Sleeper picks: 3M Open

It took 377 points to qualify for this year’s FedExCup Playoffs. The top 125 in the standings all have the same destination, the PGA TOUR’s postseason, but they arrived there in myriad ways. Some players did it with consistency. Their presence on the weekend was all but guaranteed as they steadily accrued points on a weekly basis. Others rode a few hot weeks into the top 125 in the FedExCup standings. Some players did the bulk of their work almost a year ago, during the fall portion of the 2017-18 season. Others, like a college student cramming for a physics test, waited until the 11th hour to earn their points. Here’s a closer look at the different ways in which players qualified for the FedExCup Playoffs: MOST POINTS PER START First, let’s look at average points earned per start. It should be no surprise that the top players in the FedExCup standings also top this list. Prize distribution is always top-heavy, and it’s no different with FedExCup points. A win is worth 500 points at most events, while a 10th-place finish is worth 75. Point values drop quickly at the top of the leaderboard. Each stroke is so important when a player is in contention. The top players also tend to compete in fewer events than the players in the middle of the pack. That helps them have a higher average. For reference, a third-place finish in most events is worth 190 points. A fourth-place finish is worth 135. Each player’s FedExCup ranking is listed next to their name. It should be no surprise that Dustin Johnson tops this list. He has finished in the top 3 in seven of his 16 starts this season (three wins, two runners-up and two third-place finishes). He has 10 top-10s and has finished outside the top 25 just three times. Brooks Koepka’s two major wins are worth 600 points apiece, and he’s played just 13 times after sitting out with a wrist injury. His propensity to play well in big events helps, too. THE PLAYERS and World Golf Championships also offer extra points. He finished 11th at THE PLAYERS and had two top-fives in WGCs (T2, HSBC Champions; T5, Bridgestone Invitational). Johnson and Justin Rose are the only players to have top-10s in more than half their starts. Rose has eight top-10s, including two wins, in 14 starts. It’s worth noting that Tiger Woods is the highest-ranked player without a win. Those 500-plus points earned for a win can skew a player’s average earnings. PERCENTAGE EARNED IN ONE START Sometimes it takes just one good finish to crack the top 125, especially if that is a win. Along with the 500 (or more) points that a victory brings, there also is a two-year exemption and a spot in THE PLAYERS Championship, Sentry Tournament of Champions, PGA Champions and possible starts in some World Golf Championships. Five players earned more than half their points in a single start, led by RBC Heritage champion Satoshi Kodaira. His only other top-25 in 16 starts was a T20 at the Fort Worth Invitational. Like Kodaira, Michael Kim and Ted Potter Jr. had just one top-10 this season. It was a win. Sean O’Hair and James Hahn both had a runner-up as their only top-10. Kim has qualified for the Playoffs in three consecutive seasons with just two career top-10s. He didn’t have a top-10 in his rookie season but finished 118th in the FedExCup. He started the 2017 season with a T3 at the Safeway Open. It was his only top-10 of the season. He went on to finish 100th in the standings. This year, his Deere win is his only top-10 of the season. On the opposite end of the spectrum, 30 players qualified for the FedExCup Playoffs while earning less than one-fifth of their points in a single start. Charley Hoffman is the only player to qualify for the Playoffs without a top-10 finish. The others on this list displayed impressive consistency, even if they didn’t contend often. Zach Johnson, for example, finished in the top 25 in 14 of 22 starts but had just two top-10s. Ryan Moore had 10 top-25s in 20 starts, including five top-10s. His highest finish was a T5 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. PERCENTAGE EARNED IN TOP THREE STARTS The conventional wisdom has long stated that a player needed three to four good weeks to keep his TOUR card or, in this case, qualify for the Playoffs. That still seems to hold true for most players. There were eight players, though, who failed to qualify for the Playoffs despite posting multiple top-10s. Sergio Garcia finished 128th in the FedExCup despite having three top-10s, while Martin Piller, Chad Campbell, Tom Lovelady, Ben Silverman, David Hearn, Jim Furyk and Cameron Percy had two apiece. All of Garcia’s top-10s came in consecutive starts (T7, WGC-Mexico; 4th, Valspar; T9, WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play). Those three starts accounted for 81.5 percent of his points this season. Piller has had two top-10s in each of his past two seasons but has missed the Playoffs both times. Sixteen of the players who made the FedExCup Playoffs earned more than three-quarters of their points in their top three finishes. Eighty-seven of the 125 Playoffs qualifiers players earned more than half their points in their top three starts. Here’s a look at the players who earned the highest percentage of their points in their three highest finishes: Bubba