The First Look: AT&T Byron Nelson

After a thrilling U.S. Open, the Travelers Championship is next up on the PGA TOUR docket. The players will travel across the country from San Diego to TPC River Highlands in Cromwell, Connecticut. The course will play as a short 6,841-yard par 70 and the greens will be a mix of bentgrass and poa annua. This is a full-field event and so there will be around 156 golfers teeing it up, with the top 65 and ties making the weekend. Last year, the event was one of the first in a handful of events that occurred after the COVID restart and was won by Dustin Johnson, who finished at 19-under, one shot ahead of Kevin Streelman. Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: $1 Million Dollar Pitch + Putt [$250,000 to 1st] STRATEGY The Travelers is a fun event with a course that caters to scoring and doesn’t play favorites with any one type of style or player. We’ve seen players who knock the ball well under 300 yards off the tee do well here — Jim Furyk shot a 58 at this event in 2016 — but have also had big hitters like Marc Leishman, Bubba Watson and the aforementioned Johnson find success here as well. TPC River Highlands is technically a Pete Dye venue, although it’s more of a Dye redesign as he helped restructure the course back in 1982. Still, the shorter par 70 plays like many of his classic venues in that things typically get harder as you approach the pin. The course is set in a classic parkland setting but does have some man-made water hazards that come into play on five of the holes. Water is also prominent down the stretch, mainly on the driveable par-4 15th and the shorter pa- 3 16th. Despite those holes being shorter and offering birdie chances, they have also been the site of numerous blowups down the stretch. From a statistical perspective, TPC River Highlands has some of the easiest to hit fairways on Tour, with driving accuracy numbers here hitting close to 70% for the field, which is about 5-10% higher than the normal TOUR average. Things get a little tougher as players approach the green, but the greens here aren’t typically that difficult to hit either. Where TPC River Highlands does offer some difficulty is around the greens as scrambling here does tend to be tougher than usual, with scrambling percentages typically being 2-4% below TOUR average. Still, players don’t necessarily need to be expert scramblers to win here as they won’t typically be missing a ton of greens if their irons are firing. Four of the past five winners gained 5.0 strokes or more on approach in the year of their victory. We have seen recent winners like Bubba Watson (2018) and Jordan Spieth (2017) get hot around the greens here too — both gained over 3.0 strokes ATG in the year of their win — so if you’re not targeting a player with top of the line Approach stats, make sure they can at least scramble a bit or have some kind of solid Dye course history to fall back on. Johnson won here last season while going off around +2500 to +3000 in the betting odds, and this event has gifted us a few big winners over time with Russell Knox (2016) and Chez Reavie (2019) going off in the +5000 to +7000 range for betting odds. Still, this event has typically catered to players with great course history, so don’t be afraid to target the big names who have some experience playing the venue. GOLFERS TO CONSIDER Bryson DeChambeau (+1200 to Win, $11,100 on DraftKings) Despite this course catering less to bombers than Torrey Pines, Bryson has shown some real affinity for TPC River Highlands. The 2020 U.S. Open winner has finished inside the top 10 at this venue in each of the past three seasons and has gained 3.0 strokes or more putting in each of those appearances. Bryson’s best weapon is obviously his driver, but he’s started to figure out how to be more consistent around these shorter venues recently and came close to grabbing his first win at THE PLAYERS just a couple of months ago on the claustrophobic TPC Sawgrass — another Pete Dye venue. Bryson ranks eighth in Strokes Gained: Putting on Poa/Bentgrass over the past 50 rounds and should certainly be motivated for a big week after falling apart on the back nine at Torrey Pines on Sunday after being in contention for his second straight U.S. Open trophy. His odds to win here are actually quite fair considering his win rate (three wins in 22 PGA TOUR starts) since the COVID-19 restart occurred. Paul Casey (+1200 to Win, $9,900 on DraftKings) Casey sets up as a great course history play. The Englishman has played in this event in each of the past five seasons and leads the field in Strokes Gained: Total over that span. He lost in a playoff here to Bubba Watson in 