Sleeper Picks: Rocket Mortgage Classic

2019 Waste Management Phoenix Open, End of Round 1: Overall scoring average: -0.61 strokes per round Morning wave: -0.67 Afternoon wave: -0.56 Current cutline: 70 players at -1 or better (T56th position) Top 3 most likely projected cutlines: 1 under par: 28.8% 2 under par: 22.8% Even par: 22.1% Notable players below the cutline: Tony Finau (+1, 63.3% Made Cut probability) Billy Horschel (E, 64.8%) Zach Johnson (E, 61.6%) Top 5 win probabilities: Justin Thomas (T1, -7, 20.6%) Rickie Fowler (T1, -7, 15.5%) Jon Rahm (T11, -4, 7.3%) Xander Schauffele (T11, -4, 4.9%) Harold Varner III (T1, -7, 4.7%) NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Waste Management Phoenix Open, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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You have to admit – your excitement level rose when you saw Tiger Woods committed to the World Golf Championships – Dell Technologies Match Play for the first time since 2013. If you’re old enough you remember all three of his match play titles – all of which came in single elimination format – were great theatre. The greatest stood toe to toe with multiple challengers and shot them all down. But you probably also remember some of the down times. Some of the upstarts who knocked Woods out. One of the great trivia questions … which journeyman Australian knocked Woods out in the early rounds twice? Don’t know? Well let’s take a look at Woods history at the event below and you’ll be an expert from now on. 1999 – WELCOME TO MATCH PLAY The very first match up for Tiger Woods in the inaugural event held at La Costa Resort and Spa came against a legend on his way down from the top. Woods entered the event at the No. 1 seed when the format was single elimination. He would open against the 64th seeded Nick Faldo, who was drafted into the field after Jumbo Osaki was a WD. Faldo was 41 at the time and had his three Masters wins behind him whereas Woods was a 23-year-old star with just the one major, the 1997 Masters, to his name. Such was the changing of the guard feel one gallery member yelled out “Ask him for strokes, Nick!â€� after Faldo’s opening drive found an awkward bunker lie. Woods was never really tested and breezed to a 4 and 3 win. “I’m not going to feel sorry for him,â€� Woods said. “He’s had his chances to win tournaments.â€� Woods would go on to take down 33rd seeded Bob Tway 1-up before dispatching No. 48 Stewart Cink 2 and 1. Then the upset hit. Woods faced No. 24 seed Jeff Maggert in the quarterfinals. With just one PGA TOUR title to his name (1993) and a reputation for failing in the clutch, Maggert wasn’t expected to match up with the steely Woods. In fact, Woods was the only top 20 seed left in the final eight players and as such was seemingly heading towards victory. But Maggert was near flawless and would make five birdies in an eight hole stretch to win 2 and 1 and send Woods home. “Tiger was the dragon, and someone had to slay him,â€� Maggert said at the time. “Anybody can beat anybody. That is what has been happening all week,â€� Woods lamented. “Yes (I’m frustrated). Why? I didn’t win. Plain and simple.â€� 2000 – SHOCK FINAL LOSS After being bundled out in the quarterfinals a year earlier Woods came to the 2000 edition of the tournament in the throes of some of his best ever golf. He’d added a second major title at the 1999 PGA Championship to his resume and was about to dominate the golfing world throughout the 2000 season. Woods would win nine times in 2000 including three majors – two of his wins had already come at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, but in February at La Costa he would surprisingly come up just short. As the No. 1 seed Woods opened up with a 5 and 4 demolition job over 64th seed Michael Campbell. Wins over 32nd seed Retief Goosen (1-up), 48th seed Shigeki Maruyama (4 and 3) current Open Champion Paul Lawrie (1-up) followed. A year after having four low seeds get to the end organizers were licking their lips when Woods was joined in the final four by No. 2 seed David Duval and the 4th seeded Davis Love III. Woods had wrestled the world No. 1 mark back from Duval in 1999 and it seemed a mighty prospect the pair could meet in the final. Woods played his part, annihilating Love III 5 and 4. But Duval was unable to win his semi-final, succumbing 4 and 2 to Northern Ireland’s Darren Clarke. And so it was No. 1 against No. 19 for Sunday’s 36-hole final. Clarke was friendly with Woods. They shared the same swing coach in Butch Harmon at the time and the Northern Irishman was not afraid to mix it up verbally with Woods. He, unlike many others, was not intimidated by the young star. In the final the two produced a brilliant start with 11 birdies between them over the first 12 holes. While the haymakers subsided down the stretch of the opening 18 a short-missed putt on the 18th from Clarke meant the two were all square heading to the afternoon. Interestingly Woods used the lunch break to