Statistical predictions for the FedExCup Playoffs

DORADO, Puerto Rico – Although D.A. Points doesn’t technically get to defend his title this week in Puerto Rico, he may be the one who was credited for the idea of the Puerto Rico Open Charity Pro-Am. Points, who won the 2017 Puerto Rico Open by two shots, didn’t even wait until the call came out from the TOUR for support after last year’s hurricane. He volunteered to come down to the island as soon as there were questions about whether or not an event would take place this year. “I said to the guys at the PGA TOUR, ‘hey, let me know. If you guys want me to go down there for a fundraiser or a Pro-Am, just let me know,’� he said. “I wanted to help out.� Points was part of a contingent of 20 professional golfers from the PGA TOUR, Web.com Tour, and LPGA Tour who came together to help raise more than $500,000 for relief efforts this week. He said the resiliency of the Puerto Rican people is part of who they are. Even though last year’s Hurricane Maria was the worst recorded natural disaster in the island’s history, he said he’s seen them roll with the punches and was pleasantly surprised at how – of what he’s seen so far – the island is still “beautiful Puerto Rico.� Points’ story as well could be one of resiliency, as he said he came into last year’s Puerto Rico Open after a few down years and was trying to dig his game out of one of the deepest pits he’d ever been in. He birdied his first five holes Sunday but then got ahead of himself and fell back slightly, before birding four of his final six holes to eventually win by two over Retief Goosen, Bryson DeChambeau and Bill Lunde. He said he cared little about defending his title this week. He was happy to be part of the experience for the people here. “I’m sad the tournament isn’t going on this year, but I still have this opportunity to be down in Puerto Rico and play another great golf course,� he said. The biggest reason why it was important to be here this week, he said, was because people care about Puerto Rico – and the people who live here. When the TOUR reached out to some other past champions, it was an easy thing to say yes to. Derek Lamely, who won this event in 2010, said the big reason why he’s here is because of how much Puerto Rico feels like his home in Florida. “As stupid as it is to say, it even smells like home,� he said. “I’ve always liked it here.� Another Floridian and past Puerto Rico Open champion, George McNeil (2012), said without question he was going to participate this week and help out as much as he can. It was an opportunity to help show people Puerto Rico was open for business again, and because he saw how much impact a hurricane can have on a community – with Fort Myers, Florida getting hit by Hurricane Irma last year – he was happy to participate. “When the TOUR was figuring out what to do and they come up with this, it was a very easy yes. I’m happy to be down here and happy to play. The response and what people are doing is over and beyond what they expected, which is always great to see,� said McNeil, whose pro-am team (he split pro duties with Cheyenne Woods of the LPGA Tour, Tiger Woods’ niece) fired a 16-under-par 56 to win the event by one shot. “People are so excited about having us down here.� The PGA TOUR and its tournaments raised over $180 million for charitable causes in 2017, a record amount. McNeil said this week’s event – with the ultimate goal of raising $500,000 for local charities that have been part of the relief effort – is a microcosm of the TOUR’s charitable efforts as a whole. “That’s what the TOUR is all about,� he said. “It’s one of the things I’ve always loved the most,� continued Lamely. “You look at all these sports – the NFL and Major League Baseball – and we crush them all (in charitable giving). It’s definitely a great thing to be a part of.� And although Points will have to wait another year before he can try to become the second person to win the event twice in his career, an event like this week’s pro-am was a chance to be of something even bigger than a golf tournament. “This was our chance to say, ‘hey, we know you went through a really tough time, so if there is any way to help out, we will,’� he said. “People are still with Puerto Rico and we were ready to help bring people back here.�

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HONOLULU, Hawaii – When Jordan Spieth made the turn on Sunday in last year’s Sony Open in Hawaii he wasn’t the least bit concerned with Justin Thomas. Because as far as his friend was concerned – Thomas had already won. “I felt like there was a second tournament for second place,â€� Spieth recalled this week. Thomas was of course continuing his stunning pace after an opening 11-under 59 on Thursday at Waialae Country Club and was way out in front. He wanted the trophy but he also had his sights set on another magic number on the PGA TOUR – 253. Tommy Armour III’s 72-hole scoring record of 254 shots had held up since the 2003 Valero Texas Open – but Thomas wanted it for himself. Here’s a look back at how Thomas took aim – and ultimately took down – the PGA TOUR scoring record.  