2015 and also finished T2 here (again to Bubba Watson) in 2018. Casey clearly loves the layout and sightlines here as he’s gained over 5.0 strokes ball striking at TPC River Highlands in five of his six career appearances at this event. His win rate doesn’t stack up as well to the other young players in the game, but he’s been so prolific at this venue that his outright odds don’t seem too out of line. His recent form is also fantastic as his last two PGA TOUR starts have both yielded top-10 finishes at majors, including a T7 last week at Torrey Pines where he shot seven-under on the weekend and ranked 15th in putts per GIR. Russell Henley (+6000 to Win, $8,300 on DraftKings) Henley is coming off an exciting U.S. Open which saw him enter Sunday tied for the lead and in the second-to-last grouping. The American was firing with his irons in that event and ended the week T8 in Greens in Regulation percentage. He also has one of the more underrated course histories at TPC River Highlands having finished T11 (2016) and T6 (2018) here over the past five seasons. In both those finishes, Henley was in contention late down the stretch and his profile definitely fits this course well. He ranks third in SG: Approach stats over the past 50 rounds and while he can be streaky on the greens, Henley’s definitely capable of getting hot enough with the putter to grab a big week here, especially given what he’s capable of with his short irons. His betting number is more than fair given the setup for the week, which has always been one where shorter hitters like Henley have been able to compete. Aaron Wise (+8000 to Win, $7,400 on DraftKings) Wise looks discounted in the odds here. The 2018 winner of the Byron Nelson has been having a very solid bounce-back year and comes in with momentum after a solid T9 against a very tough field at The Memorial. He missed out on U.S. Open qualifying but will now have the advantage of a week of rest vs. a lot of the field who are coming over from Torrey Pines. He’s gained 3.0 strokes or more on approach in each of his past two starts and has also been positive in strokes gained on and around the greens of late. Wise only finished T46 at this event last season (2020) but was in horrible form at the time so just the fact he made the cut that week should be looked at as a positive. All his metrics are on the rise at this point and he offers himself up as a great mid-range to higher-odds target in betting and for DFS. Refer a friend and get $20 DK Dollars! Head to the DraftKings Playbook Promo page for more details! Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: $1 Million Dollar Pitch + Putt [$250,000 to 1st] Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game. All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO), 1-800-BETS OFF(IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN). 21+ (18+ NH). CO/IL/IN/IA/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/MI only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.

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Rory McIlroy was already in the midst of a great 2019 after nine top-10 finishes, including his landmark win at THE PLAYERS Championship in March. But after his 64-61 weekend north of the border, in which he flirted with 59 and authored a seven-shot victory at the RBC Canadian Open, he could be on the verge of an epic season even by his lofty standards. Welcome to the Monday Finish, where McIlroy won for the second time this season, racked up his 10th top-10 finish in just 13 starts, and moved to second in the FedExCup. FIVE OBSERVATIONS 1. There was something familiar about this one. Namely, McIlroy’s 16th PGA TOUR title was a lot like his first. In his breakthrough victory, at the 2010 Wells Fargo Championship, McIlroy went 66-62 on the weekend to win. “How about that Rory McIlroy?â€� said Phil Mickelson, one of those left in his wake. This time, McIlroy produced a 64-61 weekend at Hamilton Golf & Country Club. Shane Lowry (67, T2) was among those left shaking his head this time and openly wondering what golf course McIlroy was playing. Even McIlroy himself seemed to be taken aback, arching his eyebrows and smiling at his caddie after one of his more improbable back-nine birdies. McIlroy is no stranger to the big finish. Since 2010, he has won five times while shooting 65 or better in the final round. Not surprisingly he leads the TOUR in that category. For more on McIlroy’s victory, click here. [Desk: Please link to Adam’s winner’s column]   2. Rory becoming ‘Open’ specialist The seven-shot win not only marked the biggest margin of victory on TOUR this season, the victory was also McIlroy’s sixth national Open title, and he became just the sixth player to win the U.S. Open, Open Championship, and the RBC Canadian Open. Next up: this week’s U.S. Open at Pebble Beach. “I found a little groove,â€� he said, “and I want to keep it going.