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Statistically Speaking: BMW Championship

The BMW Championship this week at Wilmington Country Club (South Course) in Delaware represents the last chance saloon to not only punch a ticket to East Lake Golf Club for the TOUR Championship but to also set up your starting position for the final leg in the chase for the FedExCup. Robert Trent Jones’ design is new to all in its current layout, (except for one Palmer Cup player from almost 10 years ago you can see in Rob Bolton’s Power Rankings), but let’s try and crack the code of who will be populating the first page of the leaderboard at the conclusion of play. With no course history, our regular Horses For Courses is not in play… BUT if you read on we will add some “Equines For Event” this week! At 7,534 yards, par-71 (35-36) there are some interesting angles. Holes 12 and 14 will play from 634 and 649 yards respectively. Robert Trent Jones South Course at Firestone has just ONE of these (Par-70) and eagles rarely landed in Akron. The par-3s also have teeth. The 15th follows the 649-yard par-5 with 234 yards of one big shot to get home. Of the other three shot holes, two slot over 200 yards from the tips with the one exception, the 13th checking in at 170. The massive greens complexes will test the putting acumen but it will give chances for recovery from Fescue and Bluegrass rough. Hitting GIR are fantastic but leaving eight footers for par all day can grind on the gears. Fortune should favor the brave! When new courses are introduced, the formula remains the same. Nobody will have an advantage reading greens or notes from old yardage books so the elite ball-strikers usually rise to the top. Putters can catch up or get hot like Patrick Cantlay did last year but there’s a reason big names factor in these events annually. Wilmington has received average rainfall in August so firm and fast will only be on the cards by design of the TOUR this week. Key Statistics Only players listed are competing this week; click stat headline for full list Strokes Gained: Tee to Green Playing out of four inches behind mature trees doesn’t sound like fun. Much easier to attack large greens from the shortest of grass with the most loft as possible. Strokes Gained: Approach the Green Paying off great tee balls from the fairway or from the rough will lead to scoring chances. With massive targets staring right back down the fairway the contenders will take aim at the proper quadrants and try to avoid chances for three putts. Strokes Gained: Putting The final piece of the puzzle but those who can figure out what’s happening on the greens before the others come around will have an advantage. With no inside information those who stroke it well and take advantage of their opportunities will stick out this week. Par-5 Scoring The yardage of the two listed above is enough to get my attention and third one, located on the front nine is “just” 582 yards. Players who can create scoring chances here will factor. If you were paying attention above you’ll notice Rory McIlroy and Sam Burns are featured in three of the four key stats. McIlroy is paying +1000 for a win at BetMGM Sportsbook with Burns starting at +2500. Odds were sourced on Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2022. For live odds, visit BetMGM. Since our course history is non-existent this week, I’ve decided to help with event history instead. Course setup, grasses and weather all are part of the puzzles we try and solve each week. This will give you an idea of who plays well this time of year (read: FedExCup Playoffs only) and on similar surfaces. The last five seasons this event has been played three times in the Chicago suburbs while the other two were contested in the I-95 corridor. All five events featured Bent/Poa green complexes and none of the tracks had been a standard TOUR stop over the years so course form is slim, if relevant at all. Equines For Event Players listed only if they are in the field for 2022; Top 10 last five years. Patrick Cantlay (BetMGM odds. Win: +1400, Top 5: +225, Top 10: +100) Defending champion won’t mind another new track as he blew the doors off Caves Valley with 31 birdies and an eagle last year against just six bogeys. His 27-under is the event scoring record. He gained over 14 strokes on the greens, the most in any event since the stat was formed and was T2 GIR. Long, short, Par-whatever, he’s picked up T12, second and T9 in three of the last four years before breaking thru last year. Jon Rahm (BetMGM odds. Win: +1200, Top 5: +200, Top 10: -120) The 2020 event champion at Olympia Fields was T9 in his defense last year outside Baltimore and adds T24 at Aronimink from 2018 and T5 from Conway Farms in 2017. Perked to life last week for T5 as he was T1 GIR. Justin Thomas (BetMGM odds. Win: +1600, Top 5: +250, Top 10: +110) Torched Medinah in 2019 to the tune of 25-under as he defeated Cantlay by three shots. Posted the course record 61 en route to the win. The Par-72 that week stretched 7,613 yards but obviously he wasn’t bothered. His defense in 2020 went for T25 and he followed that up with T22 last season. Sat 12th at Aronimink in 2018. Rory McIlroy (BetMGM odds. Win: +1000, Top 5: +375, Top 10: -135) The 2012 champ at Crooked Stick has added four more top 10s and hasn’t finished outside T19 since 2017 at Conway Farms. His solo fourth last season included an opening round of 64 and third round 65 but he was still five back of Cantlay’s winning total. Pipped at the Post Billy Horschel: Broke onto the scene at Cherry Hills in 2014 as he picked up the title at altitude outside Denver. Picked up two more top 10 paydays in 2016 (T10) and 2018 (T3) but his last three seasons haven’t cracked the top 30. Marc Leishman: The 2017 winner at Conway Farms posted T19 in 2019 for his only other top 40 since his win. Keegan Bradley: Won the 2018 edition at Aronimink as his only top 25 in recent history. Tony Finau: Last five BMWs has T7-T8-4-5-T15. Be patient as his last five final round scores are 64-65-69-65 and 63 last year. Combine that with the run of form he’s in currently and you’re cooking with gas! Adam Scott: Returning to the event for the first time since T25 in 2020, the Aussie tends to heat up this time of year, when he plays. With four top 10s in six events between 2012 and 2019 he needs to be considered. Xander Schauffele: T3 as he missed the playoff by a shot in 2018 is one of his four top 25 finishes in five events yet his only top 10. Sungjae Im: T11 on debut in 2019 and solo third last year suggests that the fields and courses don’t bother him too much. Only blemish was T56 at Olympia Fields where only a handful of players broke par. When it’s time to score, it’s time for Sungjae.

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Veritex Bank Championship
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Hank Lebioda+2000
Johnny Keefer+2000
Alistair Docherty+2500
Kensei Hirata+2500
Neal Shipley+2500
Rick Lamb+2500
S H Kim+2500
Trey Winstead+2500
Zecheng Dou+2500
Seungtaek Lee+2800
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Zurich Classic of New Orleans
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy / Shane Lowry+350
Collin Morikawa / Kurt Kitayama+1400
Billy Horschel / Tom Hoge+1800
J.T. Poston / Keith Mitchell+1800
Thomas Detry / Robert MacIntyre+2000
Wyndham Clark / Taylor Moore+2000
Nicolai Hojgaard / Rasmus Hojgaard+2200
Aaron Rai / Sahith Theegala+2500
Ben Griffin / Andrew Novak+2800
Nico Echavarria / Max Greyserman+3000
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Tournament Match-Ups - R. McIlroy / S. Lowry vs C. Morikawa / K. Kitayama
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy / Shane Lowry-210
Collin Morikawa / Kurt Kitayama+160
Tournament Match-Ups - J.T. Poston / K. Mitchell vs T. Detry / R. MacIntyre
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
J.T. Poston / Keith Mitchell-130
Thomas Detry / Robert MacIntyre+100
Tournament Match-Ups - J. Svensson / N. Norgaard vs R. Fox / G. Higgo
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Ryan Fox / Garrick Higgo-125
Jesper Svensson / Niklas Norgaard-105
Tournament Match-Ups - N. Hojgaard / R. Hojgaard vs N. Echavarria / M. Greyserman
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Nicolai Hojgaard / Rasmus Hojgaard-130
Nico Echavarria / Max Greyserman+100
Tournament Match-Ups - M. Fitzpatrick / A. Fitzpatrick vs S. Stevens / M. McGreevy
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Sam Stevens / Max McGreevy-120
Matt Fitzpatrick / Alex Fitzpatrick-110
Tournament Match-Ups - W. Clark / T. Moore vs B. Horschel / T. Hoge
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Billy Horschel / Tom Hoge-130
Wyndham Clark / Taylor Moore+100
Tournament Match-Ups - N. Taylor / A. Hadwin vs B. Garnett / S. Straka
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Nick Taylor / Adam Hadwin-120
Brice Garnett / Sepp Straka-110
Tournament Match-Ups - A. Rai / S. Theegala vs B. Griffin / A. Novak
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Aaron Rai / Sahith Theegala-120
Ben Griffin / Andrew Novak-110
Tournament Match-Ups - J. Highsmith / A. Tosti vs A. Smalley / J. Bramlett
