holiday weekend getting ready for the U.S. Open with a quick trip to Shinnecock Hills.
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Good thing you have an appetite because we’re treated to a luau at the Sony Open in Hawaii. For starters, 23 of the 33 who competed at last week’s Sentry Tournament of Champions made the short trip west to Oahu, including Gary Woodland (2nd), Justin Thomas (3rd), Marc Leishman (T4) and Bryson DeChambeau (7th). You’re going about this game incorrectly if any doesn’t get your call at some point this season. Given the historical trend supporting golfers who opened the calendar year on Maui, I wouldn’t talk you out of any at Waialae Country Club. Seriously. While we need to slow-play the season for positioning entering the FedExCup Playoffs when points are quadrupled, two considerations must be made. First, there are only three tournaments in this season’s Playoffs, so you can shift one of your monsters usually saved to a spot sooner on the schedule. Second, the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club is the only event of the series that doesn’t rotate host sites. Liberty National Golf Club last hosted THE NORTHERN TRUST in 2009 and 2013, while Medinah Country Club hasn’t served as the backdrop for an individual competition since the 2006 PGA Championship. This is why I’m advocating JT this week. For loyal readers, that will come across as a stark departure from my general approach, but he firmly checks both of the boxes guiding all gamers this week. Among his multiple strong showings here, the 2017 Sony champ established the PGA TOUR record for 72 holes at 27-under 253. He also closed strong at Kapalua on Sunday. Furthermore, as strange as it sounds but explained above, we won’t miss him during the Playoffs. And with the majors awarding only 100 more points for a victory than what’s up for grabs at Waialae, his value in this field is even greater. No doubt that part of my decision is reliant on the depth of PGA TOUR membership and worldwide talent to plug a gap later, but I’m vowing to be aggressive to defend my league title. Aside from the other three aforementioned studs, others who opened 2019 at Kapalua and deserve a peek at Waialae include Charles Howell III (T14). He never lets anyone down here, so he’s ideal for front-runners and contenders entering the 10th of 46 tournaments. Matt Kuchar (T19) was a cornerstone here for years and demands a long look. And Scott Piercy (T19) is a terrific play if you want to swing for the fence. Like Piercy, Kevin Kisner is a relative just-off-the-radar option at Waialae who shouldn’t be. That’s what makes him dangerous for gamers who have started slow. Otherwise, you’ll be settling for the stymie at Harbour Town or Colonial. A year ago in this space, the advice was to sit on Jordan Spieth for what would be one opportunity after another, but he didn’t qualify for the Sentry TOC. Now married and making his 2019 debut, you don’t see him going another calendar year without a title, but the advice remains the same. Give him a start or two for him to show us what he has. I know that the Sony Open in Hawaii slots third in Future Possibilities for Zach Johnson, but it’s a distant show from his set-and-forget appearance at the John Deere Classic. But you do you. Two-man gamers naturally get to belly up to the feast for a second helping for which the likes of Adam Hadwin, Danny Lee, Jerry Kelly and Shugo Imahira present intrigue. FUTURE POSSIBILITIES NOTE: Select golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held in 2018-19. The numerical values in parentheses represent the order of relative confidence of where to use each golfer if multiple sites are listed (e.g. 1 for strongest, 2 for next-strongest and so on). To present weighted confidence in real time, numerical values will not change all season no matter how many tournament remain listed for each golfer. All are pending golfer commitment. Keegan Bradley … Farmers (2); Memorial (5); Travelers (4) Paul Casey … WGC-Mexico (6); Honda (10); Valspar (7; defending); WGC-Match Play (8); Masters (2); Wells Fargo (9); Travelers (1); TOUR Championship (3) Bryson DeChambeau … Waste Management (5); Arnold Palmer (3); Heritage (1); Memorial (2; defending); Travelers (4); John Deere (7) Jason Dufner … Desert Classic (9); Honda (3); PLAYERS (7); Valspar (4); New Orleans (1); Charles Schwab (6); Memorial (5); U.S. Open (2); Wyndham (8); TOUR Championship (10) Emiliano Grillo … Arnold Palmer (2); Charles Schwab (3) Adam Hadwin … Desert Classic (1); Waste Management (4); Genesis (3); Valspar (2); John Deere (5) Brian Harman … Sony (2); Desert Classic (3); Arnold Palmer (7); Charles Schwab (1); Travelers (5); John Deere (4) Russell Henley … Sony (2); Honda (4); Masters (3) Charles Howell III … Sony (3); Desert Classic (4); Farmers (1) Zach Johnson … Sony (3); Waste Management (6); Arnold Palmer (7); Valero (4); Charles Schwab (5); John Deere (1); Open Championship (2); TOUR Championship (8) Si Woo Kim … PLAYERS (3); Heritage (1) Chris Kirk … Sony (4); Valero (3); PLAYERS (5); Charles Schwab (2) Kevin Kisner … Sony (4); Heritage (3); New Orleans (5); Charles Schwab (2); Memorial (6) Russell Knox … Sony (3); Heritage (2) Matt Kuchar … Sony (3); Waste Management (4); PLAYERS (5); Valspar (9); Masters (6); Heritage (2); Charles Schwab (7); Memorial (1); Open Championship (8) Marc Leishman … Farmers (2); Arnold Palmer (1); Byron Nelson (6); Memorial (4); Travelers (3); Open Championship (8) Hideki Matsuyama … Waste Management (1); Genesis (10); Arnold Palmer (11); PLAYERS (9); Masters (4); PGA Championship (13); Memorial (8); U.S. Open (14); Wyndham (7); TOUR Championship (5) Kevin Na … Genesis (2); Valspar (6); Charles Schwab (3); Wyndham (5) Scott Piercy … Sony (3); New Orleans (1; co-defending); Canadian (7; last winner at Hamilton in 2012) Patrick Reed … Pebble Beach (6); Valspar (1); Masters (5; defending); PGA Championship (4); U.S. Open (3); Travelers (7) Adam Scott … Genesis (4); Honda (1); Arnold Palmer (10); PLAYERS (2); Masters (6); Byron Nelson (11); PGA Championship (8); U.S. Open (9); Open Championship (7); TOUR Championship (3) Cameron Smith … Wyndham (3) Jordan Spieth … Sony (12); Pebble Beach (3); Genesis (10); WGC-Mexico (11); Valspar (14); Masters (1); PGA Championship (7); Charles Schwab (5); Memorial (13); U.S. Open (4); Travelers (9); Open Championship (6); TOUR Championship (8) Brandt Snedeker … Farmers (3); Waste Management (8); Pebble Beach (2); Masters (10); Heritage (6); Charles Schwab (7); U.S. Open (5); Travelers (9); Wyndham (1; defending) Justin Thomas … Sony (4); WGC-Mexico (2); Honda (7; defending); PLAYERS (11); PGA Championship (9); Memorial (8); TOUR Championship (3) Jimmy Walker … Sony (5); Farmers (4); Pebble Beach (1); Valero (2); Byron Nelson (6) Bubba Watson … Waste Management (4); Genesis (1; defending); WGC-Match Play (6; defending); Masters (5); Memorial (7); Travelers (2; defending); TOUR Championship (8) Gary Woodland … Sony (1); Farmers (2); Waste Management (3; defending); Memorial (4)
It’s the big 5-0! The 50-event super season concludes with this week’s TOUR Championship. If the playoff between Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau at the BMW Championship was the pregame for the final celebration of 2020-21, then we’re in store for quite a show at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. After surviving six holes of sudden death to prevail on Sunday, Cantlay rose to No. 1 in the FedExCup standings, so he will start atop the leaderboard on Thursday. You’ll find the explanation for that, how Starting Strokes influenced the first two editions of the Playoffs finale and much more beneath the ranking. NOTE: This full-field Power Rankings includes starting score for every golfer in the field. POWER RANKINGS: TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP Tabulation of FedExCup points ended at the BMW Championship, so only scores matters now. Starting Strokes was introduced at the TOUR Championship in 2019. It’s the compromise between rewarding bodies of work in the long- and short-term, and the promise to crown the winner of the tournament as the FedExCup champion. Unlike all other stroke-play competitions, the golfer with the lowest 72-hole aggregate at the TOUR Championship isn’t necessarily going to be the winner, but that’s how it worked out when Rory McIlroy captured the title in 2019. As the 5-seed, he opened at 5-under, and then scored 13-under (267). His 72-hole aggregate was three better than the second-lowest, but all that mattered was that his final score in relation to par of 18-under (5-under + 13-under) was the best in the field. In fact, the winner is determined on score in relation to par with Starting Strokes contributing, and that did matter in the second spin. Starting Strokes aided Dustin Johnson in emerging with his first FedExCup title last year. He