The First Look: THE NORTHERN TRUST

2021 Bermuda Championship, Round 1 Scoring Conditions: Overall: -1.03 strokes per round Morning wave: -0.94 Afternoon wave: -1.12 Current cutline (top 65 and ties): 79 players at -1 or better (T64) Top 3 projected cutline probabilities: 1. 3 under par: 40.6% 2. 2 under par: 31.1% 3. 4 under par: 17.7% Top 10 win probabilities: 1. Peter Malnati (1, -8, 10.8%) 2. Doc Redman (T4, -6, 9.1%) 3. Emiliano Grillo (T7, -5, 6.5%) 4. Doug Ghim (T2, -7, 5.8%) 5. Vaughn Taylor (T4, -6, 5.0%) 6. Ryan Armour (T2, -7, 4.9%) 7. Will Zalatoris (T46, -2, 3.4%) 8. Chase Seiffert (T4, -6, 3.1%) 9. Stewart Cink (T7, -5, 2.7%) 10. Wyndham Clark (T7, -5, 2.3%) NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live "Make Cut", "Top 20", "Top 5", and "Win" probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Bermuda Championship, or to see how each golfer's probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model's home page.

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A dozen tournaments into the 50-tournament Super Season, we're still a lot closer to the beginning than the end. Regardless, we've got enough information to guess which 30 players will qualify for the season-ending TOUR Championship at East Lake on Sept. 2-5, 2021. Eight of the 10 winners from the fall of 2019 went on to qualify for the most recent TOUR Championship, the most since the wraparound season began eight years ago. So, yeah, we'll go out on a limb and say Safeway Open champ Stewart Cink (fourth in the FedExCup standings) is going to make it back to East Lake for the first time since 2009. Could Jason Day, Brooks Koepka and/or Tiger Woods get back to the TOUR Championship? Yes, but chronic injuries make it too risky to put them on this list. Koepka looked especially improved in the fall with a T5 at the Vivint Houston Open and T7 at the Masters, but the fact remains those three are wildcards. So is Italy's Francesco Molinari, who just moved his family to America. Herewith, in no particular order, a fearless prediction for the last 30 men standing: 1. Dustin Johnson - The defending FedExCup champion leads the standings again going into the holiday break, and he may just extend his 252-point lead at the Sentry Tournament of Champions next month, as Johnson has twice won at Kapalua (2013, 18). 2. Bryson DeChambeau - He's second in the FedExCup standings after just three starts in the new season, including a six-shot runaway at the U.S. Open at Winged Foot. Setback at Masters, where long-ball approach yielded only a T34 finish, but Mad Scientist will be back. 3. Viktor Hovland - Clutch 72nd hole birdie netted him recent Mayakoba Golf Classic presented by UNIFIN. Two-time TOUR winner and pride of Norway is fast catching up to peers Matthew Wolff - Hovland's Oklahoma State teammate - and 2020's breakout star Collin Morikawa. 4. Stewart Cink - Was 144th in FedExCup last season and 179th in 2019. Seems like ages ago now that Cink, 47, is up to fourth in the standings after winning the Safeway Open to end an 11-year victory drought. Kept good times rolling at Sanderson Farms (T12) and Bermuda (T4) Championships. 5. Patrick Cantlay - Prevailed at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP @ SHERWOOD in thrilling finish that also included world-beaters Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas. Missed TOUR Championship last season but clearly has the all-around game to win the whole thing, not just make the field. 6. Rory McIlroy - Struggled after the break, but with wife Erica was keeping a secret - daughter Poppy was born the week of the TOUR Championship. Since then, he has racked up top-10 finishes at East Lake (T8), the U.S. Open (T8) and Masters (T5). 7. Carlos Ortiz - Cue the imminent TOUR Championship debut of Mexico's Ortiz, FedExCup No. 6, whose Vivint Houston Open victory was one of the feel-good stories of the fall. Korn Ferry Tour record shows he can string the wins together when he's feeling it. 8. Jason Kokrak - Victory at THE CJ CUP @ SHADOW CREEK was a long time coming (233rd career start) for this Vegas afficionado who turns into one of the game's elites when his putter is switched on. Currently third in Strokes Gained: Putting but 146th in SG: Approach the Green. 