Officialsportsbetting.com Golf Betting Stats Report: CIMB Classic, Round 1

Stats Report: CIMB Classic, Round 1

After Thursday’s first round at the CIMB Classic, Bronson Burgoon leads alone at 9 under par. In pursuit 1 stroke behind is Austin Cook, who is then followed by a trio of players at 7 under par. However, the clear frontrunner in terms of win probability is Justin Thomas, who sits one shot further back at 6 under par. Here are the top 10 win probabilities according to our live predictive model. Thomas is in a league of his own this week according to our model. He is estimated to be 2.1 strokes better than the average PGA TOUR professional, while the second-best player in this field, Paul Casey, is estimated at just 1.2 strokes above the average professional. Thomas’ pre-tournament win probability was 14 percent; his 6 under par 66 on Thursday increased that number by 5 percentage points. Thomas has been a model of consistency over the last year and a half. Shown below are Thomas’ adjusted strokes-gained (“True SG�) by event since 2015. The 2017 Open Championship is highlighted because this is the last time Justin Thomas had negative adjusted strokes-gained in an event, a remarkable achievement. The CIMB Classic is one of the easier events to win on the PGA TOUR schedule; we estimate it to be similar to the John Deere Classic or the AT&T Byron Nelson. That being said, it is a great feat to win any PGA TOUR event. Even this week, where Justin Thomas is clearly in the best form of any player in this field, he still only has about a 1 in 7 chance of winning at the start of the week. This speaks to the variability in golfer performance, and lends credibility to the idea that “on any given day, anyone can win� in professional golf. NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the CIMB Classic, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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Major Specials 2025
Type: To Win A Major 2025 - Status: OPEN
Scottie Scheffler+160
Bryson DeChambeau+350
Xander Schauffele+350
Ludvig Aberg+400
Collin Morikawa+450
Jon Rahm+450
Justin Thomas+550
Brooks Koepka+700
Viktor Hovland+700
Hideki Matsuyama+800
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PGA Championship 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+450
Scottie Scheffler+450
Bryson DeChambeau+900
Justin Thomas+1800
Collin Morikawa+2200
Jon Rahm+2200
Xander Schauffele+2200
Ludvig Aberg+2500
Joaquin Niemann+3000
Brooks Koepka+4000
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AdventHealth Championship
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Kensei Hirata+2000
Mitchell Meissner+2200
SH Kim+2200
Neal Shipley+2500
Seungtaek Lee+2800
Hank Lebioda+3000
Chandler Blanchet+3500
Pierceson Coody+3500
Rick Lamb+3500
Trey Winstead+3500
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Regions Tradition
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Stewart Cink+550
Steve Stricker+650
Ernie Els+700
Steven Alker+750
Miguel Angel Jimenez+1200
Bernhard Langer+1400
Jerry Kelly+1600
Alex Cejka+1800
Retief Goosen+2500
Richard Green+2500
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US Open 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+500
Scottie Scheffler+500
Bryson DeChambeau+1200
Xander Schauffele+1200
Jon Rahm+1400
Ludvig Aberg+1400
Collin Morikawa+1600
Brooks Koepka+1800
Justin Thomas+2000
Viktor Hovland+2000
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The Open 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+500
Scottie Scheffler+550
Xander Schauffele+1100
Ludvig Aberg+1400
Collin Morikawa+1600
Jon Rahm+1600
Bryson DeChambeau+2000
Shane Lowry+2500
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Ryder Cup 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
USA-150
Europe+140
Tie+1200

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