Sleeper Picks: The American Express

Danny Lee … Sometimes an eye with experience in understanding a generalized value over growing popularity of a sharper focus is more valuable this early in a season. While his six starts in 2019-20 isn’t below average, the fact that his best two results by far occurred in tournaments without ShotLink presents an example as to why a grain of salt often is required when reviewing everyone in depth before relying on any one statistic. For example, of the 236 golfers who qualify to be ranked officially in the stats, he’s 218th in Strokes Gained: Putting, but neither his solo second at THE CJ CUP @ NINE BRIDGES nor his T10 at The ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP contribute to measured data because ShotLink wasn’t active. Consider that at Nine Bridges, he led the field in both scrambling and fewest putts per round, ranked second in one-putt percentage and placed T8 in putts per GIR. Overall in his six starts, he’s 38th in scrambling, 44th in fewest putts per round, 48th in one-putt percentage and 53rd in putts per GIR, stats influenced by every tournament, not just those with ShotLink. Peter Malnati … Who better than one of the best putters on the PGA TOUR to deserve elevated expectations in a putting contest cloaked by a shootout? Not only did he finished T18 at The American Express last year, but last week’s T12 at Waialae was his best showing in individual competition on TOUR in four years. He paced the Sony field in one-putt percentage and fewest putts per round. Overall this season, he’s 13th in Strokes Gained: Putting, 16th in putting: birdies-or-better and second in both one-putt percentage and fewest putts per round. Maverick McNealy … On the Korn Ferry Tour in 2019, he cruised through on the strength of confident putting. Ranked fifth on the circuit in putts per GIR and eighth in putting: birdies-or-better. It’s a skill that he’s taken to the PGA TOUR where the rookie is 45th in Strokes Gained: Putting, T21 in one-putt percentage and 10th in putting: birdies-or-better. It’s a bonus that the 24-year-old slots T28 in par-5 scoring average. After opening the season with a pair of missed cuts, he walked off the fall with six consecutive cuts made that included a season-best T17 in Houston. Bronson Burgoon … With only 41 cuts made in a career 78 PGA TOUR starts as a professional and just five top 10s to his name, he’s not a talent to whom you often point to contend. Yet, he’s figured it out with timely precision to have retained enough status to remain on the radar. If you were going to settle on a commonality as to why he’s landed on leaderboards, you’re going to find numerous occasions that yield low scores. It’s manifested itself already thrice this season with one top 10 among a trio of top 20s. The success is supported by a potent putter. Currently 18th on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting, T7 in one-putt percentage and sixth in putting: birdies-or-better. Seung-Yul Noh … Making his first PGA TOUR start since the inaugural edition of THE CJ CUP @ NINE BRIDGES in October of 2017. He then spent nearly two years fulfilling his military conscription in his native South Korea before returning to competition for a pair of starts in his homeland last fall. The latter resulted a T6 at the Genesis Championship (won by Sungjae Im). Noh, who modified his ball flight to a fade during his time away, is 28 years of age and one year younger than when fellow countryman Sangmoon Bae began his military assignment in 2015, so there’s reason to believe that time is on Noh’s side whereas Bae struggled mightily in his return to the PGA TOUR. Armed with a full season’s worth of starts via a status extension (in the Major Medical category), Noh also can tap into the positive experience of a T17 in 2016 when the current rotation of course first hosted The American Express. NOTE: Sleeper is a relative term, so Rob uses unofficial criteria to determine who qualifies. Each of the following usually is determined to be ineligible for this weekly staple: Winners of the tournament on the current host course; winners in the same season; recent major champions; top 50 in the Official World Golf Ranking; recent participants of team competitions.

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