9. Justin Thomas - The 2017 FedExCup champion hasn't exactly lit it up in the new season but he has finished no worse than 12th in five starts, including the U.S. Open (T8) and Masters (4th). He'll start the new year ranked No. 8 in the standings. Watch out early as former Sentry TOC and Sony Open in Hawaii winner is a fast starter. 10. Matthew Wolff - Played himself into near exhaustion after the Return to Golf in June. Still chasing second TOUR win but showed consistency with runner-up finishes at Rocket Mortgage Classic, U.S. Open, Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. Up to ninth in FedExCup. 11. Sergio Garcia - Fell out of world top 50 and missed the FedExCup Playoffs for second time last season. Victory at Sanderson Farms Championship in October broke dry spell dating to 2017 Masters; is now up to FedExCup No. 10. Shame to miss Augusta with coronavirus in November. 12. Xander Schauffele - Hasn't won since 2019 Sentry Tournament of Champions but that didn't hold him back much in second-place FedExCup finish last season. Top-10 machine already has a fifth at the U.S. Open and runner-up at THE CJ CUP @ SHADOW CREEK this season. 13. Cameron Smith - Co-runner-up with Sungjae Im at the Masters in November, Smith, who will defend his first individual title at the upcoming Sony Open in Hawaii, is just starting to show how good he is after offering fleeting glimpses of potential in team events. 14. Justin Rose - His T3 at the Charles Schwab Challenge in June was a bright spot as coaching and equipment changes led him to finish an uncharacteristic 91st in the FedExCup. The 2018 FedExCup winner and a recent world No. 1 seems primed for a bounce-back year. 15. Cameron Champ - Struggled with inconsistency in rookie year on TOUR but was steadier last season from Safeway Open win all the way to T10 at PGA and 24th in FedExCup. Long driving impressed partner Tony Finau at recent QBE Shootout and is growing into game at 25. 16. Doc Redman - Up-and-comer was 71st in FedExCup last season but is up to 41st going into the break this season after T3 at the Safeway Open and T4 at the Bermuda Championship. Will be a young 23 to start 2021. Ranked 12th in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green last season. 17. Harris English - Slumped but is back in spotlight after bounce-back last season (12th in FedExCup). Already has a solo fourth at U.S. Open and three other top-10s this season, and with Matt Kuchar utterly dominated recent (unofficial) QBE Shootout with record 37 under. 18. Sungjae Im - Ironman with eight starts already this season nearly cashed in with T2 finish at recent Masters Tournament. Gearing up for title defense at The Honda Classic in early 2021. Could work on his short game at 234th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green. 19. Jon Rahm - Edged world No. 1 Dustin Johnson in wild finish at BMW Championship and was chasing another victory at ZOZO @ SHERWOOD (T2) until closing holes. World No. 2 contended at Masters (T7) in November but faded with 72-71 weekend. 20. Hideki Matsuyama - Five-time TOUR winner hasn't lifted a trophy since 2017 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational but seems to be on the rise after T13 at the Masters and T2 at the Vivint Houston Open. Still needs work on the greens at 158th in Strokes Gained: Putting. 21. Tyrrell Hatton - Taming temper and reached elite status with breakthrough TOUR win in challenging conditions at Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. Makes every swing count with six top-10s in 11 starts last season (seventh in FedExCup). 22. Tony Finau - Still looking for first victory since 2016 Puerto Rico Open; was on the verge of getting it until Webb Simpson birdied last two holes of regulation and beat him in a playoff at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Still growing into sizable game but will likely get there. 23. Scottie Scheffler - Consistent leaderboard presence is off to a poor start this season (92nd in the FedExCup) after getting the coronavirus and missing the U.S. Open. Showed plenty in '20 with seven top-10 finishes, run at PGA Championship, and fifth-place showing in FedExCup. 24. Webb Simpson - Won Waste Management Phoenix Open, RBC Heritage and led in scoring average (68.978) last season. His T8 at U.S. Open in September was best there since winning in 2012; also posted T10 at recent Masters. Aiming for fifth straight East Lake appearance. 