Watson, who’s fifth in the FedExCup standings, and Patton Kizzire, who’s 15th, are the highest-ranked players to accumulate the bulk of their points in a trio of events. Watson earned 1,550 for his three wins this season; he earned 329 points in his other 17 starts. His victories accounted for half of his top-25s this season. Five of his six top-25s were top-10s. He also finished T5 at the Masters and T9 at the WGC-Mexico Championship. Kizzire won his first two PGA TOUR titles this season and had a T4 at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. He has not had a top-25 since his 12th-place finish in the WGC-Mexico Championship, though. He earned 87.5% of his FedExCup points by the Sony Open in Hawaii, site of this season’s second victory. Sung Kang’s only top-10s were a pair of third-places, at the CIMB Classic and Quicken Loans National. Those two events alone accounted for 73.5 percent of his FedExCup points. Andrew Landry won the Valero Texas Open, was runner-up to Jon Rahm in a playoff at the CareerBuilder Challenge and had a fourth-place finish at The RSM Classic, which was won by former Arkansas teammate Austin Cook. The Valero and CareerBuilder alone accounted for 71.6 percent of his FedExCup points. PERCENTAGE EARNED IN BACK-TO-BACK STARTS Professional golf can be a frustrating pursuit because your best play often comes in a brief burst. After that short taste of your potential, the rest of the year can feel like a struggle.  Here’s a look at the players who earned the highest percentage of their points in back-to-back starts (Note: I left off players whose lone top-10 was a win off of this list): Twenty-one of the Playoffs qualifiers earned more than half their points in back-to-back starts. It was interesting to find a player like Jon Rahm on this list. He’s known for his consistency, and for good reason. He has 20 top-10s in 51 career TOUR starts. He started 2018 with a solo 2nd at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and win at the CareerBuilder Challenge, a run that lifted him to 2nd in the FedExCup standings. Aaron Wise burst onto the scene in May with his runner-up to Jason Day at Wells Fargo, which preceded his victory at the AT&T Byron Nelson. Those two starts accounted for nearly 70 percent of his points. The Rookie of the Year Candidate also finished T6 at the World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational but he has missed more than half his cuts this season. J.B. Holmes finished fourth in his third start of the season, the Farmers Insurance Open, but he struggled in the spring and fell outside the top 125 in the FedExCup. Then he finished third at the FedEx St. Jude and T2 at the Travelers in consecutive June starts to clinch his Playoffs berth. Phil Mickelson also was among the players who earned a bulk of his points in one spectacular stretch. He had four consecutive top-6 finishes in February and March, including his win at the World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship and runner-up to Potter at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He earned 922 points in those four starts. That’s 59.6 percent of his season earnings. In fact, Mickelson earned 74.3 percent of his FedExCup points by March 4, when he won in Mexico. He has just one top-10, at T5 at Wells Fargo, since. PERCENTAGE EARNED IN FALL Alex Cejka appears on the above list because of his runner-up at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open and T9 at the OHL Classic at Mayakoba. Those are his only top-10s of the season. He has just one other top-25 finish. He leads the list of players who earned the highest percentage of their points in the fall portion of the season. Eight players earned more than half their points in the eight events played last fall. PERCENTAGE EARNED AFTER JULY 1 Other players saved their best play for last. Several were players who were outside the top 125 before getting hot in the summer. They withstood the pressure of an approaching deadline and played their way into the postseason with a strong finishing kick. Here are the players who earned the largest percentage of their points after July 1. It should be no surprise that Francesco Molinari and Michael Kim lead this list. Kim won the John Deere, while Molinari had two wins (Quicken Loans National, The Open) and a runner-up to Kim at the Deere in three July starts. He also finished T6 at the PGA Championship, as well. Brandt Snedeker, who missed the second half of last season with a sternum injury, ranked outside the top 125 as late as June. He didn’t have a top-10 until June, then finished with four of them in his final eight starts of the regular season. Three of his top-10s came after July. He finished T3 at A Military Tribute at the Greenbrier and T8 at the RBC Canadian Open before his win at the Wyndham. Molinari, Joel Dahmen, Bronson Burgoon and Sam Ryder all shared second at the John Deere. They were eight shots behind Kim, who won with the TOUR’s best Strokes Gained: Putting performance of the season. Burgoon, Dahmen and Ryder were all outside the top 125 when July began, but they all had multiple top-10s in that month. Dahmen had four top-15s in July. Burgoon earned 67.7 percent of his points in three consecutive July starts, finishing T6-T30-T2 in three