opened at 10-under, shot 11-under during the tournament and posted 21-under for a three-stroke victory. However, his 72-hole aggregate was 269 was good for just T3 without Starting Strokes contributing. Xander Schauffele was lowest at 15-under 265 but opened at just 3-under as the 14-seed, so he settled for co-runner-up (with Justin Thomas) at 18-under. Unlike trends based on FedExCup points and positions, which are unique to every season, Starting Strokes has laid the foundation for an apples-to-apples comparison between TOUR Championships. Consider that in each of the first two editions, exactly six golfers seeded 12th or worse upon arrival finished inside the top 10 in relation to par at the conclusion of their respective events. (That’s a total of 12 among the combined 21 top 10s.) The highest climb to date belongs to 25-seed Chez Reavie in 2019. He opened at 1-under, shot 5-under and finished eighth at 6-under. Last year’s biggest riser was Tyrrell Hatton, who opened at 2-under as the 19-seed, and then shot 10-under for a combined 12-under and seventh place. Of course, movement occurs in the other direction as well. Coincidentally given Sunday’s duel, the top drops of the first two TOUR Championships with Starting Strokes were Cantlay (2019) and DeChambeau (2020). Cantlay opened as the 2-seed and finished T21. DeChambeau finished 22nd last year as the 8-seed. After the unknown of Caves Valley, the familiar backdrop of East Lake awaits. It remains a stock par 70 at 7,346 yards with bermudagrass greens ready to roll up to 13 feet on the Stimpmeter. Primary rough again is 2½ inches high. Essentially, for the 28 who have given it a go here before, it’s an open-book examination. Yes, that means that debutants 10-seed Sam Burns and 27-seed Erik van Rooyen are cramming, but they aced the first two tests, anyway. After East Lake held up for a historically average 70.033 in 2019, it proved to be vulnerable last year at 68.917. It was its lowest scoring average since 2007, the last edition before Rees Jones’ second of three renovations to the course. (Course scoring averages are not influenced by Starting Strokes.) Despite that dip, because the course is the same, the objective is the same – hit greens and sink putts. However, setting up scoring opportunities also remains the primary challenge. East Lake held firm in allowing a customary 11.6 GIR per round last year, 12th-lowest among all courses last season. Getting the ball onto the putting surfaces is harder than getting it into the hole. Last year’s field converted one-third of GIR into par breakers. That also aligns with recent history, but it connected in salvaging par 60.81 percent of the time, a record high at East Lake. The pair of par 5s – Nos. 6 and 18 – are most vulnerable and always have been. En route to his victory, DJ recorded six birdies and two pars on the set to rank T5 in par-5 scoring for the week. He also supported the theme of how the long game trumps the accurate at East Lake. He was T2 in distance of all drives but 28th in fairways split, yet still finished T5 in GIR, T11 in proximity to the hole and third in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. His putting was good enough to total 20 birdies against nine bogeys. What’s left on the backside of Hurricane Ida that will skirt northern Georgia will be long gone by the time the turf on the first tee box is pierced on Thursday. Outstanding conditions throughout the tournament will allow for East Lake to present as planned. Daytime temperatures will climb into the 80s and winds will be light. A few pillows passing in the sky won’t develop into anything. In addition to forever being known as the 15th FedExCup champion, the winner also will record an official victory and a five-year PGA TOUR membership exemption. By qualifying for the Playoffs finale, all 30 in the field receive exemptions into the 2022 editions of the Masters, U.S. Open and The Open Championship if not already eligible. All prize money distributed is unofficial but very real. The winner pockets $15 million. ROB BOLTON’S SCHEDULE PGATOUR.COM’s Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton recaps and previews every tournament from numerous angles. Look for his following contributions as scheduled. MONDAY: Power Rankings TUESDAY*: Fantasy Insider, Expert Picks SUNDAY: Qualifiers, Rookie Watch * – Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, which also publishes on Tuesday.