25. Matthew Fitzpatrick - He's 108th in current FedExCup standings but coming off victory at the European Tour's season-ending DP World Tour Championship earlier this month. Third-place finish at Memorial and T6 at BMW attests to his toughness in difficult conditions. 26. Tommy Fleetwood - Third at The Honda Classic last season and collected six top-10s in 2019. Lackluster 2020 (92nd FedExCup) but not across pond; T3 at Portugal Masters, second at Scottish Open, and T13 at BMW PGA Championship, the European Tour's flagship event. 27. Patrick Reed - Won the WGC-Mexico Championship and registered top-15 finishes at PGA Championship, U.S. Open and Masters. Was aiming to become first American to win European Tour's Race to Dubai until two late bogeys at DP World Tour Championship (T3). 28. Abraham Ancer - Still aiming for first TOUR win after two runner-up finishes last season. Contended at recent Masters until final-round 76 dropped him to T13; that and T12 at Mayakoba showed TOUR Championship appearance and 18th in FedExCup last season was no fluke. 29. Daniel Berger - Underrated player is only 96th in the latest FedExCup standings. Was one of the hottest in the game over the second half of last season starting with win at Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial. Put him down for the U.S. Ryder Cup team while you're at it. 30. Collin Morikawa - Broke out with wild Workday Charity Open win over Justin Thomas. Hit perhaps shot of the year, driving the green on 16, in winning PGA Championship at TPC Harding Park. Admits to losing focus this season (124th in FedExCup), but it won't last.

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THE OVERVIEW AUSTIN, Texas — In Arizona, Dustin Johnson was a pushover. In Austin, he’s practically unbeatable. No player in this week’s World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play field has benefitted more from a change of scenery than the world’s No. 1 player. When the event was held in Dove Mountain outside Tucson, Johnson’s match record was 2-6, and he was ousted in the first round in four of his five appearances. The event was then played at TPC Harding Park in San Francisco in 2015, which was also the first year of the format change. Johnson did not advance out of group play. The next year, Austin Country Club became the home course, and Johnson immediately took a liking to the Hill Country layout. He advanced to the quarterfinals before losing to Louis Oosthuizen in 2016, a precursor to last year’s dominating performance in which he not only won the championship with seven match wins but never trailed at any time. Johnson, who held off Jon Rahm in a tough championship match a year ago, didn’t hesitate Tuesday when asked why his performances improved. “It had a lot to do with the golf course,â€� he said. “I don’t want to talk bad about any golf course, but it wasn’t my favorite place to play. It didn’t suit me very well.â€� Of course, Johnson’s game also was elevated in recent years, as he won his first major while reaching the top of the world standings. Given Johnson’s elite status and current form, perhaps Dove Mountain might not provide as much frustration now as it did then. Paul Casey – another player in great form right now – was asked if the feeling of uncomfortableness at a golf course can be reduced by being in good form. “Certainly less of a factor,â€� said Casey, recent winner of the Valspar Championship. “Maybe a nemesis hole you’ve never been able to figure out, suddenly you see a way. Or it bothers you less.â€� While Johnson has shown his ability to thrive in a match play environment, he doesn’t get caught up in the differences between this week’s format and a regular stroke-play event. In other words, he’s not fixating on his opponent, just his own game. “If you play well, usually that takes care of your opponent,â€� he said. “Obviously there are certain situations where you’re kind of just playing him. But for the most part, you’re out there just trying to make as low a score as you can on every hole.â€� If nothing else, Johnson knows what it takes to win at Austin Country Club. He’s hoping to follow the same gameplan this week.   