Statistically Speaking: Better go low or you’ll bust in Vegas

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India’s Shubhankar Sharma, the youngest competitor in the field, takes a two-shot lead into the final round of the World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship. Four players – American Phil Mickelson, England’s Tyrrell Hatton and the Spanish duo of Sergio Garcia and Rafa Cabrera Bello – are the closest pursuers to the 21-year-old Sharma, who is at 13 under entering Sunday’s decisive round at Club de Golf Chapultepec. PGATOUR.COM’s Live Blog includes updates, highlights and commentary from our on-site team at Chapultepec, the highest elevated course on the PGA TOUR at more than 7,600 feet above sea level. Check out the Twitter feed below for complete coverage.

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Alex Noren (+175 for a Top 20) … Based on his current form – 7-for-7 with two top 10s among four top 20s since the Farmers – you could reach for a top 10, but he’s still short of a top 20 in three prior tries at the RBC Heritage (although each resulted in a top 30). The 39-year-old Swede continues to fulfill his reputation as a terrific putter, and he’s fifth in scrambling, so it’s not difficult to understand how he’s averaged 68.83 in 12 rounds at Harbour Town. Mito Pereira (+250 for a Top 20) … The PGA TOUR rookie opened the season with a solo third at Silverado. It both punctuated months of spectacular form while laying the foundation of security for the long-term. He hasn’t squandered it. Overall, the Chilean is 11-for-15 with four top 25s and 39th in the FedExCup. He’s tied for fifth on the PGA TOUR with 38 red numbers and ranks 31st in adjusted scoring. Although he’s a debutant at Harbour Town, his combination of accuracy on approach and short game warrants elevated hope. Currently 13th in greens hit and 18th in scrambling. Brendon Todd (+400 for a Top 20) … Although the premium is on hitting the tiny greens in regulation, he’s so consistently strong in finding fairways and rolling in putts that he can get away with averaging, say, 12 GIR per round and still having a reasonable chance to prevail. That was precisely his clip at TPC San Antonio two weeks ago en route to a season-best T8. He put it all together at Harbour Town once before, too, in hanging up a solo fourth prior to his full-swing yips in 2015. This is his seventh appearance. Scott Stallings (+450 for a Top 20) … Just 3-for-7 and without a top-45 finish at Harbour Town, the expectation is lower than this prop, but he rolls in with consecutive top 20s at Copperhead and TPC San Antonio. So, perhaps a personal best is in the offing this week even though what’s sustained a fruitful PGA TOUR career works better here. Historically, he’s feasted in piling up scoring opportunities, but he’s been misfiring much more often this season. Meanwhile, his usually average putting has improved considerably. If it extends into this week, it’s the kind of reverse trending that could end the insanity. Nate Lashley (+550 for a Top 20) … As he navigates his final season of fully exempt status via his breakthrough title at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in 2019, and with his 40th birthday straight ahead in December, there are varying degrees of feels right now, both inside and outside the ropes. A recent flourish of form sparked by a T7 in Puerto Rico has lifted him to 87th in the FedExCup. Without a hiccup of late, it warrants a continuation for a profile that doesn’t garner attention often. Odds were sourced on Tuesday, April 12, 2022. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

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