Through two rounds at the World Golf Championships – HSBC Champions, Tony Finau sits at 11 under par and has opened up a three-stroke advantage over a trio of players. Here are the top 10 win probabilities heading into the weekend: The top 3 in terms of their share of win probability, Tony Finau, Justin Rose, and Tommy Fleetwood, are all among the top 6 players in this field according to our model (Rose at #2, Finau at #5, and Fleetwood at #6). There is a 72 percent chance that the winner will emerge from that trio of golfers. While Rose has been a top-10 player in the world for several years now, both Fleetwood and Finau have only recently risen to that level. In fact, they have followed similar trajectories: here are plots of their respective performances over the last few years (Fleetwood above, Finau below): Each bar in these graphs indicates the golfer’s average Strokes Gained at an event, and the black line is a 10-event moving average. Both Fleetwood and Finau were performing at a level similar to an average PGA TOUR professional (i.e. Strokes Gained of 0) near the end of the 2016 season. Recently they have both elevated their games to near the level of a top 5 player in the world (which can be thought of as a golfer who averages +2 Strokes Gained per round). Finau and Fleetwood have done everything but win over the past year on the PGA TOUR; a win at a World Golf Championships event this week would solidify their position among golf’s current elite. NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cutâ€�, “Top 20â€�, “Top 5â€�, and “Winâ€� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the World Golf Championships – HSBC Champions, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.
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