THREE PLAYERS TO PONDER Dustin Johnson Defending champ has won at least one World Golf Championships event every year since 2014. Jason Day Didn’t get a legitimate chance to defend his 2016 title after withdrawing due to his mother’s health. Consider him the co-defending champ. Rory McIlroy Anybody else get the feeling that McIlroy’s win at Bay Hill might be the start of a big run for the next few weeks?   Three matches to ponder Wednesday: Tony Finau vs. Thomas Pieters. If the last two years are any indication, then Austin Country Club favors the big hitters. Finau and Pieters, part of Group 13, are two of the longest on the world stage. Thursday: Justin Thomas vs. Patton Kizzire. This Group 2 match pits the top two players in the FedExCup standings, as each already has won twice this PGA TOUR season. Thomas, the defending FedExCup champ and current leader, could also move to world No. 1 if he wins on Sunday. Friday: Jordan Spieth vs. Patrick Reed. Spieth joked on Tuesday there “might be some sort of rigging that’s going onâ€� in order to have Reed drawn into his Group 4. (Ah, the Patrick Ewing lottery conspiracy theory!). Safe to assume that for U.S. golf fans, this is the most anticipated group match of the week.   The Flyover Jordan Spieth calls the par-4 stretch of hole Nos. 13, 14 and 15 “the most pivotal holesâ€� at Austin Country Club this week. “That’s where the difference in the match happens,â€� Spieth added. The 317-yard 13th can be drivable and has played under par in the first two years. The 465-yard 14th and 440-yard 15th both played over par last year; the 14th was the most difficult hole on the back nine last year. “When you’re playing those three holes and playing them accordingly should put you at an advantage if you were to play them at par or better over your opponent,â€� Spieth said. The Landing Zone The 498-yard eighth hole is the longest par 4 at Austin Country Club, and consequently the most difficult par 4 on the course. It played to a stroke average of 4.283 last year. Players will favor going down the left side of the fairway to take advantage of the slope running to the right, but a long iron will still remain into a small green guarded by several pot bunkers. Weather check From PGA TOUR meteorologist Stewart Williams: “Showers and isolated t-storms will be likely through daybreak Wednesday morning as a cold front sweeps through the region. Skies will quickly clear with breezy and cooler conditions expected for the afternoon. Cooler and drier air continues Thursday and Friday with highs in the 60s each day. Warmer temperatures return Saturday with highs in the mid 70s. The next cold front appears to be slowing down and will likely bring showers and t-storms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.â€�   For the latest weather news from Austin, Texas, check out PGATOUR.COM’s Weather Hub. SOUND CHECK I could shoot 2 over every single round and win a WGC this week. There’s a luck of the draw to it.The margin around here is very small. You’re always 3 feet away from a glorious shot or a disaster. Thank god it’s match play because I wouldn’t want to play straight play around here. BY THE NUMBERS 85.7 – The career winning percentage of Jon Rahm (6-1) in the event, the best of anyone in the field. 62 – The lowest seed to ever win the tournament (Kevin Sutherland 2002) 18 – Number of different countries represented in the tournament. 112 – Amount of holes played by Dustin Johnson last year in winning the title. It was a record high equal to Louis Oosthuizen from 2016. SCATTERSHOTS Of the 96 matches set for the three days of group play, 19 of them pit American versus fellow American. Just three others match up non-U.S. players from the same country – Japan’s Hideki Matsuyama vs. Yusaku Miyuazato and England’s Tommy Fleetwood vs. Ian Poulter on Wednesday, and England’s Paul Casey vs. Matthew Fitzpatrick on Friday. Jason Day is the only player in the field with multiple wins in this event, having won in 2014 and 2016. Tiger Woods won three times and Geoff Ogivly won twice. Rory McIlroy and Ian Poulter have each won 23 matches in this event. That’s the most of any players in the field. Poulter’s amount is impressive since only one of his 12 appearances came in the current group-play format that guarantees at least three matches.

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