The First Look: The Open Championship

It is a star-studded first page of the leaderboard through two rounds at the BMW Championship. This should come as no surprise to anyone, given the strength of this field. Here are the top 10 win probabilities according to our model: Rose and Schauffele lead the way with 16 and 15 percent chances of winning, respectively. The model estimates Rose to be about 1 stroke better per round than Schauffele, and therefore we expect Rose to cover the 2 stroke deficit he currently faces. Sitting just outside this top 10 is Tiger Woods, who we estimate to have a 2.9 percent chance at victory. It is likely surprising to many readers that our model is giving Finau a slightly higher win probability than Woods. However, take a look at their respective finish probabilities for a Top 20 and Top 5 finish: Tiger has a significantly higher probability of finishing in the top 20 than Finau. Our model actually rates Tiger slightly better than Finau in terms of expected score, but Tiger has been incredibly consistent this year (i.e. he has had a low standard deviation in scores). As a result, the model gives Tiger slightly less upside than Finau. It’s worth noting that we don’t allow for big differences across players in their predicted standard deviations (because past standard deviation only weakly predicts future standard deviation), but Woods has been a big outlier over the past year. Finally, here is a strokes-gained breakdown of Tiger’s round on Friday: It was an abysmal day on the greens for Woods; he finished last in the field of 69 on Friday in strokes-gained: putting. Despite the disappointing second round, Woods is still in excellent shape to advance to the season-ending TOUR Championship: our model estimates his chances at 97 percent. NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of The BMW Championship, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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Some of Tiger Woods’ most indelible career highlights have come at Pebble Beach. Now he’s planning on adding another, but with blueprints and bulldozers, not his golf clubs. Woods’ design company, TGR Design, and the Pebble Beach Company have announced plans for a reimagined short-course facility at Pebble, which will include a nine-hole par-3 short course, a putting course, and an indoor/outdoor food and beverage venue. “Everyone who plays this golf course is going to enjoy the playability of it,� said Woods, who has 82 career PGA TOUR victories. “Golfers will have the choice to play nearly any club off most tees and around the greens, which will make them think and channel their creativity. It will also play differently from day to day depending on the tee and hole locations and wind direction. It’s going to be a lot of fun. I can’t wait to play it.� Woods won the 2000 U.S. Open by 15 strokes at Pebble Beach. Earlier that year he overcame a seven-shot deficit in nine holes to beat Matt Gogel at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He has plenty of fond memories there. The new short-course facility on the former site of the Peter Hay Golf Course, located directly between the Pebble Beach Pro Shop and Golf Academy, will feature one of the resort’s most stunning views. The new facility will also feature: • A short course comprised of nine par-3 holes ranging in length from 47 to 106 yards and measuring 670 yards in total • A 20,000-square-foot putting course that can be set up in a variety of different hole and routing combinations • A 5,000-square-foot food and beverage venue featuring a full kitchen and bar, indoor seating, and the resort’s largest outdoor patio positioned for expansive views of the short course, putting course, Carmel Bay, and Point Lobos “We are thrilled to elevate the quality of our short course to a level consistent with our other world-class golf courses,� said Bill Perocchi, Chief Executive Officer of Pebble Beach Company. “You can see the genius of Tiger Woods and TGR Design come to life when you walk the site, the way it all fits together. I expect all aspects of this new facility will be very popular for junior golf events, resort golfers, outings, resident hang-outs, and everything in between.� Woods has reoriented the routing to better capture the views, with four holes now playing directly toward Carmel Bay. He also aligned each hole’s yardage to correspond with a significant year in Pebble Beach history, with accompanying plaques on each tee telling a story and creating the sense guests are walking amongst Pebble’s rich championship heritage. The course’s second hole will be an exact replica of the famous par-3 seventh at Pebble Beach Golf Links. “Pebble Beach is such an iconic golf destination,� Woods said, “we want guests to feel the entirety of that spirit when they play this course. We also know not everyone who comes to Pebble Beach will have a chance to play the U.S. Open course, so we wanted to create the opportunity for all visitors to experience one of its most famous holes.� The grand opening is scheduled for the spring of 2021.

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Casey rejoins European Tour, eyes Ryder return

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