Three overlooked takeaways from the Players Championship
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2022 3M Open, Round 1 Scoring Conditions: Overall: +1.84 strokes per round Morning wave: +1.67 Afternoon wave: +2.01 Current cutline (top 65 and ties): 72 players at +1 or better (T51) Top 3 projected cutline probabilities: 1. 1 over par: 39.8% 2. Even par: 33.3% 3. 2 over par: 15.2% Top 10 win probabilities: 1. Sungjae Im (T1, -6, 25.6%) 2. Tony Finau (T3, -4, 13.4%) 3. Adam Hadwin (T8, -3, 5.6%) 4. Tom Hoge (T3, -4, 5.3%) 5. Scott Piercy (T1, -6, 5.1%) 6. Doug Ghim (T3, -4, 4.7%) 7. Emiliano Grillo (T3, -4, 4.7%) 8. Adam Long (T17, -2, 3.0%) 9. Brice Garnett (T3, -4, 2.6%) 10. C.T. Pan (T17, -2, 2.1%) NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the 3M Open, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.
Jordan Spieth will defend his title against a strong lineup that includes multiple other high-profile U.S. Open cuts, as the PGA TOUR travels some 100 miles north from testy Shinnecock Hills to a more birdie-friendly TPC River Highlands next week for the Travelers Championship. FedExCup titleholder Justin Thomas and Masters champion Patrick Reed also headline a field that features eight of the top 15 in the world rankings. U.S. Ryder Cup captain Jim Furyk will also return to the site where he carded the TOUR’s first 58 just two years ago. FIELD NOTES Bubba Watson, a two-time winner on Hartford’s outskirts, and THE PLAYERS Championship winner Webb Simpson also help bolter a post-Open lineup with 13 of the world’s top 30. Patrick Cantlay, whose 60 in the 2011 edition remains the lowest PGA TOUR round by an amateur, returns to River Highlands for the first time since 2014. He tied for 24th that year but missed two cuts in later visits. TPC River Highlands is set to welcome 50 players who teed it up at Shinnecock Hills this week. Hogan Award winner Doug Ghim, last year’s U.S. Amateur runner-up, makes his pro debut on a sponsor invite. Other exemptions went to former Illinois teammates Nick Hardy and Dylan Meyer. FEDEXCUP Winner receives 500 points. STORYLINES Spieth, Rory McIlroy and Jason Day all seek to bounce back after a rough two days at Shinnecock Hills. A bogey/bogey finish Friday kept Spieth from playing the weekend, while tough openers left McIlroy (80) and Day (79) unable to recover. Each of the past four Travelers winners have triumphed after competing in the U.S. Open, though Russell Knox’s 2016 win gets an asterisk. An Olympic shakeup that year moved the Travelers to August. Spieth has a chance to join Phil Mickelson (2001-02) as the only man to go back-to-back in Hartford. Just four New Englanders have won in Hartford, though two came back-to-back in 2005 (Brad Faxon) and 2006 (J.J. Henry). The others are Paul Azinger (1987, ’89) and Bob Toski (1953). Comedian George Lopez, ESPN’s Chris Berman and Boston sports legends Ray Allen (Celtics) and Tim Wakefield (Red Sox) top the marquee for the Wednesday celebrity pro-am. COURSE TPC River Highlands, 6,841 yards, par 70. Marking its 35th year as a PGA TOUR venue, the Pete Dye design overlooking the Connecticut River is the third course housed on the property dating back to 1928. Dye completely overhauled the footprint in 1982, and Bobby Weed provided an upgrade nine years later in consultation with former TOUR pros Roger Maltbie and Howard Twitty. Nos. 15-17 play around a four-acre lake, helping create a finish considered among the most thrilling on TOUR. River Highlands is the site of the TOUR’s only 58, when Jim Furyk reeled off 10 birdies and holed out for eagle at the par-4 No.3. 72-HOLE RECORD 258, Kenny Perry (2009). 18-HOLE RECORD 58, Jim Furyk (4th round, 2016). LAST YEAR Spieth’s first visit to River Highlands produced a highlight-reel finish last season, holing a bunker shot on the first hole of a playoff to dispatch Daniel Berger and celebrate with an emphatic shoulder bump with caddie Michael Greller. Unable to stave off Berger’s late charge in regulation, Spieth watched as his blast from 60 feet away dove into the cup on the second trip through No. 18. Berger nearly rendered the celebration premature when he just missed a 50-foot birdie try, but the FedEx St. Jude Classic winner came up shy in his bid to sandwich two wins around the U.S. Open. Berger forced the playoff with three birdies in the final six holes of regulation, erasing a three-shot deficit with a 3-under-par 67. Spieth became just the second man since World War II to collect 10 PGA TOUR victories before turning 24, taking up company with Tiger Woods (15 wins). HOW TO FOLLOW TELEVISION: Thursday-Friday, 3:30-6:30 p.m. ET (Golf Channel). Saturday-Sunday, 1-2:45 p.m. (GC), 3-6 p.m. (CBS). PGA TOUR LIVE: Thursday-Friday, 7 a.m.-3:30 p.m. (featured groups), 3:30-6:30 p.m. (featured holes). Saturday-Sunday, 10 a.m.-6 p.m. (featured holes). RADIO: Thursday-Friday, noon-6:30 p.m.; Saturday-Sunday, 1-6 p.m. (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com).
