Sleeper Picks: Zurich Classic of New Orleans

In the final round of the World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational, Japan’s Hideki Matsuyama birdies the last three holes for a sizzling 61 and a dominant five-stroke victory over runner-up Zach Johnson. Meanwhile, Chris Stroud racks up 20 points in the final round to cop his first PGA TOUR win at the Stableford-scoring Barracuda Championship. Welcome to the Monday Finish, where Matsuyama, 25, ties the course record at Firestone South for his third win this season; and Stroud, 35, collects his first TOUR win in 290 starts. FIVE OBSERVATIONS 1. Matsuyama is on the way to becoming Japan’s first truly global star. Nine countries were represented in the top 12 on the Bridgestone leaderboard, but Matsuyama’s clubs spoke loudest and Japan was on top. After starting the day three shots back, he made eagle at the par-5 second hole and kept going from there, hitting the afterburners to assure his third win this season and fifth overall in the 100th TOUR start of his career. He extended his lead as the Japanese player with the most wins on TOUR, a record he already held over Shigeki Maruyama (three). 2. The FedExCup may require math, but Matsuyama knows all too well that it requires something else, too: at least one more trophy. “In order to win the FedExCup, you have to win one of the playoff tournaments,â€� said Matsuyama, who moved from third to first in the FedExCup points standings with the victory in Ohio. “And hopefully I can do that and keep the momentum going.â€� It would be tough to have any more momentum than he currently has; his 61 marked the best final-round performance by a winner in the history of the WGCs—by three shots. 3. Although there have now been 25 wins (in 39 events) by a player in his 20s on TOUR this season, Rory McIlroy, 28, has accounted for none of them. Still, McIlroy, who tied for fifth, did not sound terribly despondent after notching his sixth top-10 this season. “I thought I saw some improvements in my game from when I got here on Wednesday,â€� he said. “Thought my wedge play got a little bit better as the week went on. Putted pretty well, even when I missed putts out there, they were scaring the hole, so that was good. Drove the ball well.â€� Yeah, you could say that. McIlroy hit 52 of 56 tee shots over 300 yards and led the field in driving distance (343.9). The reigning FedExCup champion moved up 10 spots in the standings to 43rd; is playing one of his favorite courses in Quail Hollow at the PGA Championship this week; and knows there’s still plenty of time to find his A game as he breaks in a new caddie. 4. Chris Stroud’s father was right. Stroud got a call from Dad saying the Barracuda’s Stableford format—two points for birdies; minus one for bogeys—might reward him for all the birdies he’d been making. It did. Stroud, who returned to his counter-balanced long putter, racked up 20 points in a wild final round that included nine birdies, an eagle and three bogeys. He not only got that elusive first win after prevailing in a three-man playoff, he earned a spot in this week’s PGA and, more importantly, collected 300 FedExCup points to move up to 76th in the standings. “Huge,â€� Stroud said of his big move. “I think coming into this week I was sitting at 142. And we’re all nervous coming in, because we know getting the top 125 is huge.â€� 5. Rookie Richy Werenski, 25, was disappointed after failing to secure his TOUR card for next season. Still, he was encouraged to make it all the way into a sudden-death playoff despite not having his best stuff. What’s more, he moved to 122nd in the FedExCup, so at least he’s inside the cutoff line with just two weeks remaining before the first playoff event, THE NORTHERN TRUST at Glen Oaks Club in Old Westbury, N.Y., Aug. 24-27. “Lately I feel like I’m playing pretty good,â€� said Werenski, a Massachusetts native who went to Georgia Tech. “It’s only a matter of time I’m back in this position.â€� FIVE INSIGHTS 1. Matsuyama ranked first in strokes gained: tee-to-green in the final round, with a career-best 6.582. It was also the best final-round performance by a winner on TOUR this season, besting Kevin Chappell at the Valero Texas Open (6.355), Jason Dufner at the Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide (5.659), and Jon Rahm at the Farmers Insurance Open (5.168). 