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Joe Highsmith / Alejandro Tosti-130
Alex Smalley / Joseph Bramlett+100
Tournament Match-Ups - A. Bhatia / C. Young vs M. Wallace / T. Olesen
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Akshay Bhatia / Carson Young-120
Matt Wallace / Thorbjorn Olesen-110
The Chevron Championship
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Jeeno Thitikul+900
Nelly Korda+1000
Lydia Ko+1400
A Lim Kim+2000
Jin Young Ko+2000
Angel Yin+2500
Charley Hull+2500
Haeran Ryu+2500
Lauren Coughlin+2500
Minjee Lee+2500
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1st Round 3 Balls - J. Thitikul / H. Ryu / Y. Tseng
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Jeeno Thitikul-140
Haeran Ryu+150
Yani Tseng+850
1st Round 3 Balls - J.Y. Ko / Y. Saso / B. Henderson
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Jin Young Ko+115
Brooke Henderson+175
Yuka Saso+275
1st Round 3 Balls - A. Yin / G. Lopez / M. Sagstrom
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Angel Yin+125
Gaby Lopez+185
Madelene Sagstrom+230
1st Round 3 Balls - N. Korda / L. Vu / P. Tavatanakit
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Nelly Korda+110
Lilia Vu+200
Patty Tavatanakit+250
1st Round 3 Balls - C. Hull / L. Grant / S. Lewis
Type: 1st Round 3 Balls - Status: OPEN
Charley Hull-110
Linn Grant+160
Stacy Lewis+450
1st Round 3 Balls - C. Boutier / A.L. Kim / M. Khang
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A Lim Kim+140
Celine Boutier+175
Megan Khang+220
1st Round 3 Balls - H. Green / L. Coughlin / N. Hataoka
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Lauren Coughlin+165
Nasa Hataoka+170
Hannah Green+190
1st Round 3 Balls - A. Furue / L. Ko / A. Yang
Type: 1st Round 3 Balls - Status: OPEN
Lydia Ko+115
Ayaka Furue+165
Amy Yang+300
Mitsubishi Electric Classic
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Steven Alker+700
Stewart Cink+700
Padraig Harrington+800
Ernie Els+1000
Miguel Angel Jimenez+1200
Alex Cejka+2000
Bernhard Langer+2000
K J Choi+2000
Retief Goosen+2000
Stephen Ames+2000
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Scottie Scheffler+160
Bryson DeChambeau+350
Xander Schauffele+350
Ludvig Aberg+400
Collin Morikawa+450
Jon Rahm+450
Justin Thomas+550
Brooks Koepka+700
Viktor Hovland+700
Hideki Matsuyama+800
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PGA Championship 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+500
Scottie Scheffler+500
Bryson DeChambeau+1400
Ludvig Aberg+1400
Xander Schauffele+1400
Jon Rahm+1800
Justin Thomas+1800
Collin Morikawa+2000
Brooks Koepka+2500
Viktor Hovland+2500
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US Open 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+500
Scottie Scheffler+500
Bryson DeChambeau+1200
Xander Schauffele+1200
Jon Rahm+1400
Ludvig Aberg+1400
Collin Morikawa+1600
Brooks Koepka+1800
Justin Thomas+2000
Viktor Hovland+2000
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The Open 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+500
Scottie Scheffler+550
Xander Schauffele+1100
Ludvig Aberg+1400
Collin Morikawa+1600
Jon Rahm+1600
Bryson DeChambeau+2000
Shane Lowry+2500
Tommy Fleetwood+2500
Tyrrell Hatton+2500
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Ryder Cup 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
USA-150
Europe+140
Tie+1200

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Improbable shots highlight race for FedExCup’s top 125Improbable shots highlight race for FedExCup’s top 125

GREENSBORO, N.C. – Improbable shots abounded on one of the most stressful days of the PGA TOUR season. Sunday’s final round of the Wyndham Championship is the last day for players to qualify for the FedExCup Playoffs. The top 125 after the final putt drops – in this case, Henrik Stenson’s 3-footer for a one-shot victory – earn their berths into golf’s postseason, and many players need to be among that elite group to retain their full playing privileges for the following season. Both title hopes and jobs are on the line, a drama-inducing combination. A hole-in-one, a 60-footer from the fringe and unlikely birdies at the last hole all helped players qualify for next week’s THE NORTHERN TRUST, the postseason opener. And all these shots happened Sunday on Sedgefield’s final three holes. J.J. Henry narrowly grabbed the 125th spot in the FedExCup standings, and he did it by the slimmest of margins. He finished just 1.13 FedExCup points ahead of No. 126 Zac Blair. 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