After the first round of The RSM Classic there are 86 players at Even par or better (T65th position). Here is how our live model is projecting Friday’s cutline: Even par: 27 percent 1 under par: 26 percent 1 over par: 17 percent The RSM Classic is played on two courses for the first 36 holes of the tournament: the Seaside course (SS) and Plantation (PL) course at Sea Island Resort. Historically, the Plantation course has played significantly easier than the Seaside course. Thursday’s first round was no different: here are the respective course scoring averages: Seaside: +1.05 Plantation: -0.95 This difference in course difficulty obviously has important implications for estimating finish probabilities. Roughly speaking, we could add 2 strokes to everyone’s score who played the Plantation course in the first round to obtain the “effective� current leaderboard. Here are the current top 10 win probabilities, factoring in the course rotation: Despite just 2 of the top 15 scores on Thursday coming from players on the Seaside course, 7 of the top 15 win probabilities belong to Thursday Seaside players. Of course, implicit in these estimates is the assumption that the scoring discrepancy between the two courses will persist in Friday’s second round. NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of The RSM Classic, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.
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Turkish Airlines Open | |
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN | |
Brandon Robinson-Thompson | +140 |
Haotong Li | +450 |
Jorge Campillo | +750 |
Jordan Smith | +1100 |
Robin Williams | +1200 |
Martin Couvra | +1400 |
Matthew Jordan | +1400 |
Joost Luiten | +2500 |
Ewen Ferguson | +3500 |
Mikael Lindberg | +3500 |
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Final Round 2-Balls - J. Guerrier / O. Lindell | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Julien Guerrier | -110 |
Oliver Lindell | +120 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - W. Nienaber / Y. Paul | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Yannik Paul | +100 |
Wilco Nienaber | +110 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - E. Molinari / R. Langasque | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Romain Langasque | -105 |
Edoardo Molinari | +115 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - M. Southgate / M. Kinhult | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Marcus Kinhult | +100 |
Matthew Southgate | +110 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - T. Clements / T. Christensen | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Todd Clements | -175 |
Tiger Christensen | +190 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - E. Ferguson / J. Luiten | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Joost Luiten | -110 |
Ewen Ferguson | +120 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - M. Couvra / M. Lindberg | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Martin Couvra | -135 |
Mikael Lindberg | +150 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - M. Jordan / J. Smith | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Jordan Smith | -110 |
Matthew Jordan | +120 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - H. Li / R. Williams | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Haotong Li | -175 |
Robin Williams | +190 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - J. Campillo / B. Robinson | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Jorge Campillo | +100 |
Brandon Robinson-Thompson | +110 |
Tie | +750 |
Mizuho Americas Open | |
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN | |
Jeeno Thitikul | +100 |
Nelly Korda | +335 |
Celine Boutier | +400 |
Andrea Lee | +850 |
Yealimi Noh | +1400 |
Carlota Ciganda | +3000 |
Rio Takeda | +7000 |
Lydia Ko | +17500 |
Kristen Gillman | +30000 |
Somi Lee | +35000 |
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Final Round 2-Balls - M. Katsu / J. Shin | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Minami Katsu | +100 |
Jenny Shin | +110 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - J. Bae / J. Kupcho | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Jennifer Kupcho | -145 |
Jenny Bae | +165 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - M. Lee / H. Naveed | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Minjee Lee | -180 |
Hira Naveed | +200 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - S. Kyriacou / L. Duncan | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Lindy Duncan | +105 |
Stephanie Kyriacou | +105 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - P. Tavatanakit / A. Yubol | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Patty Tavatanakit | -130 |
Arpichaya Yubol | +145 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - R. Yin / A. Kim | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Ruoning Yin | -160 |