2. While he was dominant from tee to green, Matsuyama also made massive strides in his putting. Year to date, he is just 167th in Strokes Gained: Putting (-.306) and 194th in putts made from outside 10 feet (46/375, 12.27%). At the Bridgestone, though, he ranked a much-improved 15th in SG: Putting (.759) and T16 in putting from over 10 feet (9/42, 21.43%). 3. With his runner-up finish, Zach Johnson moved up from 40th to 28th on the U.S. Presidents Cup points list. That’s still a far cry from the top 10, but he’s got the putter rolling again. He was first in SG: Putting (2.258) and third in putting from outside 10 feet (13/46, 28.26 %) at Firestone. 4. Charley Hoffman (third place, six back), who fired a final-round 66 at Firestone, has broken par in 22 of his last 24 rounds dating to the first round of the U.S. Open. He was third in sg: putting (1.617) at the Bridgestone, and moved from 12th to 11th in the FedExCup. He is one of just three players to get at least as far as the BMW Championship for all 10 years of the playoffs. 5. Thomas Pieters (71, solo fourth, eight back) notched his fourth top-five finish in 16 starts this season. As a Special Temporary Member, he is eligible for unlimited sponsor exemptions the rest of the season as he tries to earn his TOUR card for 2017-’18. He was T3 in greens in regulation (72.22%) and fourth in proximity to the hole (26’ 11’’) at the Bridgestone. TOP 3 VIDEOS 1. Charley Hoffman is on TOUR to win and he let us know on Sunday. 2. David Hearn hit a gem of a tee shot in Sunday’s final round of the Barracuda Championship. 3. Poetry in motion.

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ATLANTA – An emotional Tiger Woods broke a five-year win drought, most of which he spent coping with debilitating back pain, and completed a long and arduous career comeback with his victory at the TOUR Championship at East Lake on Sunday. On a difficult day for most of the field, his 1-over 71 gave him a two-shot win over a surging Billy Horschel (66). Dustin Johnson (67) finished alone in third, four back. “There was a point in time I didn’t know if I’d ever do this again,â€� Woods said. He meant merely playing golf, not winning, and admitted to being near tears as he came down 18. For more on Woods’ comeback, click here. Justin Rose, who began the final day three off the lead and needing to finish in a two-way tie for fifth, at worst, struggled for most of the day. Knowing he needed to birdie either 17 or 18 to win the FedExCup, he birdied the par-5 18th after hitting the green in two. The closing birdie gave him a final-round 73 and left him in a three-way tie for fourth. It was Rose’s worst round of the week by five, but it was good enough, and he became the second European winner of the FedExCup in the last three years (Rory McIlroy, ’16). “A ton of top 10s,â€� Rose said, explaining his success. “Obviously had a couple of wins on the PGA TOUR, as well, this year, and managed to keep that going into the Playoffs with finishing the year with three top 5s. There were a lot of scenarios at play.â€� Woods’ victory at the TOUR Championship capped a season of comeback victories that included Phil Mickelson at the World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship and extended all the way down to Paul Casey, Gary Woodland, Kevin Na and Keegan Bradley. Woods did most of the work for this one Thursday through Saturday, when he made over 300 feet of putts and posted scores of 65-68-65. Taking a three-shot lead into the last round, he birdied the first hole and watched his closest pursuers, Rory McIlroy and Rose, slide backward. “I felt like if I just went out there and did my own thing and shot under par, the tournament would be over,â€� Woods said after he made pars at the last two holes to salt away the victory. He didn’t shoot under par, and the lead went down to two after he bogeyed the 15th and 16th holes, but he did collect his 80th PGA TOUR win, two behind all-time leader Sam Snead. The only tense moment was when the huge crowd broke free and followed Woods and McIlroy down the 18th fairway. Woods said he heard it but didn’t see it as he didn’t turn around. “That was awesome,â€� said Woods’ caddie, Joe LaCava. “I thought that was terrific. And I kept telling the cops, ‘As long as they don’t trample us, let ’em keep comin’.’ Why not?â€� It was Woods’ first win since the 2013 World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational.  