Statistically Speaking: TOUR Championship

Nothing like familiar ground to finish a thrilling PGA TOUR season. Tom Bendelow started it. Donald Ross refined it. Bobby Jones played it. Rees Jones refurbished it. East Lake is a fitting finish annually as it reeks of history on the property, on the blueprints and from the names on the trophies etched before and since the FedExCup was handed out in 2007. Unlike the unfamiliar test last week of Wilmington Country Club, the past at East Lake reminds us exactly of what is needed to win. Horses of the past have given us plenty of clues to look for. The Par-70 tips at 7,346 with just two Par-5s to collect birdies. The Par-3s amplify what is required to get it around here: Ball-Striking. Long, strong and away from the almost three inches of Bermuda rough will be the recipe again. Only 24 acres of fairway is in play this week similarly tight to the 22 acres at TPC Southwind. Bermuda greens averaging 6,000 square feet will catch plenty of recovery shots from the rough but good luck getting the ball to check and spin on the proper shelves. After the switch to Bermuda greens in 2008, the two lowest GROSS totals have been Xander Schauffele (15-under in 2020) and Jon Rahm and Kevin Na (14-under 2021). Rory McIlroy’s 13-under in 2019 tied the previous mark set by Henrik Stenson in 2013. The winner of the event the last three seasons should get all of the plaudits that go with the system that is in place. For our intents and purposes, we need to understand how the best scores were achieved. Key Statistics Only players listed are competing this week; click stat headline for full list Strokes Gained: Off the Tee The only way to attack pin placement this week will be taking advantage of the tee ball. Start here and work forward! Of the last six winners three have led the field in this category and all have been T7 or better. Ball-Striking The combination here of big, accurate tee shots while painting GIR will help with the next category below and increase scoring chances. The last seven winners have all ranked T7 or better. Bogey Avoidance Of the last eight winners five have led the field in this category. None of the three were worse than T5. Keeping bogeys and other crooked numbers off the card is key when birdies are not readily available. Gross Total The starting strokes began with the 2019 edition. Take a look at some gross scores of players from the last three editions. You’ll notice Jon Rahm and Sungjae Im are significant factors in the above stats as is Xander Schauffele if he figures his driver out. Rahm (starting at 3-under, 7 back) is paying +1200 for a win at BetMGM Sportsbook with Im (starting 4-under, 6 back) starting at +2800 and Schauffele (starting 6-under, 4 back) at +650. Odds were sourced on Tuesday, Aug. 23, 2022. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

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