The First Look: Waste Management Phoenix Open

2022 World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba, Round 1 Scoring Conditions: Overall: -1.72 strokes per round Morning wave: -2.21 Afternoon wave: -1.23 Current cutline (top 65 and ties): 77 players at -2 or better (T57) Top 3 projected cutline probabilities: 1. 4 under par: 37.3% 2. 3 under par: 35.9% 3. 5 under par: 13.7% Top 10 win probabilities: 1. Aaron Wise (2, -8, 10.5%) 2. Billy Horschel (T3, -7, 8.6%) 3. Sergio Garcia (T3, -7, 7.4%) 4. Russell Henley (T7, -6, 7.2%) 5. Matthew Wolff (1, -10, 6.4%) 6. Talor Gooch (T3, -7, 6.3%) 7. Chris Kirk (T3, -7, 4.9%) 8. Viktor Hovland (T20, -4, 4.1%) 9. Joel Dahmen (T7, -6, 3.7%) 10. Abraham Ancer (T36, -3, 3.0%) NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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Sometimes, no matter the motivation, you just need to go for it. Suffice it to say that the inaugural edition of the Zurich Classic of New Orleans as a two-man team competition found the target in 2017. The reaction from the 160-man field was overly positive and Kevin Kisner’s eagle on the last hole of regulation to force a playoff gave the new format its first “moment.” Not too shabby. This year’s groundbreaking introduction at TPC Louisiana is walk-up music chosen by each of the 80 teams. It’s optional, but given the love affair that most (all?) golfers have with other sports in which it’s a constant if not an expectation, and with the tournament’s unique exploration to attract talent and fans, any usual respectful greetings and applause sans tuneage on the opening tees might seem out of place this week. Once again, there are fascinating connections among the commitments. I’ve segregated 10 with intrigue. Scroll beneath the ranking for five others considered as well as more on the format and the host course. POWER RANKINGS: ZURICH CLASSIC OTHERS CONSIDERED Daniel Berger & Gary Woodland Jason Dufner & Pat Perez Rafa Cabrera Bello & Sergio Garcia Russell Knox & Martin Laird Louis Oosthuizen & Charl Schwartzel PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO omits the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, so Tuesday’s Fantasy Insider will be presented in an abridged format. In last year’s foray and in less-than-ideal conditions during the last three rounds, Jonas Blixt and Cameron Smith prevailed in a four-hole playoff with Kisner and Scott Brown. Both teams hung up 27-under 261s after two rounds each of alternate shot and best ball. The winners were the only duo in the field without a bogey or worse on their card. They set the bar. Tournament organizers have reversed the alternating order of play this year. Rounds 1 and 3 will be best ball, while alternate shot will be used for Rounds 2 and 4. The low 35 teams and ties at the conclusion of 36 holes will survive the cut. Unlike last year, the secondary (MDF) cut no longer applies. Per standard membership provisions, both winners will receive two-year PGA TOUR exemptions or the customary one-year extension in fully exempt status (not to exceed five years beyond this season) if already exempt through 2019-2020. The winners will also receive berths into THE PLAYERS, PGA Championship and all remaining invitationals this season. They’ll also gain entry into the 2019 Sentry Tournament of Champions at Kapalua. FedExCup points and earnings will be distributed just as ties for any place in the final standings are currently determined. The winners will share first- and second-place values and receive 400 FedExCup points and $1,036,800 apiece. Because of the format, Official World Golf Ranking points are not rewarded. This means that the Zurich Classic of New Orleans essentially is a free play from contributing to one’s divisor. If there was a common thread among the winners and contenders at TPC Louisiana last year, it was variety. All shapes and sizes were represented on the final leaderboard, and that’s exactly what any tournament and every golfer wants. The par-72 stretching 7,425 yards is inviting off the tee. Precision on approach is rewarded properly on greens averaging just 5,225 square feet because they’re segmented with undulations that must be respected. The longest rough is trimmed to two inches. Prepped to run at 12 feet on the Stimpmeter because persistent rainfall often assists in pumping the brakes, the overseeded bermuda greens actually might touch that goal this week. The only reasonable threat for inclement weather is forecast for Thursday’s opening round. Thereafter, drier air will take hold. Daytime highs might not reach 80 degrees and wind is not expected to be a factor throughout. It’s going to be beautiful. In benign conditions, 30 under par cannot be ruled out in this format. All members of the teams that finish inside the top five in the tournament will earn exemptions into next week’s Wells Fargo Championship if not already eligible to compete. ROB BOLTON’S SCHEDULE PGATOUR.COM’s Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton covers numerous angles in between tournaments. Look for his following contributions this week. MONDAY: Rookie Ranking, Qualifiers, Reshuffle, Medical Extensions, Power Rankings TUESDAY*: Sleepers, Facebook Live, Fantasy Insider WEDNESDAY: One & Done * – Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO, which also publishes on Tuesdays.