THE OVERVIEW The projected lowest number is 352. According to the PGA TOUR’s ShotLink team, that’s the minimum number of points needed after this week’s Wyndham Championship to make the 125-man field advancing to the FedExCup Playoffs. A year ago, the No. 125th player after Wyndham had 454 points. In 2015, it was 458 points. In 2014, it was 438 points. If the projections (the high-end projection is 363 points) hold after this week, 352 points is significantly lower than in recent years. In fact, it would be the lowest minimum points since 2011, when it took 334 points to make the Playoffs. Why the decrease? With FedExCup points now determining which players get their PGA TOUR cards, the FedExCup tie tables were adjusted this season in order to more closely align with the money list (which previously had been a determining card factor). The changes placed greater emphasis this season on high finishes, particularly top 10s – much like the standard purse breakdown. Theoretically, more points are now weighted at the top – and with four players winning three or more tournaments this season, that point distribution was weighted even more. Consider this: the top four in points going into Wyndham are Hideki Matsuyama (three wins), Justin Thomas (four wins), Jordan Spieth (three wins) and Dustin Johnson (three wins). They’ve combined for 10,694 points. A year ago, the top four in points going into Wyndham had a combined 9,500 points. By collecting nearly 1,200 more points, the top four have made the points list more top-heavy this season. Based on the 352 projection, that means 122 of the 125 players in points have already accumulated enough points to make the Playoffs – meaning that three spots are still up for grabs. The three players currently inside the top 125 who are not yet at 352 points are Seamus Power, Daniel Summerhays and Geoff Ogilvy. They are wearing the targets at Sedgefield that all others outside the top 125 now have their sights on. (Click here to see the live projected points standings). It’s the story within a story that makes the Wyndham Championship so intriguing each season. Sunday didn’t go the way he wanted at the PGA Championship. Hopefully he’ll focus on the positives from last week. His results on TOUR this season seem eerily similar to his results going into the 2015 Wyndham … which he won at age 51. His first win. His best major finish. It’s been quite a two weeks for Stroud, who’s reaping the benefits for his perseverance. THREE PLAYERS TO PONDER THE FLYOVER The 507-yard par-4 18th is the longest par-4 at Sedgefield; it was also the toughest hole on the course last year, playing to a stroke average of 0.301 strokes above par. That made it the sixth toughest closing hole on the PGA TOUR last season. Here’s an overview of the hole. THE LANDING ZONE The par-4 eighth is the easiest and shortest par-4 at Sedgefield, with a scorecard length of 374 yards. In two of the four rounds last year, the hole played at 351 yards. No player drove the green; the longest recorded drive was 318 yards. With a bunker guarding the left front of the green, and other bunkers along the fairway to the right of the landing zone, the play for most is to land short of the left bunker, leaving a short wedge shot. Players still have to guard against the creek running up the left side; 10 players took penalty strokes last year. Here’s a look at where all drives landed in 2016. WEATHER CHECK PGA TOUR meteorologist Stewart Williams says potential scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for Thursday. Added Williams: “Looks like an approaching cold front will keep the chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast Friday into Friday night. The front should slowly push to the south of the Triad on Saturday, decreasing our chances for thunderstorms as we go through the day. Partly cloudy skies can be expected on Sunday with highs in the upper 80s.â€� For the latest weather news in Greensboro, North Carolina, check out PGATOUR.COM’s Weather Hub. SOUND CHECK It’s a great course, a lot of character. You’ve got to hit a lot of different shots off the tees, into the greens, a lot of different clubs. I enjoy golf courses like that. ODDS AND ENDS 1. EASY GREENS. Last season, the greens at Sedgefield played as the second-easiest greens to hit from inside 125 yards of any course on TOUR. Players hit the green in 1,829 of 2,055 attempts (89 percent) from inside this distance. 2. 54-HOLE JINX. In the last 17 PGA TOUR events, the 54-hole leader has failed to convert that lead into victory a total of 15 times. The only player in that span to win after carrying the third-round lead is Jordan Spieth, who did it at both the Travelers Championship and The Open Championship. 3. TOP 5 OPPORTUNITY. Kevin Kisner, who at No. 9 is the highest-ranked FedExCup player in the field, is the only player who can move inside the top 5 should he win this week. 4. THREE OF 16. Of the 16 players who have qualified for the FedExCup Playoffs every year, three are in the Wyndham field – Bill Haas (34), Ryan Moore (67) and Luke Donald (105). All three are guaranteed a Playoffs spot for the 11th consecutive year.