consecutive weeks. Dahmen earned 62.1 percent of his points in July. Ryder earned 52.9 percent of his points in back-to-back starts, the T2 at Deere and T7 at Barbasol. He also finished fifth in Houston. Those three starts accounted for 77.8 percent of his points this season. NOTES * Two players — Trey Mullinax and J.T. Poston — qualified for the Playoffs while playing exclusively with the conditional status that comes from finishing between Nos. 126-150 in last year’s FedExCup. Mullinax finished 95th in this season’s standings after finishing 137th last season. A runner-up at the Valero Texas Open, where he shot a third-round 62, accounted for 46 percent of his points. Poston finished 110th in this season’s standings after finishing 132nd last season. Both of his top-10s this season were top-five finishes, accounting for 40 percent of his points. * Richy Werenski and Scott Brown both played 31 times in the regular season, the most among Playoffs participants. Brooks Koepka and Tyrrell Hatton made the fewest starts among Playoffs qualifiers. They played 13 times. * As stated above, Charley Hoffman was the only player to qualify for the Playoffs without a top-10 this season. Nine players quallified with just one top-10.  Daniel Berger’s lone top-10 was a T6 at the U.S. Open, where he played in the final group. C.T. Pan had his two best finishes of the season in his final two starts, finishing T11 at Barracuda and T2 at the Wyndham. Here’s a look at the full list, in order of FedExCup ranking: 60. Ted Potter Jr., 1* 63. C.T. Pan, 1 66. Michael Kim, 1* 77. Satoshi Kodaira, 1* 79. James Hahn, 1 89. Daniel Berger, 1 97. Rory Sabbatini, 1 102. Nick Watney, 1 123. Jhonattan Vegas, 1 * – lone top-10 was a win

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PALM BEACH GARDENS, Fla. – That three-hole stretch late on PGA National’s back nine earned the nickname “The Bear Trap� by intimidating even the world’s best players. Justin Thomas conquered it to earn a spot in the final group at The Honda Classic. He birdied the back nine’s two water-lined par-3s, Nos. 15 and 17, to shoot 65. He’s one shot behind 54-hole leader Luke List, a 33-year-old who’s seeking his first PGA TOUR win. Thomas is nearly a decade younger, but already owns seven victories and is the reigning FedExCup champion. Thomas’ 65 matched Alex Noren for the low round of the week. “To play the Bear trap in 2 under was stealing, I felt like,� said Thomas, who hit 6-iron on both holes before making birdie putts of approximately 15 feet. There were only four birdies on No. 15 Saturday and only 11 birdies on the 17th. Thomas, who’s No. 9 in the FedExCup, could take over the lead with a win. He already owns one win this season, at the CJ CUP @ NINE BRIDGES. That’s not the only reason he’s hoping for a victory. Winning at the notoriously-tough PGA National would be a point of pride. “Half of my wins, or a decent amount of my wins, have been on easier golf courses, so it would be cool to get it done at a place like this,� he said. The par-70 Champion Course has played to a 72.2 scoring average this week, which would rank it as the toughest this season if the scoring holds. There’s only 10 players under par after 54 holes. List is one shot ahead of Thomas and Webb Simpson, while Tommy Fleetwood and List’s former roommate, Jamie Lovemark, are two shots back.   SHOT OF THE DAY  NOTABLES Rory McIlroy salvaged a 73 after being 6 over on his first eight holes. McIlroy won here in 2012 and was in a playoff in 2014, but this was his eighth consecutive over-par round at PGA National. He’s 22 over in those eight rounds. Tiger Woods hit a season-high nine fairways and 13 greens en route to his first sub-70 round of the season. Woods, who’s even par, trails List by seven shots. On Saturday’s first 11 holes, he hit 10 approach shots within 25 feet of the hole. “It could have been even lower,� Woods said. His Sunday playing partner will be Sam Burns, a 21-year-old Web.com Tour player. Burns turned pro last year after his sophomore season at LSU. He was the 2017 Nicklaus Award winner as the top player in college golf. Click here for more on his round. Webb Simpson will start the final round one shot off the lead as he seeks his first victory since 2013. Last season, Simpson qualified for the TOUR Championship for the first time in four years. He shot a bogey-free 66 on Saturday, making birdies on 3, 8, 9 and 13. Alex Noren matched Thomas for the low round of the tournament with a 65 on Saturday. Noren, who lost a playoff to Jason Day at the Farmers Insurance Open, will start the final round within three shots of the lead after making eagle on 18. Noren’s 65 was a 10-shot improvement over his second round. CALL OF THE DAY QUOTABLES My responsibility tomorrow is to go out there and put something in the red and post a numberI don’t want to watch myself. SUPERLATIVES Low round – Thomas and Noren both fired 65 on Saturday. Those are the lowest rounds this week. Hardest hole – The 479-yard, par-4 sixth hole played to a 4.46 scoring average Saturday. There were only two birdies. Easiest hole – The 556-yard, par-5 18th played to a 4.7 scoring average. Noren made one of three eagles on the hole. There were 24 birdies, as well.

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