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It’s that time of year again, when you turn on the TV for the Sentry Tournament of Champions and ask yourself, “Why did I go another year without booking a trip to Kapalua?” The PGA TOUR’s 2022 winners and those who finished in the top 30 of the FedExCup will open the year in the first of the new designated events that will feature the game’s top players competing for elevated purses. Kapalua has become known for its scenic vistas, low scores and wild finishes. A big reason for the theatrics? The uniqueness of the venue. The Plantation Course is not your everyday TOUR layout. Severe elevation changes and dramatic slopes make for an unpredictable four days in paradise. This course was the firstfruits of the famous design partnership between Bill Coore and two-time Masters champion Ben Crenshaw, and it is celebrating its 25th time hosting the Sentry Tournament of Champions. To mark this milestone, and the debut of a new era for the PGA TOUR’s schedule, here are five things to know about the venue where the PGA TOUR annually celebrates the New Year. 1. SEVENTY-THREE’S COMPANY Ernie Els won at 31 under in 2003, and Jordan Spieth nearly caught him with a winning score of 30 under in 2016. Last year saw the lowest score in relation to par in the TOUR’s history (34 under). These scores for a four-round event may seem crazy until you check the scorecard. Kapalua is the only par-73 course on the PGA TOUR schedule, as it comes with just three par 3s. The long holes are long and the short holes are short. The course has seven holes that regularly play longer than 500 yards – four of those are par 5s – but also has four par 4s playing shorter than 400 yards (all on the back nine). Weather, especially the wind, is often a factor in Maui, but players making the trip to the South Pacific better be ready to make some birdies. 2. EXCITING FINISH From the tee box, the 18th hole provides one of the most beautiful vistas in golf, looking straight down into the Pacific Ocean with mountains in the distance. But the journey, more than one-third of a mile when played at its longest, brings danger into play. The par 5 can stretch all the way to 667 yards, making it one of the TOUR’s longest holes. With a wide fairway, players can take a rip off the tee but need to catch some help from a ridge if they want to attack in two. It is site of the first 400-yard drive in TOUR history. Jonathan Byrd hit it in first round of the 2003 tournament. The fairway slants sharply from right to left, and players often use those contours to feed their second shots onto the green, as well. It’s the safer route, as the entire left side of the hole is lined by a penalty area full of thick vegetation. The green also is guarded on the left by bunkers that penalize any misses short or left, especially to the left-side hole locations. Justin Thomas found the hazard in 2020 and made a bogey to fall into a playoff with Patrick Reed and Xander Schauffele, which Thomas eventually won after playing No. 18 three more times. A more conservative second shot is directed out to the right, where the contours will guide the ball back toward the green upon landing. However, if the ball does not get a kick, a downhill pitch shot awaits. While having a par-5 as the 18th hole seems like an obvious birdie opportunity to finish each round, the 600-plus-yard gauntlet also provides a long strip of danger en route to the clubhouse. Birdie is manageable. Eagle is feasible, but risky. 