ROUND ONE – SUBLIME SUB 60 TIME Thomas was coming off an incredible win at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, staving off a late charge from Hideki Matsuyama to take his third PGA TOUR win. But as good as the win was, we still weren’t expecting the blitzkrieg that was the opening round in Honolulu. Paired with Jordan Spieth and Daniel Berger in the opening round Thomas began his day on the 10th hole. He was given an early indication of what might be on the cards when he chipped in for eagle from just off the green. But then he was unable to get up and down from the sand on the 11th, recording his only bogey of the day. Birdies on the 13th and 14th followed before he kicked things up a gear to record five straight birdies around the turn from the 16th through to the 2nd. Another birdie on the 4th sent Thomas to 9-under and left him with the prospect of playing the last five holes in two under to make his mark in history. Forget 59, he was thinking 58 or even 57 to match or beat Jim Furyk’s all-time round record.  “There are so many holes you can make birdies on. You can definitely make bogeys quickly if you’re not driving it straight or if you get out of position but the chances are there,â€� Thomas said this week. “At 9-under through 13 I felt there were four or all five holes there where I could get some more birdies. I didn’t have 57 specifically in my mind but I was trying to make as many birdies as I could.â€� It seemed a foregone conclusion at the time given how Thomas was flushing the ball but the golf gods refused to make it easy. At the 5th Thomas missed a nine-foot birdie putt. At the 6th he could not convert from 15-feet. When it came to the par-3 7th Thomas left himself plenty of meat on the bone at 29 feet, eight inches but hit a lovely putt down the slope, only to see it somehow trickle to the right at the very last moment to sit on the lip. Spieth already had the putter raised before dropping to his knees in disbelief. “His two best putts missed,â€� Spieth said referencing the 5th and 7th holes.  “I wish there was a camera with my view on the putt that he hit on No. 7. It was ridiculous. I’ve never seen a putt that I thought was so sure that it was going in with just drip speed, somehow missed the cup.â€� A nice par save on the 8th after his drive found tree trouble and his approach found the sand left him needing an eagle on the par-5 9th. Things looked a little grim when his tee shot found a fairway bunker. “We all know it’s the magical number in golf and I was so bummed when that tee shot went in the bunker,â€� Thomas said after the round. “Thought I hit a perfect drive. I was going to carry the bunker at the downslope and have about an 8-iron in, and I saw some sand flying and I was ready to punch something. “I was pretty upset about that, because I felt like all chances right there were gone; barring holing a wedge or something like that.â€� But after seeing Berger find the green from the same trap Thomas knew it was possible and the green light was on. A 5-iron from 206 yards found the mark leaving him with his chance at history from just 14 feet, 11 inches. “I was calm, I wasn’t too nervous over the putt,â€� Thomas added. When he let it roll and it dropped Spieth and Berger showed more emotion then the man himself. “I think I might have fist pumped harder than he did. I think he was in the zone and I don’t think he knew where he was at the time,â€� Spieth laughed when recalling the moment this week. Of course Spieth and Berger had played their part – by not creating tension. “It was kind of like a pitcher throwing a no-hitter or a perfect game,â€� Spieth said. “You just kind of talk about anything else other than the round. I’m not out there going, hey, JT you’re on 59 watch with five holes left. “It was a special day as part of a special year for him.â€� When the dust settled he had become the youngest player in history to shoot 59 on the PGA TOUR at just 23. David Duval was 27 when he managed the feat at the CareerBuilder Challenge in 1999. “Any time you can be the youngest at something is awesome,â€� Thomas said. “Obviously you only have so long to achieve it. That was cool to get that done.â€� He was just the second player to go sub-60 with a bogey (Furyk). It matched the lowest opening in PGA TOUR history with Paul Goydos from the 2010 John Deere Classic. It was three shots better than the previous lowest first round in Sony Open history.   ROUND TWO – EAGLE LANDS AGAIN Thomas played his opening nine holes on Friday in 2-under before making three straight birdies on the back nine. But he played the next five holes 1-over meaning his chances at a new 36-hole scoring record appeared slim. But just like the day before a final hole eagle left him with a 6-under 64, taking the all-time 36-hole PGA TOUR scoring record at 123. It knocked Pat Perez, David Toms and Jason Day from the mantle. “I definitely haven’t shown the world my best golf. I haven’t even shown the world great golf, or consistent, great golf,â€� he famously said afterwards.  It beat the Sony Open 36-hole record by three shots and his five-shot lead was an equal record with Paul Azinger (2000) and Brad Faxon (2001).   ROUND THREE – LATE SURGE The weekend began with the question – could Thomas possibly keep the roll going or would he inevitably slow down. Eight straight pars had most thinking the record run would be over. But Thomas would dig deep when not at his best and find five birdies in the last 10 holes for a 65. He wanted six. His 188 stroke total tied the TOUR 54-hole scoring record with Steve Stricker from the 2010 John Deere Classic. “I really wanted to birdie those last three because I was aware of the record,â€� Thomas said. “Not that I’m disappointed with anything that I did today, but yeah, I wanted it.