Auston Kim | +180 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - L. Ko / S. Lee | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Lydia Ko | -135 |
Somi Lee | +150 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - J. Lopez / E. Szokol | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Elizabeth Szokol | -105 |
Julia Lopez Ramirez | +115 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - R. Takeda / K. Gillman | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Rio Takeda | -200 |
Kristen Gillman | +225 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - Y. Noh / C. Ciganda | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Yealimi Noh | -105 |
Carlota Ciganda | +115 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - N. Korda / A. Lee | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Nelly Korda | -145 |
Andrea Lee | +160 |
Tie | +750 |
Final Round 2-Balls - J. Thitikul / C. Boutier | |
Type: Final Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Jeeno Thitikul | -135 |
Celine Boutier | +150 |
Tie | +750 |
Myrtle Beach Classic | |
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN | |
Carson Young | +275 |
Mackenzie Hughes | +425 |
Harry Higgs | +600 |
Ryan Fox | +1200 |
Danny Walker | +1400 |
Victor Perez | +1400 |
Alex Smalley | +2500 |
Norman Xiong | +2500 |
Davis Shore | +2800 |
Ben Silverman | +4500 |
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Final Round 3-Balls - J. Svensson / A. Svensson / M. Manassero | |
Type: Final Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Jesper Svensson | +150 |
Adam Svensson | +180 |
Matteo Manassero | +200 |
Final Round 3-Balls - S. Fisk / J. Bramlett / A. Rozner | |
Type: Final Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Antoine Rozner | +175 |
Joseph Bramlett | +175 |
Steven Fisk | +175 |
Final Round 3-Balls - T. Humphrey / M. McGreevy / H. Springer | |
Type: Final Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Max McGreevy | +130 |
Hayden Springer | +145 |
Theo Humphrey | +300 |
Final Round 3-Balls - C. Hadley / B. Silverman / W. Chandler | |
Type: Final Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Ben Silverman | +130 |
Chesson Hadley | +200 |
Will Chandler | +210 |
Final Round 3-Balls - T. Kanaya / B. Haas / A. Albertson | |
Type: Final Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Takumi Kanaya | +100 |
Anders Albertson | +230 |
Bill Haas | +240 |
Final Round 3-Balls - F. Molinari / G. Duangmanee / L. List | |
Type: Final Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Luke List | +130 |
Francesco Molinari | +170 |
George Duangmanee | +250 |
Final Round 3-Balls - N. Xiong / D. Walker / A. Smalley | |
Type: Final Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Alex Smalley | +125 |
Danny Walker | +185 |
Norman Xiong | +230 |
Final Round 3-Balls - V. Perez / R. Fox / D. Shore | |
Type: Final Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Victor Perez | +135 |
Ryan Fox | +145 |
Davis Shore | +280 |
Final Round 3-Balls - A. Putnam / A. Tosti / M. Feuerstein | |
Type: Final Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Alejandro Tosti | +120 |
Andrew Putnam | +140 |
Michael Feuerstein | +350 |
Final Round 3-Balls - C. Young / H. Higgs / M. Hughes | |
Type: Final Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Mackenzie Hughes | +110 |
Carson Young | +190 |
Harry Higgs | +260 |
Major Specials 2025 | |
Type: To Win A Major 2025 - Status: OPEN | |
Scottie Scheffler | +160 |
Bryson DeChambeau | +350 |
Xander Schauffele | +350 |
Ludvig Aberg | +400 |
Collin Morikawa | +450 |
Jon Rahm | +450 |
Justin Thomas | +550 |
Brooks Koepka | +700 |
Viktor Hovland | +700 |
Hideki Matsuyama | +800 |
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PGA Championship 2025 | |
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN | |
Rory McIlroy | +450 |
Scottie Scheffler | +450 |
Bryson DeChambeau | +1100 |
Ludvig Aberg | +1800 |
Justin Thomas | +2000 |
Xander Schauffele | +2000 |
Collin Morikawa | +2200 |
Jon Rahm | +2200 |
Joaquin Niemann | +3500 |
Brooks Koepka | +4000 |
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US Open 2025 | |
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN | |
Rory McIlroy | +500 |
Scottie Scheffler | +500 |
Bryson DeChambeau | +1200 |
Xander Schauffele | +1200 |
Jon Rahm | +1400 |
Ludvig Aberg | +1400 |
Collin Morikawa | +1600 |
Brooks Koepka | +1800 |
Justin Thomas | +2000 |
Viktor Hovland | +2000 |
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The Open 2025 | |
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN | |
Rory McIlroy | +500 |
Scottie Scheffler | +550 |
Xander Schauffele | +1100 |
Ludvig Aberg | +1400 |
Collin Morikawa | +1600 |
Jon Rahm | +1600 |
Bryson DeChambeau | +2000 |
Shane Lowry | +2500 |
Tommy Fleetwood | +2500 |
Tyrrell Hatton | +2500 |
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Ryder Cup 2025 | |
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN | |
USA | -150 |
Europe | +140 |
Tie | +1200 |