This one’s for you, Arnie: McIlroy ends long drought on tourney named after The King

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The Florida Swing is in full effect and Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club and Lodge is the next challenge, the second of four consecutive weeks in the Sunshine State. An invitational field of 123 will try to tame The King’s Par-72, 7,466 yard playground as Bay Hill hosts for the 43rd time. RELATED: Power Rankings | Expert Picks | The First Look Dick Wilson laid out the original in 1961 but Palmer started the major renovations in 2009 and regrassed all of the greens with TifEagle Bermuda in 2015. Those massive greens average 7,500 square feet, 1,500 square feet larger than last week at The Concession. Prepped to run 12 feet, the flat stick will definitely have a say in who takes home the biggest prize. Big targets off the tee and into the green reward those who find the short grass. Missing those large targets will come with large penalties, including 84 bunkers and water in play on half of the course. Keeping it off the beach and out of the drink isn’t as easy as it sounds with three inches of over-seeded Bermuda rough. The invitational field, similarly to Genesis, will enjoy an elevated prize pool of $9.3 million with the winner taking home $1.674 million and 550 FedExCup points plus a three year exemption. Even though the field is reduced, the top 65 and ties will need to qualify to play the weekend. The weather forecast this week is a mixed bag, especially on the weekend. Keep an eye on it moving forward because if the wind is up, this place will show all of its teeth! Recent Event Winners Stats 2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-4, 284) Picked up his first TOUR win in his 60th start as he won by one. … Didn’t break 73 on the weekend but won by a shot. … Led by two after Saturday, his first 54-hole lead on TOUR. … Shared the 36-hole lead for the first time on TOUR. … Entered the week leading the TOUR in Strokes-Gained: Approach the Green. … Becomes the fifth consecutive international champion. … Of the last 15 victors, nine are internationals. … Fifth consecutive winner T4 or better Par-3 scoring. … First Englishman to win. … First on TOUR since Geoff Ogilvy (2006 U.S. Open) to play BOTH rounds on the weekend over-par and win. … Won in his fourth attempt. … T6 in his previous start on TOUR (WGC-Mexico Championship). … Picked up T4 in his debut here in 2017. Notables: 2107 champ Marc Leishman (2nd) beat Hatton by a shot on Sunday. … Sungjae Im (3rd) winner the previous week at Honda bettered his 2019 debut (T3). … Bryson DeChambeau (4th) was the only other player under-par for the week. … Joel Dahmen (T5) MC in perfect weather in 2019. … Danny Lee (T5) cashed his best finish in his eighth start. … 2018 winner Rory McIlroy (T5) began the final round just two back but signed for 76. … Keith Mitchell (T5) cashed his second consecutive T6 paycheck. … 2019 runner-up Matthew Fitzpatrick (T9) was the only player on THE WEEKEND to post a number in the 60s (69). … Sung Kang (T9) shared the 36 hole lead before 78-74 on the weekend. … Harris English (T9) cashed his best payday in his ninth start. … Only 10 rounds under par on Sunday. … 2016 winner Jason Day (WD) is one of two players (Fred Couples) to go wire-to-wire. … The last champion to defend, Matt Every 2014-15, opened with 65 to lead after Round 1 but shot 83 (MC) in Round 2. … Hardest course on TOUR in 2020, including majors, as it played 2.106 shots over par. … Saturday played 3.913 shots over par. … Wind gusts played havoc all week, just four bogey-free rounds. 2019: Francesco Molinari (-12, 276) Closed with bogey-free 64 to win by two. … Sat five back after 54 holes. … Posted the low round of the week in Round 4. … Won in his seventh attempt. … Never MC in seven tries. … Led the field Strokes-Gained: Off the Tee. … 51-under lifetime at Bay Hill. … Made an ace in Round 1. … Only made two bogeys on the weekend. … Picked up his third win in last 12 TOUR starts. Notables: Matthew Fitzpatrick (2nd) led by one after 54 holes and was the first round leader in 2017. … Tommy Fleetwood (T3) was the 36-hole co-leader by four. … Sungjae Im (T3) posted all four rounds under-par on debut. … Sung Kang (T6) picked up his first of two consecutive top 10 finishes. … Rory McIlroy (T6) began Round 4 just one back. … Keith Mitchell (T6) won The Honda Classic the previous week and led the field in birdies with 21. … Englishman Matt Wallace (T6) posted all four rounds in the red on debut. … Byeong Hun-An (T10) improved on T14 from 2018. … Luke List (T10) backed up his T7 from 2018. … Adam Long (T10) played the weekend 69-67 on debut. … Cut was 1-over 145. … Wind didn’t factor. … Only nine bogey free rounds. 2018: Rory McIlroy (-18, 270) Started the two year trend of posting bogey-free 64 on Sunday. … Won by three for his 14th TOUR victory. … Began the final round two back. … Posted his career best Strokes-Gained: Putting. … Only needed 100 putts. … 54 from 54 inside seven feet. … Won in his fourth attempt. … Best US result entering the week was T20. … MC week prior at Valspar. … On a Bay Hill run of T6 or better in his last four visits. Notables: Bryson DeChambeau (2nd) shared the 36-hole lead and played in the final group. … Justin Rose (3rd) led the field with 24 birdies. … Orlando resident Henrik Stenson (4th) led or co-led after 18, 36 and 54 holes. … 2017 winner Marc Leishman (T7) closed with 67 in his defense. … Patrick Reed (T7) posted 22 birdies, T2 behind Rose. … Patrick Rodgers (T7) closed 68-69. … Played the easiest of the three years at 72.023. … 14 bogey free rounds. … Talor Gooch (T26) and Aaron Wise (T41) both opened with 65 on their debuts. … Last first-timer to win here was Matt Every in 2014. … Cut was 1-over 145. Key stat leaders Top golfers in each statistic on the 2019-2020 PGA TOUR are listed only if they are scheduled to compete this week. * – Top 10 finish here since 2016 Horses for Courses

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2021 Valero Texas Open, Round 1 Scoring Conditions: Overall: +1.37 strokes per round Morning wave: +1.63 Afternoon wave: +1.11 Current cutline (top 65 and ties) 79 players at +1 or better (T57) Top 3 projected cutline probabilities: 1. 2 over par: 41.0% 2. 1 over par: 30.5% 3. 3 over par: 17.9% Top 10 win probabilities: 1. Cameron Tringale (T2, -6, 18.1%) 2. Hideki Matsuyama (T4, -5, 14.5%) 3. Jordan Spieth (T4, -5, 10.1%) 4. Scottie Scheffler (T7, -4, 9.9%) 5. Camilo Villegas (1, -8, 7.8%) 6. Sebastian Munoz (T7, -4, 4.9%) 7. Seung-Yul Noh (T4, -5, 2.4%) 8. Tom Hoge (T7, -4, 2.3%) 9. Matt Kuchar (T13, -2, 1.9%) 10. Matt Wallace (T10, -3, 1.8%) NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live "Make Cut", "Top 20", "Top 5", and "Win" probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Valero Texas Open, or to see how each golfer's probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model's home page.

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