â€� It beat the previous best Sony Open 54-hole record by five-shots and his own personal 54-hole record by eight.  He had amassed a seven-shot lead, the biggest through three rounds in Sony Open history, beating Jack Nicklaus’ six-stroke lead in 1974.   ROUND FOUR – CAPPING IT OFF IN STYLE. As Thomas warmed up for Sunday’s final round his nerves were intense. “All I could hear about from everyone and reading everything is no one has ever blown a seven-shot lead before. A lot of things go through your head when you wake up at 6:30 and you don’t tee off until 12:40,â€� Thomas said. “It definitely affected me. I woke up nervous and anxious and with unknowns. It was in the back of mind the entire warm up. “The whole day I knew I needed to shoot 5-under. I said that on the car ride here. I was trying to shoot seven or eight (under). But I knew five (under) was the lowest or the highest I wanted to shoot.â€� When he was 1-over through his opening seven holes things did not look promising.  But five birdies in his next seven holes meant he needed just one more in the last four holes to break the 72-hole mark. Par on 15. Par on 16. Par on 17… It would come down the to the last again. “I knew I needed to birdie 18 on Sunday to break Tommy Armour’s record so it was something to aim at for sure,â€� he said. “To do it was cool. This week was something different. For me to win by seven is a huge, huge deal to me. I know if I get there again in the future, I will be able to have this to look back on.â€� Of course history shows Thomas would win twice more last season, including a maiden major championship, to take his tally for the year to five and set him up for his win in the FedExCup.   STATS THAT MATTERED  Thomas ranked first in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and second for Strokes Gained: Putting on his way to victory at Waialae. He was also fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green as part of a well-rounded performance.  His +1.886 per round gained on the greens marked a career best for him on the PGA TOUR at the time. He led the field in driving distance at 309.6 yards and was 18.3 yards longer than the tournament average and 4.6 yards longer than second placed Tony Finau. A whopping 69.6 percent of his drives were over 300 yards. This translated into the shortest average approach after tee shots at 21.2 yards shorter than the field. He averaged just 138 yards left on approach.

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ST. AUGUSTINE, Fla. - Willie Mack, fresh off of two starts on the PGA TOUR, and ranked collegiate golfer Mahindra Lutchman from Florida A&M University, shot 4 under-par 68s to take a share of the first round lead in the APGA Tour at World Golf Village tournament Monday at the renowned King & Bear layout. Mack is the Flint, Michigan, native who played in both the Farmers Insurance Open and The Genesis Invitational as a sponsor exemption in recent weeks after a decade as a top player on the APGA Tour and other pro golf series. Lutchman is a senior at Florida A&M in nearby Tallahassee who is the No. 3-ranked player in the APGA Collegiate Golf Ranking compiled by PGA TOUR University. They are two shots clear of second place finisher Daniel Augustus of Bermuda, and three shots ahead of a group that includes Landon Lyons of Baton Rouge, Louisiana, a two-time winner on the APGA Tour this year. The field of 49 players is competing for $25,000 in prize money with the tournament final round tomorrow on the 7,279-yard, par 72 golf course designed by Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer. Mack, who sank a 30-foot putt for birdie on No. 12, was happy with the way he handled the blustery conditions. "When the wind is blowing, you need your short game and that was working for me today," he said after carding five birdies but closing with bogey on the par-5 18th hole. Did the PGA TOUR experience help me today? Definitely." Mack was 1 under after 14 holes in the Farmers Insurance Open first round before eventually missing the cut there and at The Genesis Invitational. Lutchman, who is joined in the field by teammate and APGA Collegiate Ranking No. 1 Mulbe Dillard, bogeyed the first hole but vaulted into contention with all pars and five birdies, including on 17 and 18. Dillard shot a three-over 75. If Lutchman and Dillard can retain their rankings through the spring college golf season, they will be provided with exemptions into the APGA Tour summer events along with expenses and entry into the Pre-Qualifying Stage of the Korn Ferry Tour Qualifying Tournament. The APGA Tour at World Golf Village is the fourth tournament of the landmark 2021 season, featuring a record 13 events and $350,000 in prize money, almost double from the 2020 season for the tour, whose mission is to bring greater diversity to the sport of golf. The tournament is being conducted under social-distancing and health/safety guidelines in conjunction with regional authorities.

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