SOUTHPORT, England – Rory McIlroy, the reigning FedExCup champion, is not the favorite this week to win the Open Championship. The latest odds in the UK have him 20 to 1, well below a handful of notable names. “Good time to back me,â€� the confident McIlroy insisted Wednesday. Yet McIlroy, the 2014 Open winner at nearby Royal Liverpool, understands why he’s not a more popular pick. He’s battled rib injuries that sidelined him earlier this year, and also took time off to get married. He comes into this week having missed the cut in his last two starts, including the Irish Open two weeks ago hosted by his foundation. He’s not the only big name teeing off Thursday with questionable form. FedExCup points leader and world No. 1 Dustin Johnson also has missed the cut in his last two starts. Same for Jason Day. In fact, Day has missed three cuts in his last dozen starts in 2017; he had missed four in the previous four years combined. While other notables such as Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka and Jon Rahm – as well as last week’s John Deere Classic winner, Bryson DeChambeau — enter the Open having won in their last starts respectively, McIlroy, Johnson and Day come in on an opposite (and less encouraging) track. Missed cuts, no momentum, and questions – perhaps even concerns — about their chances. Day pulled no punches Wednesday about his season to date. “I’m disappointed in my game,â€� he said. Perhaps Royal Birkdale will prove to be a turning point for all three. Asked this week if there was any significance in entering the Open off a win while Day, Johnson and McIlroy enter off multiple missed cuts, Spieth replied: “Form is very important, but I think in a tournament like this, it’s a great way for players who are not necessarily in form to come in and steal a win. With these conditions, you just throw out the way you’ve been playing because the shots are so different than what we normally see. “Sure, form matters, especially around the greens, but I wouldn’t be surprised if any of those guys are in contention. It’s a good tournament to get back in shape.â€� McIlroy readily agrees. Despite his inconsistent results and reduced starts and limited practice, he doesn’t feel his form is that far off. He likes what he’s seen on the range, and he knows he’s the type of player who can flip the switch in a hurry. In 2012, he went through a five-start stretch in the middle of the season in which he missed four cuts, then finished T-60 at the Open. A month later, he won the PGA Championship, soon followed by two wins in the FedExCup Playoffs. “Obviously it’s been hard to get any sort of momentum with an injury and not being able to practice as much as you’d like,â€� McIlroy said. “But I’m in good spirits. I feel like it’s all coming together. I’m just waiting for that round or that moment or that week where it sort of clicks and I’ll be off and running. “I’ve have little periods like this before in my career, and I’ve been able to bounce back from them. I’d say I was in worse positions than this. … The pieces are all there. It’s just about trying to fit them together.â€� No one had better form two months ago than Johnson. He had won three consecutive starts going into the Masters, and was the favorite to win his second major. But he slipped on a staircase at his rental home in Augusta the day before the tournament, injured his back and was unable to play. When he returned in early May, Johnson seemed back in form, nabbing a tie for second at the Wells Fargo Championship. But after two more top-15 finishes – including a T12 at THE PLAYERS – Johnson missed consecutive cuts for the first time in four years. On the positive side, he and fiancée Paulina Gretzky welcomed their second child, a boy they named River. The family remained back in the U.S. this week, and Johnson said that mother and child are both healthy and doing fine. “Definitely the second one is easier than the first one,â€� Johnson said. “Not quite as nervous when you’re bringing them home from the hospital.â€� Johnson also isn’t nervous about his golf game. Putting was the main antagonist in his two missed cuts – he blamed himself for spending more practice time on his swing and less on his short game when he returned to action following his injury – but he has recently seen encouraging signs. “The putter feels good,â€� he said. “I’m starting to roll it a lot better, and got a lot of confidence in it. Everything is feeling pretty good right now.â€� Day, though, can’t say the same. He has just two top-10 finishes going back to last year’s FedExCup Playoffs. He cited burnout at the end of 2016, as well as a nagging back that knocked him out of the last two Playoffs events. Then there was the cancer concerns with his mother earlier this year, as well as trying to find the balance between his life as a dad – which he loves – while trying to maintain the desire he displayed in reaching world No. 1. “Everything seems like it’s kind of coming back into balance for me,â€� Day said. “And I’m able to focus on just really getting after it and working hard and trying to really pinpoint what has been going wrong in my game.â€� Which, according to Day, is pretty much everything. “If you take my years 2015 and 2016, I hit it long and straight, straightish. I hit my iron shots a lot closer and I holed everything on the greens,â€� he said. “And this year it’s not as long, it’s not as straight. My iron shots aren’t as close, and I’m not holing as many putts. So it’s a perfect formula for not having a good year.â€� As if those things weren’t enough, Day was delayed last week in getting to England and starting his preparations. He had hoped to fly out Saturday night and arrive on Sunday. But his connection out of JFK airport in New York was delayed, he said, due to President Trump, who was attending the U.S. Women’s Open at Trump National. So he readjusted his schedule, flew out Sunday night, arrived on Monday and didn’t get onto the course until Tuesday when he played 18 holes. It’s not the first time a sitting President has interfered with Day’s travel plans. “President Obama held me up one time flying out of Palm Springs,â€� Day said. “So I understand. It is what it is.â€� Any delays returning home next week shouldn’t be nearly as frustrating – especially if the Claret Jug is in the overhead compartment.
