Sleeper Picks: Masters Tournament

This month, we are providing predictions for the 2017 FedExCup Playoffs, the four-tournament run that begins this week at THE NORTHERN TRUST. The predictions are probabilistic; using 30,000 simulations from our statistical model, for each player in this week’s field, we calculate their probability of advancing to the Dell Technologies Championship, the BMW Championship, the TOUR Championship, and finally, of being crowned the 2017 FedExCup Champion. Additionally, we provide predictions for this week’s event at Glen Oaks Club. Let’s get right to the predictions. (For those interested, details on our model are provided after the tables). We have taken into account those players who have publicly stated their intentions to not play in certain Playoff events. Here are the relevant probabilities for the 30 players with the highest probability of winning the 2017 FedExCup: The results are pretty interesting. First, the top 3 players (Hideki Matsuyama, Dustin Johnson, and Jordan Spieth) capture the lion’s share of the win probability for the FedExCup (52.1 percent!). This is really high; for context, at a major championship, the top 3 win probabilities would typically add up to about 14-17 percent. Second, while a player’s starting rank is clearly important, there are some players who are further down in the rankings that have fairly high win probabilities (Jason Day, Roryt McIlroy). This is mainly due to the fact that to win the FedExCup, you likely have to win an event along the way (and a player like McIlroy is more likely to do this than some of the players currently ranked above him in the FedExCup). Third, notice that the top 10 players in the current FedExCup rankings are guaranteed a spot in the TOUR Championship. Next, we highlight the players who are near the bubble for advancing to next week’s Dell Technologies Championship. Specifically, here are numbers 83 to 118 in the current FedExCup standings, ordered according to a player’s probability of advancing to next week: Notice that all players ranked 83rd or better in the current standings are guaranteed to advance to next week. According to our model, there are 10-12 spots that are really up for grabs (depending how much of a sure thing you feel 90 percent is). Finally, we have also predicted each player’s probability of winning, finishing in the top 5, finishing in the top 20, and making the cut at THE NORTHERN TRUST. Here are the 25 players with the highest win probabilities this week: To view the full interactive tables for the FedExCup Playoffs predictions, click here and for THE NORTHERN TRUST, click here. Now, a bit about our model and how we simulate a round of golf. If you understand how to simulate a single round, then it’s not a big step to understanding how we simulate the FedExCup. Keeping things as simple as possible, our statistical model can be thought of as proceeding in two steps. First, we assign each player an expected score, based off of various characteristics of the player. For example, two-year scoring average is one input, as is the player’s performance at his previous event (although the former is much more important than the latter). Second, to simulate a round of golf with our model, we add a mean-zero random term to each player’s expected score. So, while Rory McIlroy has a better expected score than most other players, in some simulations he will lose to players who have worse expected scores than him because he got a bad draw of his random term (or the other golfers got very good draws). Additionally, players who are more consistent are given less variation in their random term. We perform many simulations, and from these we can calculate the desired probabilities (ex: McIlroy’s win probability is defined as the fraction of simulations where he was the winner). The full details on our statistical model for predicting PGA TOUR events can be found here. Brothers Matt and Will Courchene grew up in a Canadian household full of golf fanatics. In 2016, they launched a DataGolf blog in hopes of contributing fresh and unbiased insights to the sport. Matt, a PhD student at the Vancouver School of Economics, focuses on applied econometrics and causal inference, while Will, who has a Masters of Economics from the University of Toronto, focuses on statistical modeling and data visualization.

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AVONDALE, La. – Jim Furyk and David Duval said they’d be the rustiest team at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, but the veterans put on a vintage display to fire a 7-under 65 at TPC Louisiana on Thursday. In Four-ball play, the duo negotiated their way through an early downpour and then turned back the clock to put themselves high on the leaderboard. At one point they actually had the lead, perhaps to their surprise, but ended the morning wave inside the top 10 teams. “We hung in there. Wasn’t necessarily the prettiest, but it was solid. Wasn’t like we had 36 looks at birdies; there was a few up and downs; a few good saves; and a couple good birdie putts,â€� Duval said. “It was solid, but it wasn’t entirely like smoke and mirrors. It was pretty solid.â€� Duval – the 13-time PGA TOUR winner and former World No. 1 who these days spends his time as a Golf Channel analyst – found some of his old magic with four of the team’s seven birdies. The 46-year-old started to tire late, but this wasn’t a surprise as he’s played just seven TOUR events in the last three seasons, missing the cut in all of them. Earlier this season he missed the cut at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am but this time around he was able to get some serious preparation in. “Fortunately, with my work schedule I’ve had the last couple weeks off since the Masters. I actually went down, took my clubs — which I’ve never traveled with clubs — took them to the Masters and practiced down there when I had the opportunity,â€� he explained. “Then I had a couple weeks at home, of which a good eight or nine of those days cooperated weather-wise. Then I met up with my old coach as well, talked with him and met up with him down here on Monday.â€� Duval was thankful for the format change that saw the tournament open up with Four-ball rather than Foursomes. While well placed after the opening round, Friday’s alternate shot format will be a different beast all together. “The alternate shot is certainly a more nerve-racking format,â€� Duval said. “And add to it that you’re playing it for a score, not just matches, match play per hole.â€� Furyk is in the midst of a comeback of sorts of his own, the 47-year-old is in just his seventh start this season after shoulder issues last year. “I’m glad we kind of got settled today, put up a decent score. I think the key tomorrow is — our whole thought process coming in here, is we want to have fun. It’s two buddies getting back together, playing golf,â€� Furyk said. “We have to keep that same attitude tomorrow. We’re here to have a good time and have fun. If we can do that, we may put up a decent score.â€�

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