Tiger Woods has spent a lifetime preparing for this kind of pain

One of the resolute, perennial truths about THE PLAYERS Championship is its unpredictability. Since 2000, we've seen as many winners come from outside the top 50 in the Official World Golf Ranking as we have from the top five. Five of the last seven winners at TPC Sawgrass have ranked in the top 10 for the week in Strokes Gained: Approach, but Webb Simpson won in 2018 while ranked 62nd in that statistic. In 2019, Rory McIlroy won the championship while averaging 305 yards off the tee. Jim Furyk, the runner-up, was 34 yards behind him. All of which helps explain why nobody has ever won THE PLAYERS in consecutive years. Successfully defending any title on the PGA TOUR is fairly rare. In the 10 seasons from 2011 through 2020, there were 445 official events held on the TOUR. Only 13 times - or about one in every 34 tournaments - did a player go back-to-back at a particular event. THE PLAYERS was first held in 1974, and only two tournaments on the TOUR schedule have had longer droughts without a back-to-back winner. The Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club has not had a player win in consecutive years since Ben Hogan in 1952 and 1953. And the Wyndham Championship, which has been held at three different venues, has not had a player successfully defend since Sam Snead in 1956. So why has no player ever gone back-to-back at TPC Sawgrass? It's a difficult question to answer, but 15th Club combed through more than 16,000 rounds of historical data in an attempt to find out. Gaining Strokes in Different Ways Pete Dye's design gives players of all different skill sets scoring opportunities and distinct challenges all over the golf course. A look at the last two winners of THE PLAYERS explains that point perfectly. In 2018, Webb Simpson won his first PLAYERS title despite losing strokes to the field on approach shots. A staggering 95% of his strokes gained for the week came on shots around the green and on putts. Contrast that to the winning formula McIlroy utilized the following year, when 85% of his strokes gained came in the form of tee shots and approaches. He gained less than 5% of his strokes on the field with his putter, the lowest percentage of any PLAYERS champion the last 15 years. Those jumpy trends persist throughout recent history when analyzing PLAYERS champions. In 2018, Si Woo Kim gained more than 35% of his strokes over the field on tee shots. In 2007, though, Phil Mickelson actually lost strokes on his tee shots, but managed to win thanks to spectacular iron play. The last 15 champions here are also all over the map with performance on the greens; they have gained anywhere from 5% to 63% of their strokes with the putter. Let's compare that to THE PLAYERS' neighbor on both the map and the schedule, the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. While Bay Hill Club & Lodge provides a demanding test, the winning formula is more predictable. For example, eight of the last 10 winners, including Bryson DeChambeau last week, have ranked in the top 15 in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. Eight of the last 10 have also gained at least one stroke per round on their approach shots. Gaining strokes off the tee is typically not where players gain an advantage at Bay Hill, as nine of the last 11 winners gained anywhere from just 2% to 17% of their strokes with driver. Trends like this are predictable at most TOUR venues, but not TPC Sawgrass. Not only has no player ever successfully defended his title at this event, it's been a while since one was even remotely close. The last defending champion to finish in the top 10 at THE PLAYERS was Adam Scott, 16 years ago. Since THE PLAYERS found its permanent home at TPC Sawgrass in 1982, more defending champs have missed the cut (seven) than finished in the top 10 (five). The statistics further explain the complicated genius behind the design of this golf course; TPC Sawgrass truly does not favor one specific type of player, but rather rewards the best overall performer in the field that particular week.

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THE OVERVIEW By Cameron Morfit, PGATOUR.COM Word to the wise in 2018: Keep an eye on Bryson DeChambeau, especially at the Masters. The 2015 U.S. Amateur and NCAA individual champion struggled at the beginning of last season, when he made just three cuts in his first 10 starts and experimented with side-saddle putting. Things began to improve when his father, John, received a long-awaited kidney transplant just before the Valspar Championship in March, and DeChambeau briefly rallied. Then he missed eight straight cuts through the U.S. Open.  Maybe it wasn’t such a great idea to play with the same length shaft in every club. Maybe DeChambeau wasn’t crazy like a fox. Maybe he was just crazy.   TOP 30 PLAYERS TO WATCH IN 2018: We’ll countdown our list with one new player each day in December. Click here for the published players. MORE: Top 30 explanation and schedule But a T26 at the Travelers Championship broke the streak, followed by two top-20s and his emotional win at the John Deere Classic. Told that the late Payne Stewart, who like DeChambeau went to SMU, also got his first TOUR win at the Deere, DeChambeau broke down.  So it hasn’t come easy. But now that his quirky approach has been validated, and his father is healthy, DeChambeau, the so-called “Mad Scientist,â€� can dedicate his considerable mental energies entirely to his game. He keeps track of his stats, paying special attention to Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, where he says, “I’m used to seeing it at plus 3 or 4.â€� As for the Masters, DeChambeau missed it last year but looked very comfortable at Augusta National in 2016, at least through 35 holes. He was 3-under and looking like he might be in the final pairing with leader Jordan Spieth the next day. Alas, DeChambeau hit his drive into a holly bush and made a triple-bogey 7 on the finishing hole. He eventually finished T21. That was then. This is now. Don’t bet against DeChambeau figuring it out.  Click here to follow Cameron on Twitter FEDEXCUP 2017-18 position: 38 Playoff appearances: 1 TOUR Championship appearances: 0 Best result: 49th (2017) BY THE NUMBERS INSIGHTS FROM OUR INSIDERS PGATOUR.COM’s Insiders offer their expert views on what to expect from Bryson DeChambeau in 2018. TOUR INSIDER by Ben Everill When you spend time with this guy, sometimes you don’t know whether he’s pulling your leg or if the avalanche of information he’s feeding you is legitimate. But here’s the thing – he believes every thing he says. And he can make you believe it to. To DeChambeau, golf is melding the worlds of science and art and he’s dedicated to the pursuit of perfection. I was not a believer at first, but I saw first-hand what he could do when he won the John Deere Classic. Now I’m onboard. His approach is clearly not for everyone, but it works for him, and that makes it right. Click here to follow Ben on Twitter FANTASY INSIDER by Rob Bolton He presented more inspiration as a compelling, feel-good story going about it his own way than he does a fantasy investment on a weekly basis. However, he’s already taken aim at that narrative with a superb start this fall. The second-year PGA TOUR member knows exactly who he is at just 24 years of age, so gamers need to keep up. With essentially a free season in which to explore even further (because he’s fully exempt through 2018-19), the former physics major at SMU could deke everyone and stick with what works. Because it does. This lifts him into position as a dangerous contrarian in DFS. Click here to follow Rob on Twitter EQUIPMENT INSIDER by Jonathan Wall Currently testing Cobra’s latest King F8 lineup for 2018. Already has F8+ driver dialed-in. Added a single-length version of Cobra’s King utility iron to the top of his King Forged One Length set just before his win at the John Deere Classic. Sik putter has a Matrix U11-PO prototype graphite shaft that, according to DeChambeau, delivers an optimal feel and consistent roll. Click here to follow Jonathan on Twitter STYLE INSIDER by Greg Monteforte Not many players on the PGA TOUR have a signature look, but DeChambeau’s old-school Hogan cap has made him one of the most recognizable players out there. Not since Payne Stewart has a player rocked this style of lid as effectively as Bryson has. Look for him to continue his juxtaposition of styles as he pairs athletic apparel and footwear with this vintage cap. Click here to follow Greg on Twitter

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