3. RENOVATION PROJECT When the Plantation Course opened in 1992, Coore and Crenshaw made sure to use the West Maui Mountains and Pacific Ocean for stunning views on every hole. Those features won’t change, at least for a few thousand years. But the course’s firmness had decreased at a much faster rate and required a fix after almost three decades of existence. “Years ago, you would hit a tee shot and it would chase and chase and chase unbelievable distances. But as the grass grew and grew for 30 years, a lot of that element was lost,” Coore said before the 2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions. “The course had gotten so soft that it was easy pickin’s for TOUR players and really long for resort players.” In 2019, 100 acres of the Plantation Course’s fairways were stripped and regrassed with a new surface: Celebration Bermudagrass, a denser playing turf than the original Bermuda. This surface could be mowed tighter and controlled against year-round trampling. “The idea at Kapalua always was to land a shot 60 yards short of a green and let it roll on,” Coore said in 2020. “In recent years, a ball landing 20 yards short of a green would just stop. It will play differently. … Players will be able to use side-slopes to feed shots to a flag. And drives will roll out farther, sometimes closer to trouble.” The greens, which had shrunk over almost three decades, were expanded closer to their original sizes. “There’s no question our greens needed a little more calming to offer some more pin positions,” Crenshaw said. 4. STEEP SLOPES Most tourists may come to Maui for the beach. TOUR players come for the elevation. The Plantation Course reaches a high point of 510 feet and spans 316 acres of property. The following week’s Sony Open at Waialae Country Club on Oahu will peak at roughly 10 feet of elevation change on a 120-acre property. The Kapalua Golf website embraces the elevation change by noting, “This course offers plenty of downhill tee shots. You’ll feel like one of the pros when – with the aid of the aggressive slope of the 18th fairway – you will enjoy hitting one of the longest drives of your life.” While most holes feature ocean views, there is no water on the course. However, various canyons, including the notorious penalty area on 18, provide potential trouble. Mountains, not water, define Kapalua. The steep slopes mean the scorecard doesn’t tell the entire story. Holes can play much longer, or shorter, than advertised. Take, for example the 550-yard 17th and 541-yard 15th. The former is a par-4, while the latter is a par-5. The first and eighth holes are two more downhill par-4s that stretch longer than 500 yards. 5. QUARTER CENTURY The 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions marks the 25th time Kapalua is hosting the Sentry Tournament of Champions. It saw some dramatic finishes right from the start. David Duval won the first Sentry at Kapalua during a hot streak that saw him supplant Tiger Woods atop the world ranking. Duval won by nine – the largest winning margin at Kapalua – then shot a final-round 59 to win The American Express in his next start. He won THE PLAYERS two months later. The next year, Tiger Woods and Ernie Els engaged in a memorable duel that set the stage for Woods’ greatest season. They matched eagles on the 72nd hole to go into a playoff, which Woods won with a 40-foot birdie putt on the second extra hole. He went on to win three majors that year and Els was runner-up in two, albeit 15 shots behind Woods at the U.S. Open and eight behind him at The Open. Jordan Spieth followed up his incredible 2015 – in which he won two majors and the FedExCup – with an eight-shot win in the 2016 Sentry. The next year, Justin Thomas swept the Hawaiian events, winning the Sentry Tournament of Champions and Sony Open. He won the Sentry by three before shooting a first-round 59 at the Sony en route to a seven-shot win. Thomas went on to win that year’s FedExCup and his first major at the PGA Championship. Two years later, Xander Schauffele shot a final-round 62 to rally from five shots back and win his third PGA TOUR title. It is the lowest final-round score by a winner at Kapalua. Thomas, who won the Sentry again in 2020, and Jon Rahm then became the first players to shoot 61 at the Plantation Course, doing so in the third round last year.

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