get some practice on the range after being unhappy with his swing while Clarke relaxed in the clubhouse. Many figured Woods would put his foot on the gas in the afternoon and claim the title. Instead, Clarke came out firing and four birdies in the opening eight holes gave him a four-hole lead. Clarke turned a strength of Woods’ against him. While Woods would outdrive Clarke by some 30 yards on most holes, Clarke saw it as a chance to be the player to apply pressure. His approach shots were routinely clutch, forcing Woods to take aim at pins. The American’s accuracy was lacking and despite winning the 9th and 11th holes Woods lost the 10th and 12th to stall any comeback thoughts. Soon it was all over with an upset 4 and 3 result. “Darren just flat out outplayed me today. He hit the ball beautifully, made a lot of putts. He played beautifully today; I just couldn’t quite hit the shots the way I wanted to. I only hit one good shot in the afternoon. And I just wasn’t able to put a lot of pressure on him,â€� Woods said. “To play as well as that under the circumstances today, against the best player in the world, is certainly very gratifying. Of course anytime to win a tournament is fantastic, but to play against Tiger … and to come out on top, it’s a great feeling,â€� Clarke said. 2002 – THE HUGE UPSET It was one of those good news, bad news calls. The good news for journeyman Australian Peter O’Malley was he was in the elite field at La Costa when Jose Coceres was a WD with a broken arm. The bad news? As the new 64th seed he faced Tiger Woods in the opening match. Plenty in the USA had never heard of him. And they didn’t think he’d be much of a road block for Woods. But O’Malley had three European Tour wins to his name, including one from the year before. He was deadly accurate with the driver, leading the European Tour in the stat at the time. “I had a no-lose situation, really. No one expected me to win, so I can just go out there and play my game and if I win, well, it’s great and if I don’t, it doesn’t really matter,â€� O’Malley said. And he did play well. Having fallen behind early to Woods thanks to some sloppy bunker play, O’Malley birdied the eighth and ninth holes to take the lead. He would never relinquish it and had moved to 3-up with three to play. Woods decided he wasn’t going down easy. A 30-foot birdie on the 16th sent it another hole and the now 80-time PGA TOUR winner’s approach on 17 was to near gimme range having everyone anticipating a trip down the last. Instead O’Malley stepped up and buried a 25-foot birdie for a 2 and 1 win. “It’s not exactly the greatest of feelings,â€� Woods said. “But it’s one of those things where anything can happen in match play. And it does.â€� 2003 – FINALLY THE WIN EVERYONE EXPECTED A year after being bundled out at the first hurdle Woods returned to La Costa Country Club a man on a mission. He was still on the comeback trail from knee surgery but once again, he was the top seed and had recently won the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines just down the road. This time No. 64 was not getting the best of him. In fact in both his first round 2 and 1 win over Carl Pettersson and his second round 1-up win over 32nd seed K.J. Choi Woods failed to make a bogey. Perhaps remembering his exit the year before to a lesser known Australian, Woods then demolished 48th seed Stephen Leaney 7 and 6. He won six of the first seven holes and was never headed. The 25th seed Scott Hoch was also no match as Woods went on to win 5 and 4. In the semifinal he would meet another Aussie, but this time it was an up and coming star in Adam Scott. And their battle was a good one. Scott, just 22 years old at the time, sat 2-up through seven holes before Woods struck. Woods took the eighth and ninth to get back square. He would take his first lead at the 12th hole when Scott lipped out a five-foot par putt. Scott would win the 14th hole to square it with a 37-foot birdie bomb but Woods would again gain the ascendancy at 15 with a six-foot birdie dagger. When Woods stiffed it at the 188-yard par-3 16th to tap in range Scott refused to fold, hitting his own ball to 12 feet and making the putt. The Australian then won the 18th hole to send it to extras. But it was over soon after when Scott missed a three-footer in sudden death. Woods was into the final for the first time since 2000 where he would meet No. 6 seed David Toms over 36 holes. Woods grabbed control of the final over Toms in the morning round, coming in with a 4-up lead at the interval. But any thought of cruising to victory had to be cast aside as the plucky Toms fought to the end and actually produced a fairly dramatic comeback. With 11 holes to play Woods was still holding his commanding lead. But then a couple of sloppy bogeys from Woods and some timely Toms birdies meant they came to the 35th hole of the match with Woods now just 1-up. After a wild drive from Toms, Woods went for the safety of a 3-wood and split the fairway. Although Woods’ 7-iron