â€� 3. The new date was a massive hit. Although it used to be played the week after The Open Championship, the RBC Canadian Open has been moved up and now leads into the U.S. Open. You could say it’s worked out. “Part of the reason for playing here was I wanted my game to be in good shape for Pebble Beach, but doesn’t mean this tournament doesn’t mean anything,â€� said McIlroy, who is already on board to defend his title next year. “I mean, it’s a big event and I think it will only get bigger again because the date on the calendar. I think a lot guys will start to play. Four of the top six in the world here this week. The field here is going to go from strength to strength.â€� Said Canadian Nick Taylor, who opened with 64-65 before fading on the weekend (73-72, T27), “I think a lot of the top guys like playing the week before the major to be in competitive mode.â€� 4. Canada won in other ways, too. The last Canadian to win the tournament remains Pat Fletcher in 1954, but the week offered plenty of close calls and hope for the future. Taylor’s 64-65 start was exciting, and Adam Hadwin (70, solo 6th) not only won the Rivermead Cup as Low Canadian, he earned a spot in the Open Championship (along with Graeme McDowell, T8) later this summer.  Fellow Canadian Mackenzie Hughes (71, T14) also had a good week. “Yeah, I think it means a lot,â€� Hadwin said of the home country’s strong showing. “I think it proves a lot to not only us as players, but the golfing fans across the country that there is a bunch of us out here and we’re here to stay. We’re here to play well and we’re going to contend for championships for years to come.â€� 5. Simpson confident as he eyes Pebble Beach. McIlroy wasn’t the only player to get a little U.S. Open wind in his sails at Hamilton. Webb Simpson, who won the 2012 U.S. Open at Olympic Club, will try to replicate that feat a couple hours south at the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach buoyed by his T2 finish in Canada. “I felt like mentally it was my best week in a long time,â€� said Simpson, the 2018 PLAYERS champion. “I putted really well. I’m excited. Got to make short putts, long putts at the U.S. Open to contend, and so I’m excited for next week. I think my game is in a good spot.â€� FIVE INSIGHTS 1. McIlroy’s dominance was easily quantified. He ranked 1st in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (+1.729), 5th in SG: Approach-the-Green (+1.224), 6th in SG: Approach-the-Green (+0.862), 6th in SG: Putting (+1.457) and 1st in SG: Total (+5.272), making him just the fourth winner to rank inside the top six in each of those statistics since 2004. He’s the first, however, to do so on a course other than Kapalua. The others: Xander Schauffele (2019 Sentry Tournament of Champions), Jordan Spieth (2016 Sentry TOC), and Stuart Appleby (2006 Sentry TOC). 2. McIlroy was just as dominant by margin of victory. His seven-shot cushion marked his fourth career win by seven or more strokes. He won the 2015 Wells Fargo Championship by seven, and cruised to eight-shot wins at the 2011 U.S. Open and 2012 PGA Championship. 3. There were three rounds of 61 or better on the week – Brandt Snedeker’s second-round 60, Ben Silverman’s second-round 61, McIlroy’s final-round 61 – which makes a total of 10 rounds of 61 or better on TOUR this season. Last season saw just six such rounds in total. 4. Simpson notched his fourth top-10 finish this season after racking up nine of them last season, and he did it largely with his short game. He ranked 1st in Strokes Gained: Putting (+9.069) and Scrambling (18 of 21). 5. England’s Danny Willett (T8, -10) posted his first top-10 finish on TOUR since winning the 2016 Masters Tournament, a span of 35 starts. WYNDHAM REWARDS The Wyndham Rewards Top 10 is in its first season and adds another layer of excitement to the FedExCup Regular Season. The top 10 players at the end of the FedExCup Regular Season will earn bonus payouts from the Wyndham Rewards Top 10. The big mover at the RBC Canadian Open was exactly who you would expect, with winner Rory McIlroy moving into second position just 120 points behind Matt Kuchar (70, T4). McIlroy, the 2016 FedExCup champion, won for the second time this season and heads to this week’s U.S. Open at Pebble Beach with Kuchar well within range.

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Caddie Confidential: Bonuses, Rory scuttlebutt

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