OBSERVATIONS FEDEXCUP PROVIDES DRAMA: The winner of the FedExCup was in doubt for most of the day after Justin Rose sputtered for the first 16 holes, throwing everything up in the air. When the wild Rose had to work hard just to salvage a bogey at the tough, par-4 14th hole, it dropped him into a three-way tie for fourth, and going the wrong direction. His struggles continued as he drove into the trees at the 16th hole and dropped his driver in disgust. At this point it began to look like Woods, who came into the week at a distant 20th in the standings, was on the verge of winning his third FedExCup in addition to the TOUR Championship. Dustin Johnson, putting cross-handed for the first time in his career, worked his way up the leaderboard but missed a six-foot birdie try at the 18th hole. Although he still shot a final-round 67, Johnson’s miss was big, taking him out of consideration for FedExCup No. 1. That left the spoils to either Woods or Rose, who finally stabilized with no time to spare. He hit the fairway at the par-4 17th hole and gave himself a birdie look but left it short. Needing to birdie the last, he crushed a 359-yard drive down the fairway and reached the green with his second shot, leaving himself a relatively easy two-putt birdie for the FedExCup. “I knew I had to birdie one of the last two,â€� Rose said, “and I actually said to myself, I’m glad we’re playing East Lake this way around, because if I had to birdie 17 or 18 the other way around, it would have been a pretty tough proposition.â€� (The nines had been switched since Woods first won the TOUR Championship at East Lake, in 2007.) “So I knew that there were two birdie holes,â€� Rose continued. “The key was hitting the ball in the fairway at No. 17. I did that, hit a wedge right over the top of the pin. I thought that was going to actually be much tighter than it actually was. And a super quick putt, but I knew it wasn’t a putt to try and race at that point because 18 is a par-5, it’s a birdie hole. And I had to play the long game in my mind and just trust the fact that I could birdie 18 to win.â€� NOTABLES PHIL MICKELSON – Shot 72 and finished last at 13 over for the week, but a three-birdie, one-bogey back nine Sunday at least provided reason for optimism at he heads to Paris for the Ryder Cup. Mickelson lingered around the tail end of the field in both Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (he hit just 25/56 fairways) and Strokes Gained: Putting. The off-week with the putter was the big surprise, given that he was second to Jason Day in that stat coming into the week. BUBBA WATSON – Three-time winner ended comeback season on a sour note with final-round 75 that left him second from last. Hit just 21/56 fairways, worst in the field. PATRICK REED – Masters champion shot a final-round 72 to finish near the back of the pack at 9-over. Reed hit just 23 fairways for the week, two fewer than Mickelson. BRYSON DECHAMBEAU – FedExCup No. 1 and two-time Playoffs winner ran off a streak of four straight birdies but hit his tee shot in the water at the 226-yard, par-3 15th hole and did well to make bogey. Three-putt from 11 feet at the 17th hole also left a sour taste. Needing help from Rose to win the FedExCup, DeChambeau didn’t get it, but his final-round 67 was another step in the right direction after a rough opening 36 holes, and left him a very respectable 2-under total. QUOTABLES I would have hit it the same way.This is a tough, tough golf course. Lots of opportunities to slip up.You know what? I could still blade this thing out of bounds. SUPERLATIVES Low round: 5-under 65 by Rickie Fowler and Hideki Matsuyama. Longest drive: 361 yards (Gary Woodland/No. 14) Longest putt: 39’ 3â€� (Bryson DeChambeau/No. 14) Toughest hole: The 455-yard, par-4 first played to a 4.300 average. Easiest hole: The 525-yard, par-5 sixth played to a 4.267 average. CALL OF THE DAY For play-by-play coverage of the PGA TOUR, listen at PGATOUR.COM. SHOT OF THE DAY

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2023 Fortinet Championship, Round 2 Top 10 win probabilities: 1. Max Homa (T1, -12, 40.1%) 2. Danny Willett (T1, -12, 18.4%) 3. Justin Lower (T3, -10, 6.8%) 4. Byeong Hun An (T3, -10, 6.4%) 5. Sahith Theegala (T5, -8, 4.2%) 6. Matt Kuchar (T5, -8, 3.7%) 7. Taylor Moore (T5, -8, 3.5%) 8. Robby Shelton (T8, -7, 1.0%) 9. Tom Hoge (T16, -5, 0.9%) 10. Ben Martin (T8, -7, 0.7%) Top Strokes-Gained Performers from Round 2: Putting: Danny Willett +4.1 Around the Green: Dylan Wu +2.4 Approach the Green: Trey Mullinax +3.4 Off-the-tee: Austin Eckroat +2.4 Total: Danny Willett +7.9 NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Fortinet Championship, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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