approach found a greenside bunker Toms was having bigger issues and had failed to reach the green in three shots. Woods splashed out to three-feet and when Toms failed to chip in, Woods buried the putt for the 2 and 1 win. “I expect to go out there and win every tournament I play in, because that’s my level of expectations. That’s what I strive to do. If I show up at a tournament, that’s my goal. And I’ve accomplished my goal two out of three weeks,â€� Woods said. 2004 – TITLE DEFENSE When Woods returned to defend his title in February 2004, he had been without a PGA TOUR victory since early October 2003. Hardly a massive drought, but still unexpected for the world’s best player. First up he took on 64th seed John Rollins and was just a couple of holes away from being sent packing early. Rollins had Woods on the ropes at times with only some clutch par saves keeping the champion in the match. On the par-4 17th Rollins held a 1-up lead and had hit his approach shot safely on to the green, but he had an uneasy feeling. “I told my caddie that he’s due any minute to hit one of those towering shots that sit right by the flag and it just so happens he must have heard me and he hit it right there by the hole,â€� Rollins said after Woods stuffed his approach inside two feet for a birdie from 171-yards out. “I know that that’s when he shines. That’s what a champion like that does. When there’s a situation, he takes advantage of it, and he did it again.â€� Woods would also birdie the last to snatch a 1-up victory. The scare kicked his title defense into overdrive. He would smash 32nd seed Trevor Immelman 5 and 4 and then do the same to 17th seed Fredrick Jacobson. Woods would then dispatch ninth seed Padraig Harrington and 29th seed Stephen Leaney 2 and 1 to return to the 36-hole final and a match up against Davis Love III. The same man Woods had bested 5 and 4 in the semifinals in 2000 and he had beaten in a playoff to win his first ever PGA TOUR event in Las Vegas in 1996. Woods would play the opening 18 holes in scratchy fashion, trailing by two holes until Love III missed a short putt on the 18th to cut it to one hole. It was a theme for Love III in the morning round, letting slip multiple chances to build a sizable lead. By the 20th hole Woods had squared the match and Love III was dealing with a heckler in the crowd who was eventually kicked out. On the 25th hole Woods took the lead and never relinquished it, eventually defending his title with a 3 and 2 win. “From the first tee on, it’s just eyeball to eyeball, let’s go, let’s have some fun, let’s compete. That, to me, is exciting,â€� Woods said. “I don’t see how you cannot get up for these things because it is such a great event with the best players in the year.â€� Woods’ win was his 40th on the PGA TOUR in just his 149th start. He was 28 years old. Jack Nicklaus played 221 times before his 40th win. 2005 & 2007 – THE O’HERN UPSETS When Tiger Woods returned to attempt a three-peat in 2005 the biggest shock was he was no longer the top seed. Woods’ title defense would be his only official PGA TOUR win of 2004. He’d end the year with 14 top 10s from 19 starts while Vijay Singh dominated on the way to a nine-win season. In the early stages of 2005 both Singh and Woods had managed a victory heading to La Costa. Everyone was hopeful the pair could come together in an epic final … neither got out of the second round. Woods took care of an aging 63rd seeded Nick Price 4 and 3 before he was dusted up 3 and 1 by left-handed Australian Nick O’Hern. It was only O’Hern’s second appearance at the event, with his prior one coming in 2001 as the 39th alternate. (The event was taken to Australia that year and a multitude of stars, including Woods, declined to travel). O’Hern played simple, accurate golf and never trailed. “I thought if I played well I’d have a real good chance, and he’d have to play some really good golf to beat me. We had a really good match; it was a lot of fun,â€� O’Hern said afterward. “You just have to go ahead and plod along, and that’s what Nick does. He’s very consistent, very solid. He has an amazing short game. And I didn’t make a lot of mistakes. The difference is that he made enough birdies to win the match,â€� Woods said. As if that defeat wasn’t annoying enough for Woods, two years later in 2007 he would find himself up against O’Hern again – this time at a new venue at Dove Mountain in Tucson, Arizona. The match came in the third round after top seed Woods beat 64th seed J.J. Henry 3 and 2 and 32nd seed Tim Clark 5 and 3. Surely Woods would have his revenge. Particularly as he was in the midst of an incredible winning streak. Woods had won his last seven starts on the PGA TOUR dating back to an Open Championship win in July of 2006. He’d also won his own Hero World Challenge in that incredible run. Instead O’Hern, the 16th seed that year, prevailed in 20 holes after Woods uncharacteristically missed a critical short putt. Woods was wild early and O’Hern was 4-up through seven holes. But by 15 holes the match was all square as Woods put the hammer down. The Australian refused to wilt and went 1-up through 17 only to see Woods step up in the clutch with a 5-foot birdie on the 18th to send it to sudden death. Woods then had a four-foot putt on the first extra hole to win but missed it as it bobbled off a ball mark he’d failed to notice. A hole later O’Hern made a par from 13-feet to win. “I was so enthralled with the line, I didn’t see the ball mark,â€� Woods said. “I knew if I hit it left center, the match would be over. It’s my fault for not paying attention to detail.â€� 2006 – THE AMES ANNIHILATION Sandwiched between the O’Hern shockers was one of the great Woods moments. In 2006, the last time the tournament would be held at La Costa, Woods would open the event as the first seed against rival Stephen Ames. Ames was drafted in late as the 64th seed and famously quipped in the lead up, “Anything can happen, especially where he’s hitting the ball.â€� This came after Ames had taken aim at a young Woods back in 2000, claiming “He doesn’t look like he has enough respect for other players. Tiger’s coming across as bigger than the game … he’s a spoiled 24-year-old.â€� The result of the grudge match was a 9 and 8 pummeling. Woods won every hole on the front nine, seven of them with birdies. A par to halve on the 10th was enough to set the record for biggest ever victory. “Stephen provided it, definitely,â€� Woods said of his motivation. “I think he understands now.â€� Woods would beat Robert Allenby – who amazingly poked the champ with a “he’s definitely beatableâ€� quote of his own – 1-up before falling in an upset to Chad Campbell in the third round. Campbell won 1-up when Woods was unable to drain a 12-footer on the last to send it to extra holes. 2008 – A WINNER ONCE MORE After three years of earlier than expected exits Tiger Woods returned to Dove Mountain in 2008 ready to make a statement. He had won four of the last five PGA TOUR events he played in 2007 – and was second in the other one – and had won his first start of 2008 also at Torrey Pines. But the No. 1 seed needed to dig deep in his opening match to stop another quick trip home. Playing 64th seeded J.B. Holmes Woods was three down through 13 holes and under the pump. Three birdies in a row helped him to square the match heading to 17th hole. Then he drained a 35-foot eagle to take the lead and prevail 1-up “You’re playing the best player in the world, 3-up with five to play,â€� Holmes said. “I just said, ‘Don’t do anything stupid. Make him beat you.’ And he did.â€� From there Woods thumped 33rd seed Arron Oberholser 5 and 3 but needed 20 holes to get rid of 16th seed Aaron Baddeley. Baddeley had nine birdies, but Woods had 12 in an epic match. Woods beat 25th seed K.J. Choi 3 and 2 and Henrik Stenson 2-up to set up a 36-hole final with Stewart Cink. He didn’t come close to needing 36 holes. Woods destroyed Cink with 14 birdies in 29 holes to win 8 and 7, the largest final victory in the events history. It was his fifth straight worldwide win and 15th World Golf Championship win. He held all three of the WGC titles of the time with the win. “I think this is the best stretch I’ve ever played,â€� Woods said. “I think maybe we ought to slice him open to see what’s inside,â€� Cink said. “Maybe nuts and bolts.â€� 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013 – DECLINING AURA After his 2008 triumph Woods has played in the tournament only four more times in the last 10 years. None of those occasions were overly eventful for the legend. In 2009, with Woods in the midst of his comeback from knee surgery, South African Tim Clark beat the American in the second round 4 and 2. In 2011, Thomas Bjorn bounced Woods in the opening round in 19 holes after it looked as though Woods’ clutch birdie on the 18th would spur a comeback win. Instead his tee shot on the 19th hole went way right and into desert bush, resulting in a conceded hole and match. In 2012, Nick Watney was the conqueror, winning 1-up in the second round. Woods was again seemingly making a late rally after being two down with three to play but missed a 5-foot putt on the last to extend the match. Woods missed three putts inside 10 feet on the last six holes. “I was fighting the blocks all day with my putter,â€� he said. “Left-to-right putt, I took it slightly shut right there, and I knew it – and blocked it open … I just didn’t make a putt when I needed it.â€� And in 2013, his last appearance until this season, Charles Howell III won their opening round match up 2 and 1. It was played over two days after a stunning snow storm hit the Arizona desert but Woods never led. “I played well, I really did. I hit a lot of good shots out there,â€� Woods said. “I didn’t make a bogey out there. Unfortunately it’s the nature of the format, and I’m not advancing.â€� What can Woods do at Austin Country Club in his first time in the round robin format? We’re about to find out.

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